Trend detection in river flow indices in Poland

The issue of trend detection in long time series of river flow records is of vast theoretical interest and considerable practical relevance. Water management is based on the assumption of stationarity; hence, it is crucial to check whether taking this assumption is justified. The objective of this study is to analyse long-term trends in selected river flow indices in small- and medium-sized catchments with relatively unmodified flow regime (semi-natural catchments) in Poland. The examined indices describe annual and seasonal average conditions as well as annual extreme conditions—low and high flows. The special focus is on the spatial analysis of trends, carried out on a comprehensive, representative data set of flow gauges. The present paper is timely, as no spatially comprehensive studies (i.e. covering the entire Poland or its large parts) on trend detection in time series of river flow have been done in the recent 15 years or so. The results suggest that there is a strong random component in the river flow process, the changes are weak and the spatial pattern is complex. Yet, the results of trend detection in different indices of river flow in Poland show that there exists a spatial divide that seems to hold quite generally for various indices (annual, seasonal, as well as low and high flow). Decreases of river flow dominate in the northern part of the country and increases usually in the southern part. Stations in the central part show mostly ‘no trend’ results. However, the spatial gradient is apparent only for the data for the period 1981–2016 rather than for 1956–2016. It seems also that the magnitude of increases of river flow is generally lower than that of decreases

Controls on anastomosis in lowland river systems: Towards process-based solutions to habitat conservation

Anastomosing rivers were historically common around the world before extensive agricultural and industrial development in river valleys. Few lowland anastomosing rivers remain in temperate zones, and the protection of these river-floodplain systems is an international conservation priority. However, the mechanisms that drive the creation and maintenance of multiple channels, i.e. anabranches, are not well understood, particularly for lowland rivers, making it challenging to identify effective management strategies. This study uses a novel multi-scale, process-based hydro-geomorphological approach to investigate the natural and anthropogenic controls on anastomosis in lowland river reaches. Using a wide range of data (hydrologic, cartographic, remote-sensing, historical), the study (i) quantifies changes in the planform of the River Narew, Poland over the last 100 years, (ii) documents changes in the natural and anthropogenic factors that could be driving the geomorphic change, and (iii) develops a conceptual model of the controls of anastomosis. The results show that 110 km of anabranches have been lost from the Narew National Park (6810 ha), a 42% reduction in total anabranch length since 1900. The rates of anabranch loss have increased as the number of pressures inhibiting anabranch creation and maintenance has multiplied. The cessation of localized water level and channel management (fishing dams, water mills and timber rafting), the loss of traditional floodplain activities (seasonal mowing) and infrastructure construction (embanked roads and an upstream dam) are contributing to low water levels and flows, the deposition of sediment at anabranch inlets, the encroachment of common reed (Phragmites australis), and the eventual loss of anabranches. By identifying the processes driving the loss of anabranches, this study provides transferable insights into the controls of anastomosis in lowland rivers and the management solutions needed to preserve the unique anastomosing river pattern and diverse wet grasslands that are central to the conservation value of lowland floodplains

Modelling Climate Change’s Impact on the Hydrology of Natura 2000 Wetland Habitats in the Vistula and Odra River Basins in Poland

Climate change is expected to affect the water cycle through changes in precipitation, river streamflow, and soil moisture dynamics, and therefore, present a threat to groundwater and surface water-fed wetland habitats and their biodiversity. This article examines the past trends and future impacts of climate change on riparian, water-dependent habitats within the special areas of conservation (SAC) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. Hydrological modelling using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was driven by a set of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate models under two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. Changes in the duration of flooding and inundation events were used to assess climate change’s impact on surface water-fed wetland habitats. The groundwater-fed wetlands were evaluated on the basis of changes in soil water content. Information about the current conservation status, threats, and pressures that affect the habitats suggest that the wetlands might dry out. Increased precipitation projected for the future causing increased water supply to both surface water and groundwater-fed wetlands would lead to beneficial outcomes for habitats with good, average, or reduced conservation status. However, habitats with an excellent conservation status that are already in optimum condition could be negatively affected by climate change as increased soil water or duration of overbank flow would exceed their tolerance

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Evidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical crop-weather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon. © 2020, The Author(s)

