Incomplete Regulation, Asymmetric Information and Collusion-Proofness

In an incomplete regulation framework the Regulator cannot replicate all the possible outcomes by himself since he has no influence on some firms present in the market. When facing asymmetric information regarding the regulated firm’s costs, it may be better for the Regulator to allow the other competitors to extract a truthful report from her through side-payments in a collusion and therefore the “Collusion-Proofness Principle” may not hold. In fact, by introducing an exogenous number of unregulated competitors, Social Welfare differences seem to favour a Collusion-Allowing equilibrium. However, such result will strongly depend on the relative importance given by the Regulator to the Consumer Surplus.Incomplete Regulation, Asymmetric Information, Collusion, Market Competition

The written stones of the Montesinho Natural Park : where palaeontology meets popular legend

Deep in the memory of the inhabitants of the region of Montesinho (NE Portugal), there is a legend which talks about the existence of enigmatic pedras escrevidas (="written stones") in the mountains near the village of Guadramil. In the first half of the 20th Century, what used to be considered some kind of rock engravings in quartzite, were studied by archaeologists, which interpreted these signs as a kind of very old (and unknown) pre-Roman writing. A modern geological mapping of the area of the Montesinho Natural Park allowed us to rediscover the original sites of these structures and interpret them as ichnofossils. They occur on the Lower Ordovician quartzites, towards the top of the lower member of the Marao Formation (Floian), which crops out extensively in the area, generating the mountainous relief of the Barreiras Brancas-La Culebra sierra. The study of the locality required two excavating campaigns, supported by the Portuguese Ministry of Science, which involved 40 highschool students during the summer of 2002 and 2003 in an area located 5 km north of Guadramil and very close to the Spanish border. It resulted in the exposure and cleaning of an exceptional surface of 40 square meters with a very vast ichnofossil accumulation, reaching a maximum of 2,000 individual specimens by square metre. All of them correspond to horizontal sections of conical structures created by the spiral displacement of steeply inclined J-shaped burrows, assigned to the arthrophycid forms Daedalus halli (Rouault) and Daedalus labechei (Rouault). Both ichnotaxa are widely known in the "Armorican Quartzite" facies of the Lower Ordovician of SW Europe, where massive occurrences reflect opportunistic colonization events on storm generated sandstones. The spectacular bedding plane concentration of these conical burrows in the locality, and the good preservation of the active backfill on their typical spreite (wing-like) structure, is currently being mapped with the purpose of determining the mathematical model underlying the burrowing pattern and ecospace interaction between the sedimentivorous producers. Anyway, this outstanding palaeontological site of the "pedras escrevidas" has no other counterpart in the world, and is of undisputable value for the Iberian geological heritage. In the near future the locality will be protected and included in the touristic programmes and guides enhancing the natural heritage of the Montesinho Natural Park. The detailed ichnological study of this outcrop is being financed through the PATRIORSI project of the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science (CGL2006-07628/BTE, years 2006-2009) and by the project "Identification, Characterization and Conservation of Geological Heritage: a Geoconservation strategy for Portugal", sponsored by the Portuguese Foundation of Science and Technology (PTDC/CTEGEX/ 64966/2006, years 2006-2009)

Structural dynamic updating using a global optimization methodology

In this article, we present the application of a global optimization technique, in particular the GlobalSearch command from MatLab®, in the updating of structural dynamic models. For comparative purposes, we evaluate the efficiency of the global method relatively to the local search method previously used in the Finite Element Model Updating program. The Finite Element Model Updating programs are designed with the primary purpose of validating and optimizing structural numerical models. The first step for structural optimization process is to idealize the desired behavior of the dynamic model to develop, or collect experimental data of a physical model considered as the reference model. The process begins with the construction, on a finite element program, of a numerical model with initial physical parameters, preferably close to the reference model parameters. The numerical model is then submitted, through a Finite Element Model Updating program, to a successive parametric updating until improving its dynamic behavior described by their natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping properties, be similar to the dynamic behavior of the reference model. The Sequential Quadratic Programming algorithm was already used in the optimization of the Finite Element Model Updating program, and the obtained solutions showed that it can’t achieve the global optimal value of the objective function. This kind of methods, used for nonlinear constrained optimization problems, have, generally, difficulties to achieve the global optimum, since they are local optimization methods.Centre for Mechanical and Materials Technologies (CT2M) and Algoritmi R&D Centreinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Unidades litoestratigráficas do Ordovícico da região de trás-os-Montes (Zona Centro-Ibérica, Portugal)

A recente realizacão de trabalhos, centrados no estabelecimento da bioestratigrafia do Ordovícico do nordeste de Portugal (Zona Centro Ibérica), conduziu a uma profunda revisão litoestratigráfica destes materiais, à luz dos requerimentos litoestratigráficos estabelecidos pelo Guia Estratigráfico Internacional e justificada pela grande proliferação de unidades informais e divisões operativas existentes na região. Esta nova proposta, unificada para a região transmontana, contempla a definição formal de um total de 19 unidades litoestratigráficas, a maioria das quais de natureza sili-ciclástica, repartidas por um grupo, oito formações, sete membros e três camadas. Este estudo permitiu caracterizar e contextualizar diversas unidades atribuídas ao Ordovícico Superior, até agora praticamente ignoradas na região, assim como a detecção de lacunas estratigráficas de grande interesse paleogeográfico. O novo esquema litoestratigráfico, agora apresentado, permite correlacionar de forma precisa e nivelar o conhecimento relativamente à restante Zona Centro Ibérica Portuguesa (Valongo, Buçaco, Amêndoa Mação) e ao restante Ordovícico do sudoeste da Europa

Boletín NUESTRA AMÉRICA XXI - Desafíos y alternativas, num.4, febrero 2017

Una excelente iniciativa del Grupo de Trabajo Crisis y economía mundial, coordinado por María Josefina Morales y Gabriela Roffinelli

Forecasting models analysis for predictive maintenance

IntroductionThis study explores the shift toward predictive maintenance through real-time data analytics to minimize machine downtime and improve machinery insights in industrial environments. Predictive maintenance aims to enable proactive interventions by predicting failures, enhancing operational efficiency.MethodsThe research was conducted in three stages. First, BA Glass equipment was sensorized using OPC Router and PowerStudio SCADA to facilitate real-time data extraction. A predictive maintenance algorithm was then developed in Python to analyze sensor data, predict failures, and trigger alarms. Finally, various forecasting models, including Linear and Polynomial Regression, Simple and Double Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA, and Prophet, were evaluated using a combination of blocked cross-validation and rolling window methodologies. The algorithm calculated performance metrics such as MSE, RMSE, and MAE for different parameter configurations and training sizes.ResultsA comparative analysis between wired and wireless sensors concluded that wireless sensors, although more expensive, were more practical and interchangeable in the factory setting. The results from the evaluation of prediction models showed that the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) model with an additive damped trend and linear models performed best for datasets with daily seasonality and gradual oscillations. For datasets with stable trends and higher frequency oscillations, ARIMA and Prophet models proved to be more accurate.DiscussionThese findings suggest that the choice of sensors and prediction models can significantly impact the effectiveness of predictive maintenance systems. Wireless sensors offer long-term benefits in terms of flexibility and practicality, while the DES model and ARIMA/Prophet models are optimal depending on the dataset characteristics. This research highlights the value of real-time data analytics and predictive models in industrial environments for reducing downtime and improving decision-making