Ocena prognozy ludności GUS 2003 z perspektywy aglomeracji warszawskiej

Demographic forecasts constitute an important information input for economic and social policies, as well as for a spatial organisation, which areas are crucial from the point of view of the Warsaw agglomeration. The paper aims at evaluating the recent population forecast of the Central Statistical Office for the period 2003-2030 in the context of the expected population changes of the capital city. The analysis concentrates on three elements of a forecast: the demographic data, the model of population dynamics, and assumptions on particular components of population change. Regarding data, it is argued that the current system of population statistics in Poland does not provide credible information on population stocks and structures, which causes a bias in the estimation of intensity of demographic events. As the main problem comes from the incompatibility of definitions, appropriate changes in legislation seem to be necessary. With respect to the model, the forecast should be prepared using a multi-regional model rather than the cohort-component method. The assumptions underestimate the role of migration (especially internal immigration to and international emigration from Warsaw) in the demographic development of the city. Hence, authors are of the opinion that the forecasted decline of the Warsaw population from the (underestimated) 1,688 thousand in 2002 to 1,532 thousand in 2030 is not realistic. It is argued that a population forecast for Warsaw should consider the specificity of the capital city and the whole agglomeration, which is an important migration destination for labour force from other regions of Poland. According to international standards, such a forecast should be made for the resident population. The 2003-based population forecast of the Central Statistical Office does not meet these criteria and thus can be hardly used for socio-economic policy purposes, spatial organisation, and development plans for the city and the Warsaw agglomeration

Internal Migration and Regional Population Dynamics in Europe: Czech Case Study

Report prepared for the Council of Europe (Directorate of Social and Economic Affairs, Population and Migration Division) and for European Commission (Directorate General V, Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs, Unit E1, Analysis and Research on the Social Situation) Czech Republic has experienced, over the last decade, quite a balanced population system with low growth. This has changed recently and from 1994 we noted a decrease in population partially offset by international migration, for the time being mainly temporary labour circular movements. The decreasing trend may well continue due to future replacement in the reproductive ages of large female cohorts with much smaller cohorts, currently aged 0-15 years. Ales and Simek (1996) expect by the year 2020 a population decrease of at least 471 thousand (high variant). International migration will probably reduce to some extent the effect of negative natural increase. In terms of population dynamics the most important feature we have observed is slow but clear deconcentration of population from large cities to suburban areas. The main gains are observed in medium size towns and smaller communities at the expense of large cities and rural areas. However, the migration factor plays a lesser role than in the past. Net migration is low and migration effectiveness is very limited. The relationship between migration and other variables (population density, level of urbanisation) is rather weak. Unemployment has limited negative impacts on migration flows. No doubt, this may change when the serious restructuring of industry starts and unemployment increases - an almost certain scenario given the Czech Republic's willingness to join the European Union. The main enigma of the Czech migration system is its future dynamics. So far migration has been low, but with the development of the economy, including the housing market, improvement of telecommunication and increasing wealth of the society one may expect that migration trends would contribute much more to the regional population dynamics. The large units for which migration data were available in the Czech Republic reduce the number of inter-unit migrations, increase the number of intra-unit migrations, and in effect blur the picture of mobility, which anyway is quite low. Another factor, which made the analysis somewhat difficult is the mixture of signals sent to the economy by the Czech government. This mixture has confused professional economists, not to speak of ordinary people

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing

Vnitřní migrace a regionální populační dynamika - Česká republika na pozadí evropských trendů

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LONG-TERM REGIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION IN EUROPE - ASSESSMENT METHOD AND SELECTED RESULTS

The paper presents a method of assessment of the long-term impact of migration on the development of population and labour force in 287 regions of Europe in 31 countries. The first stage of the study was to prepare population projections in several variants. An important issue was to address the problem of the availability and quality of data on international migration. The measurement of the impact of migration on total population and labour force was conducted by comparing the percentage changes in population and labour force obtained in various simulations. The impact on the age structure was examined by analyzing demographic and labour force dependency ratios. A method of comparing the impact of various components of population change: natural change and different categories of migration flows (extra-European migration, international migration within Europe and internal migration) was proposed. In the second part of the paper, selected results of the simulations, showing potential long-term consequences of the observed migration flows, were presented. Special attention was paid to the regional differences in the consequences

INVESTING IN YOUR FUTUREThis report presents results of an

within the framework of the ESPON 2013 Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The partnership behind the ESPON Programme consists of the EU Commission and the Member States of the EU27, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Each partner is represented in the ESPO

The Impact of Demographic and Migration Flows on Serbia

Like almost all the European countries, Serbia is experiencing population ageing as a result of low fertility and increasing life expectancy. At the same time, economic activity rates there are lower than in many other countries. Negative natural change and emigration mean that Serbia’s overall population is declining. Will these processes continue into the future? How might fertility, mortality and economic activity develop and what impact will this have on population and labour force size and structures? What effect might Serbia’s potential membership of the European Union have? What, in particular, are the potential migration scenarios and their possible consequences? Which policies might be the most effective in counter-balancing population ageing and the potential labour deficit? To answer these questions, demographic experts from the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, IOM Warsaw and the Institute of Social Sciences in Belgrade conducted an impact study in order to provide a better understanding of the consequences of demographic and migratory trends for Serbia in the medium term, which is to say, thirty years. This publication gives an account of both the research conducted within that study and its results. In Chapter 2, the research methods adopted are described and the basic indicators defined. Chapter 3 contains an overview of past demographic, migratory and economic activity trends and a description of the assumptions for the future adopted in the forecasts. The forecast results, including a discussion of the impact of migration, are presented in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 considers various policy developments, while the Annex discusses selected issues in respect of data