New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time

This paper presents ideas and methods underlying the construction of an indicator that tracks the euro area GDP growth, but, unlike GDP growth, (i) is updated monthly and almost in real time; (ii) is free from hort-run dynamics. Removal of short-run dynamics from a time series, to isolate the mediumlong-run component, can be obtained by a band-pass filter. However, it is well known that band-pass filters, being two-sided, perform very poorly at the end of the sample. New Eurocoin is an estimator of the medium- long-run component of the GDP that only uses contemporaneous values of a large panel of macroeconomic time series, so that no end-of-sample deterioration occurs. Moreover, as our dataset is monthly, New Eurocoin can be updated each month and with a very short delay. Our method is based on generalized principal components that are designed to use leading variables in the dataset as proxies for future values of the GDP growth. As the medium- long-run component of the GDP is observable, although with delay, the performance of New Eurocoin at the end of the sample can be measured.coincident indicator, band-pass filter, large-dataset factor models, generalized principal components

New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time

Removal of short-run dynamics from a stationary time series to isolate the medium to long-run component, can be obtained by a band-pass filter. However, band pass filters are infinite moving averages and can therefore deteriorate at the end of the sample. This is a well-known result in the literature isolating the business cycle in integrated series. We show that the same problem arises with our application to stationary time series. In this paper we develop a method to obtain smoothing of a stationary time series by using only contemporaneous values of a large dataset, so that no end-of-sample deterioration occurs. Our construction is based on a special version of Generalized Principal Components, which is designed to use leading variables in the dataset as proxies for missing future values in the variable of interest. Our method is applied to the construction of New Eurocoin, an indicator of economic activity for the euro area. New Eurocoin is an estimate, in real time, of the medium to long-run component of the euro area GDP growth, which performs equally well within and at the end of the sample. As our dataset is monthly and most of the series are updated with a short delay, we are able to produce a monthly, real-time indicator. An assessment of its performance as an approximation of the medium to long-run GDP growth, both in terms of fitting and turning-point signaling, is provided.Coincident Indicator, Band-pass Filter, Large-dataset Factor Models, Generalized Principal Components

