Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China

China's household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-saving profile has become U-shaped. Using a panel of urban Chinese households covering 1989-2006, we document a sharp increase in income uncertainty. While the permanent variance of household income was stable, the transitory variance rose sharply. Based on these estimates, we calibrate a buffer-stock savings model and show that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms lead younger and older households, respectively, to raise their saving rates. These two factors account for over half of the increase in China's urban household savings rate and the U-shaped age-profile of savings.China, household savings, income uncertainty, pension reforms, buffer-stock savings

Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?

From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household saving rate in China rose by 7 percentage points, to about one quarter of disposable income. We use household-level data to explain why households are postponing consumption despite rapid income growth. Tracing cohorts over time indicates a virtual absence of consumption smoothing over the life cycle. Saving rates have increased across all demographic groups although the age profile of savings has an unusual pattern in recent years, with younger and older households having relatively high saving rates. We argue that these patterns are best explained by the rising private burden of expenditures on housing, education, and health care. These effects and precautionary motives may have been amplified by financial underdevelopment, as reflected in constraints on borrowing against future income and low returns on financial assets.

Electoral rules, political competition and fiscal spending : regression discontinuity evidence from Brazilian municipalities

We exploit a discontinuity in Brazilian municipal election rules to investigate whether political competition has a causal impact on policy choices. In municipalities with less than 200,000 voters mayors are elected with a plurality of the vote. In municipalities with more than 200,000 voters a run-off election takes place among the top two candidates if neither achieves a majority of the votes. At a first stage, we show that the possibility of runoff increases political competition. At a second stage, we use the discontinuity as a source of exogenous variation to infer causality from political competition to fiscal policy. Our second stage results suggest that political competition induces more investment and less current spending, particularly personnel expenses. Furthermore, the impact of political competition is larger when incumbents can run for reelection, suggesting incentives matter insofar as incumbents can themselves remain in office.Electoral Systems; Strategic Voting; Political Competition; Regression Discontinuity; Fiscal Spending. JEL Codes: H72; D72; C14; P1

General behavior of the effective nucleon-nucleon interaction as a function of the relative velocity

We have studied volume integrals of the central part of optical potentials extracted from data analyses for a variety of light and heavy systems. The data-extracted integrals present a quite simple behavior as a function of the relative velocity between target and projectile. This behavior is system independent and, therefore, it reflects a feature of the effective nucleon-nucleon interaction itself. The overall results are in good agreement with the predictions of the São Paulo potential, which is a model for the nuclear interaction that so far has been employed mostly in analyses of heavy-ion reactions

Investigation of Coulomb dipole polarization effects on reactions involving exotic nuclei

We have analyzed elastic scattering angular distributions and total reaction cross sections of the exotic nuclei Li9,11 on Pb208, at energies below and above the Coulomb barrier. For this purpose, we have used an optical potential with no adjustable parameters, composed by the nuclear São Paulo potential, derived from the nonlocal nature of the interaction, and the Coulomb dipole polarization potential, derived from the semiclassical theory of Coulomb excitation. Within this formalism, we identified an unusual long-range absorption for the Li11+Pb208 system, which is dominated by the Coulomb interaction. We compare it to the absorption mechanisms observed for He6+Pb208 which, unlike those of Li11+Pb208, take place at small interacting distances, where both Coulomb and nuclear interactions are important. The proposed approach shows to be a fundamental basis to study reactions involving exotic nuclei

The myth of post-reform income stagnation: Evidence from Brazil and Mexico

Economic policies are often judged by a handful of statistics, some of which may be biased during periods of change. We estimate the income growth implied by the evolution of food demand and durable good ownership in post-reform Brazil and Mexico, and find that changes in consumption patterns are inconsistent with official estimates of near stagnant incomes. That is attributed to biases in the price deflator. The estimated unmeasured income gains are higher for poorer households, implying marked reductions in “real” inequality. These findings challenge the conventional wisdom that post-reform income growth was low and did not benefit the poor

Entradas de capital: el papel de los controles

Este escrito analiza el manejo de las entradas de capital en los mercados emergentes. Revisa las principales herramientas de política, incluidas la política fiscal y monetaria, la política cambiaria, la intervención en el mercado de cambios, la regulación prudencial doméstica y los controles al capital. Una conclusión clave es que si la economía funciona cerca del potencial, el nivel de reservas es adecuado, la tasa de cambio no está subvaluada y es probable que las entradas sean transitorias, el uso de controles al capital –además de la política prudencial y macroeconómica– se justifica como parte del conjunto de herramientas de política para manejar las entradas. La evidencia de la crisis actual sugiere que los controles encaminados a lograr una estructura de obligaciones externas menos riesgosa redujeron la fragilidad financiera y aumentaron la resiliencia ante caídas del crecimiento

Entradas de capital: el papel de los controles

This paper analyzes the management of surges in capital inflows to Emerging Markets. It reviews the main policy tools, including fiscal and monetary policy, exchange rate policy, foreign exchange market intervention, domestic prudential regulation, and capital controls. A key conclusion is that, if the economy is operating near potential, if the level of reserves is adequate, if the exchange rate is not undervalued, and if the flows are likely to be transitory, then use of capital controls –in addition to both prudential and macroeconomic policy– is justified as part of the policy toolkit to manage inflows. Evidence from the current crisis suggests that controls aimed at achieving a less risky external liability structure reduced financial fragilities and increased growth resilience.capital inflows, capital controls, financial crisis

Elastic scattering, inelastic excitation, and 1 n pick-up transfer cross sections for 10 B + 120 Sn at energies near the Coulomb barrier

The 10 B + 120 Sn reaction has been systematically studied at laboratory energies around the Coulomb barrier: E LAB = 31.5 , 33.5, 35.0, and 37.5 MeV. Cross sections for the elastic scattering and some reaction processes have been measured: excitation to the 1 + state of 10 B ; excitation to the 2 + and 3 − states of 120 Sn ; and the one-neutron pick-up transfer 120 Sn ( 10 B , 11 B ) 119 Sn . Coupled reaction channel (CRC) calculations have been performed in the context of the double-folding São Paulo potential. The theoretical calculations result in a good overall description of the experimental angular distributions. The effect on the theoretical elastic-scattering angular distributions of couplings to the inelastic and transfer states (through the CRC calculations) and to the continuum states (through continuum-discretized coupled-channels calculations) has been investigated.Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia–Física Nuclear e Aplicações (INCT-FNA) 464898/2014-5Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad de España y el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) FIS2014-51941-P,Junta de Andalucía. FQM-160Programa de investigación e innovación de la Unión Europea Horizonte 2020. 65400

Systematical study of the optical potential for systems like A+ 58Ni from sub-barrier data analyses

Elastic scattering differential cross sections were measured for the 28Si158Ni system at sub-barrier energies. The corresponding nuclear potential was compared with earlier results of systems like A158Ni. The present data also allowed the determination of the 28Si nuclear density through an unfolding method. The experimentally extracted 28Si density values are compared with those previously obtained for the 4,6He, 12C, 16,18O nuclei. We present a critical discussion of the absolute precision obtained for the density parameters extracted from the data analyses