ELECTRONIC AND MAGNETIC PROPERTIES OF IMPURITIES AND CLUSTERS ON METAL SURFACES

2002/2003La struttura elettronica ed il magnetismo di atomi singoli e impurezze di metalli di transizione deposti su superfici metalliche sono stati studiati per mezzo di tecniche dicroiche di assorbimento dei raggi X (XMCD) e misure di magnetizzazione, in alti campi magnetici ed a temperature criogeniche. Le caratteristiche uniche delle XMCD nell'investigare sia momenti magnetici di spin che orbitali con selettività chimica sono state applicate a sistemi estremamente diluiti, con concentrazione di superficie dell'ordine di 1012 atomi cm-2 , fino al limite di atomi isolati. Questo genere di misure è stato applicato ai sistemi di impurezze di superficie soltanto in ultimi anni grazie alla disponibilità di sorgenti di radiazione di sincrotrone di elevata brillanza. Ad oggi queste misure rappresentano un esempio di punta nello studio sul magnetismo delle impurezze di superficie. l risultati sono riportati per tre gruppi di sistemi: Impurezze di V e Mn sulla superficie dei metalli alcalini (Cs, K, Na); atomi isolati di Mn, V, Fe, Co sulla superficie Cu(100) ed atomi isolati di Co su Pt(111 ).Inoltre è presentato uno studio della distribuzione dei momenti magnetici di uno strato monoatomico di manganese accoppiato alla superficie Fe(1 00). Il manganese su potassio è stato indicato possedere una configurazione elettronica simile a quella atomica d5 . Questa configurazione elettronica è particolarmente stabile per i piccoli cambiamenti di ibridazione indotti dal cambiamento della densità elettronica nei dai metalli alcalini. Se l'ibridazione è ulteriormente aumentata come nel caso di atomi di M n deposti su Al(1 00) le caratteristiche spettroscopiche che si evidenziano in strutture di multipletti atomici negli spettri sono soppresse e con esse il magnetismo. Le impurezze di vanadio sulle superfici alcaline mostrano una configurazione elettronica che non più così simile a quella degli atomi liberi, come ad esempio le configurazioni d o d4 .11 momento orbitale è trovato essere piccolo, minore di 0.5 f.ls, rispetto al momento orbitale delle configurazioni puramente atomiche, ma in similitudine con esse è allineato antiparallelamente al momento di spin. Inoltre il momento orbita le diminuisce risalendo lungo la colonna dei metalli alcalini (gruppo 1 A della tabella periodica degli elementi), cioè andando dal Cs al Li, mentre la densità elettronica è aumentata. Questo effetto è legato all'aumento dell'ibridazione dovuta alla maggiore densità elettronica. l momenti magnetici misurati sono dell'ordine di 3 f.ls e non possono essere spiegati con parametri puramente atomici. Due meccanismi possibili vengono proposti per spiegare l'estinzione parziale del momento orbitale: l'effetto di un debole campo cristallino e l'effetto dell'ibridazione in concomitanza con maggiore larghezza dello stato regato di Friedel nel caso dei primi elementi della serie dei metallo di transizione 3d. Gli atomi isolati di Fe sulla superficie del Cu(1 00) mostrano una grande anisotropia magnetica, di 1,5 me V/atomo ed un momento magnetico orbitale aumentato rispetto al Fedi volume. Il substrato di Cu non contribuisce considerevolmente all'anisotropia come nel caso del Co su platino. All'opposto gli atomi isolati di Co su Cu(100) non mostrano alcuni dicroismo e quindi alcun magnetismo. Questo risultato è spiegato in termini di effetto Kondo, poiché i singoli atomi di Co sono stati trovati per essere un sistema di Kondo con T K=88 K. Un confronto dei dati sperimentali per impurezze di V, M n, Fe e Co su Cu(1 00) con il comportamento magnetico calcolato dei adatomi lungo la serie 3d, mostra un buon accordo generale, ma con deviazioni importanti per le impurezze di Co e di V. Atomi singoli atomi di Co sulla superficie del Pt(111) hanno una straordinaria anisotropia magnetica di circa 9,2 meV/atomo (circa 1000 volte quella del Co di volume) ed ad oggi la più alta energia di anisotropia magnetica misurata per un sistema magnetico. L'origine di un effetto cosi' grande risiede in un momento orbitale aumentato dalla ridotta coordinazione del singolo atomo, alla rottura di simmetria sulla superficie ed all'effetto dell'ibridazione del platino, conseguenza di un mescolamento di stati 3d-5d tra Co ePt, che porta il substrato a contribuire all'anisotropia magnetica totale.The electronic structure and the magnetism of transition metal single atoms and magnetic impurities on metal surfaces have been studied by means of x-ray absorption dichroic techniques (XMCD, and magnetization measurements) in high magnetic fields and at low temperatures. The unique capabilities of XMCD to probe the both spin and orbital magnetic moments with element selectivity have been applied to diluted systems with low surface concentration (1012 atoms cm-2 ) down to the limit of isolated atoms. This kind of measurements have been applied to surface impurity systems only in the last few year thanks to the availability of high flux and brilliance synchrotron radiation sources. At the present these measurements represent the state of the art in the study of the magnetism of surface impurities. Results are reported for three different classes of systems: Mn and V impurities on the surface of alkali metals (Cs, K, N a); M n, V, Fe, Co single atoms on the Cu(1 00) surface an d Co single atoms on the Pt(111) surface. Furthermore results have been presented, regarding the magnetic moment distribution of a Mn monolayer coupled to the Fe(1 00) surface. Manganese on potassium has been shown to possess an atomic like magnetic d5 electronic configuration. This electronic configuration is particularly stable for small hybridization changes induced by alkali metals of increased electronic density. lf the hybridization is further increased as on Al(100) the spectroscopic features related to atomic multiplets are suppressed together with magnetism. Vanadium impurities on alkali metal surfaces also show atomic multiplet features. The electronic configuration is not an atomic-like configuration as d3 or d4 . The orbital moment is found to be small, less than 0.5 !-ls with respect to the purely atomic configurations and to be antiparallel to the spin. lt decreases along the alkali metals column (group 1A) of the periodic table, as the electronic density is increased, i.e. going from Cs to Li. This effect is related to an increased hybridization with the substrate due to the larger electronic density. The measured magnetic moments are of the order of 3)-ls, and cannot be explained with simple atomic parameters. Two possible mechanisms have been proposed to explain the partial quenching of the orbital moment, the effect of a weak crystal field and the effect of hybridization through the larger width of Friedel resonant bound state for the early elements of 3d transition metal series. Fe single atoms on Cu(100) surface have a large ot1f of plane magnetic anisotropy of 1.5 meV/atom and enhanced orbital magnetic moment with the respect to the bulk. The Cu substrate does not contribute considerably to the anisotropy as in the case of Co o n Pt. At the apposite Co single atoms on Cu(1 00) surface do not show any dichroism an d hence magnetism. This result ca n be explained on the basis of the Kondo effect, since Co single atoms have been found to be a Kondo system with T K=88 K. A comparison of the experimental data for V, Mn, Fe, Co impurities on Cu(100) with the calculated magnetic behavior of adatoms along the 3d series, gives an overall reasonable agreement, with important deviations for V and Co impurities. Co single atoms on the Pt(111) surface have an extraordinary large out of plane magnetic anisotropy of about 9.2 meV/atom due to the interplay between an enhanced orbital moment, consequence reduced coordination of the single atom, at the surface, and the effect of Pt hybridization, consequence of a d-d mixing between Co and Pt orbitals. This result is of particular relevance since this magnetic anisotropy is the highest measured, by now, for any system.XVI Ciclo1971Versione digitalizzata della tesi di dottorato cartacea

Narratives from Jenin Refugee Camp: Children as extreme defence against the disintegration of family and community

This paper aim to explore practices that create serious risks to the physical and psychological  health of Palestinian children. The typical stories of three children interviewed at Jenin Refugee Camp are subjected to content analysis. This analysis also extends to the micro and macro social developmental context of these children (which the share with the entire population of the camp). Key themes emerging from the analysis include the need to "redeem" grand parents and parents (depressed, preoccupied, without hope), intolerance of imprisonment and being coerced into confined spaces, which are invaded on daily bases, the need to spaces to play in, the acceleration, through violence, toward adulthood. The motivations leading to dangerous practices and risk and protective factors are discussed

A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle

This paper is the result of the Bank of Italy-CEPR project to construct a monthly coincident indicator of the business cycle of the euro area. The index is estimated on the basis of a harmonized data set of monthly statistics of the euro area (951 series) which we constructed from a variety of sources. We use the information of this large panel to obtain an indicator which has three characteristics: (i) it provides real time information on monthly coincident activity since it is updated as new information become available in a non-synchronous way; (ii) it is cleaned from noise originated from measurement error and idiosyncratic national and sectoral dynamics; (iii) it is cleaned from seasonal and short-run dynamics through a Þlter that requires very little revision at the end of the sample. Unlike other methods used in the literature, the procedure takes into consideration the cross-country as well as the within-country correlation structure and exploits all information on dynamic cross-correlations. As a byproduct of our analysis, we provide a characterization of the commonality and dynamic relations of the series in the data set with respect to the coincident indicator and a dating of the euro area cycle.business cycle, dynamic factor model

Moneta, finanza e crisi. Marx nel circuito monetario

The so-called ‘Theory of Monetary Circuit’ not only represents an original Marxian rereading of Keynesian macroeconomic categories, but also provides an essential tool for the analysis (and the critique) of recent developments in capitalist economies, including the financialisation process. Starting from a ‘circuitist’ view, it is argued that the twin financial crises of 2000 and 2007 can be regarded as the ‘friction points’ of the law of creation of value and surplus value (that still relies on the extension and intensification of the exploitation of the living labour in the production sphere) with the private realisation of value created (i.e. the historically determined way of setting relative prices, including return rates on financial assets) under current financially sophisticated capitalist economies

Self-Other Positioning in Obesity: A Pilot Study Using Repertory Grid Technique

Self-other positioning was investigated in a group of obese youths in order to empirically test the clinical hy-pothesis – based on the constructionist theory of Family Semantic Polarities – that obese people are affected by a negative self-perception and low self-esteem. Repertory grid technique was used with 30 participants (15 obese-overweight and 15 control) to elicit and compare their personal constructs and assess, via ad hoc measurement indices, the positions they as- signed to the self and significant others in relation to these constructs. The results confirmed the research hypotheses, with obese subjects displaying a tendency to pos ition both self and others at the negative pole of bipolar constructs and reporting greater self-ideal discrepancy. These findings and their limitations are discussed in relation to their clinical applications and in light of the methodologi cal issues arising from the study

Contro il liberoscambismo

The article aims to show that the opposition «welfare or barbarism» is historically linked to the degree of globalization of advanced economies. I argue that the current trend is not the zeroing of the welfare state, but a radical re-definition of it along both «universalist» and «minimalist» lines. In fact, welfare state programmes are being reduced to a unique residual monetary benefit, whose function is to bridge the gap between the actual real wage and the minimum subsistence threshold of the working class. Against this background, this article provides a radical critique to the unconditional, and sometimes apologetic, acceptance of capitalist globalization and of its ideological superstructure, namely, the neo-liberal agenda. In addition, a different idea of the organisation of the economy is proposed, recovering and updating the concept of the «economic planning»

Cross-Border Financial Effects of Global Warming in a Two-Area Ecological SFC Model

We develop an ecological open-economy SFC model that enables testing cross-area interactions among productive sectors, financial markets and the ecosystem. We show that the unequal technical progress across areas, coupled with rising ecological awareness, can force governments of less ecologically efficient areas to move further away from low-carbon assets. We argue that ‘green’ monetary and fiscal policies can be used to tackle climate change and financial instability. However, their effectiveness depends crucially on the impact of cross-border financial flows and growth rate differentials on exchange rates. Without a cross-area policy coordination plan, currency fluctuations can bring about unintended consequences, undermining green policies’ effects

Representações sexuais e (anti)literárias na poesia xamânica de Roberto Piva

This article analyses the representation of sexuality through the literary references in Roberto Piva's shamanic poetry (started with Cyclones, published in 1997). The references to Dante Alighieri’s Divine Comedy as well as to Pier Paolo Pasolini’s works are examples of sexualization because of the way of reading by the Brazilian poet, which enables a writing both full of sexuality and suggestively “anti-literary”. This ambivalence is a particular aspect of the shamanic poetry that, in contemporary times, derives from the ethnopoetry created by the American poet Jerome Rothenberg – which moves between literary and non-literary fields through specific references to particular poets and to (anti)literary movements.Este artigo analisa as representações da sexualidade através das referências literárias na poesia xamânica de Roberto Piva (iniciada em Ciclones, de 1997). Especificamente, as recorrências à Divina Comédia de Dante Alighieri, bem como à obra de Pier Paolo Pasolini, servem de exemplos de sexualização devido à forma como é lida pelo poeta paulistano, leitura esta que possibilita uma escrita também plena de sexualidade, além de sugestivamente “antiliterária”. Essa ambivalência é um aspecto particular de destaque na poética xamânica que, na contemporaneidade, é devedora da etnopoesia criada pelo poeta norte-americano Jerome Rothenberg – a qual também transita entre âmbitos literários e não literários por meio de referências específicas a determinados poetas e correntes (anti)literárias.