Comparative studies on promotion of health and life style of hospital staff in Sweden and Poland

Introduction. Recently, an increase has been observed in the number of patients suffering from diseases which are the consequence of an anti-health life style; therefore it is necessary to undertake proper actions in this area, including those addressed to hospital staff. Objectives. 1) Comparison of self-reported state of health and life style between hospital staff in Sweden and Poland, and the motivation of these employees to change the to-date life style for one that is more health promoting. 2) Presentation, based on Swedish experiences in the field of health promotion in hospitals, of the possibilities to implement these changes in Polish conditions. Material and method. The study covered the staff from the following hospitals: 1) hospitals in Ostergotland County, Sweden, and 2) the Ludwik Perzyna Regional Polyclinical Hospital in Kalisz, Poland. The studies were conducted in parallel in Sweden and in Poland during the fourth quarter 2010. The research instrument was a questionnaire form. Results. The following measures should be undertaken by the staff of Polish hospitals: an increase in the consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical activity, organization of workshops aimed at the shaping of skills of coping with stress and relieving stress, assistance in reducing body weight and increasing physical activity. Obligatory breaks at work should be introduced for the consumption of meals and intake of beverages, including water, promotion of fluid replacement would reduce fatigue. An obligatory lunchtime would allow each employee to consume a decent meal, and consequently have respite away from one's own work activities. In order to have a well-functioning staff an employer should, in his/her own interest, decrease potential sick absenteeism, provide incentives for motor activity, e.g. by the organization of groups, reduction of weekly working time on behalf of documented physical activity, or financial support for the purchase of tickets for various forms of physical exercises. Promotion of collective exercise, e.g. common nordic walking for 30 min. during lunch, competition in the largest number of steps made. Promotion of healthy nutrition by the preparation of recipes for meals, several exemplary healthy meals in the form of a healthy alternative breakfast. During this event, a basket of fruit is provided, instead of cakes and sweets. Conclusions. 1) The life style of the staff of health care facilities is more health promoting in Sweden than in Poland. 2) It is possible to change the life style of employees of health care facilities into one that is more health promoting. Changes in this area have been made in Sweden with a great success; therefore, it is worthwhile implementing in Poland these Swedish experiences which may function also in Polish conditions. 3) The foundations of health promotion in enterprises have been known for a long time; however, considering the fact that the comparative studies show that these foundations are more advanced in Sweden, it is necessary that Polish employers devote more attention to this problem, and become interested in Swedish experiences in this area

Structure and Function of Enterocyte in Intrauterine Growth Retarded Pig Neonates

The intestine of intrauterine growth retarded (IUGR) neonates showed different morphology compared to neonates born with normal body weight (NBW). The aim of the present study was to investigate the ultrastructure and proteomic profile of the gut epithelium in IUGR pig neonates with special attention to the digestive and absorptive function. Intestine tissue samples were investigated in 7-day-old IUGR and NBW littermate piglets using histometry, immunofluorescence, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and mass spectrometry analysis. IUGR piglets have shown reduced mucosa and muscularis thickness and an enhanced number of foetal type enterocytes (FTE). SEM studies have shown the lack of the characteristic large-size vacuole in IUGR’s enterocytes. Delayed removal of FTE in IUGR neonates was probably due to the inhibited apoptosis in the apical part of villi and increased apoptosis and reduced mitosis in the crypt region. In the expression of proteins in the intestinal mucosa such as hexokinase I, histones, and prelamin A/C, carbamoyl phosphate was reduced in IUGR neonates. Finally, IUGR intestines showed higher expression of HSPA9 and HSPA5 as apoptosis markers. The data indicate modifications of gut mucosa in IUGRs that may result in slower gut mucosa maturation and reduced utilisation of nutrient as compared to NBW pig neonates

Catchment-Scale Analysis Reveals High Cost-Effectiveness of Wetland Buffer Zones as a Remedy to Non-Point Nutrient Pollution in North-Eastern Poland

Large-scale re-establishment of wetland buffer zones (WBZ) along rivers is regarded as an effective measure in order to reduce non-point source nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pollution in agricultural catchments. We estimated efficiency and costs of a hypothetical establishment of WBZs along all watercourses in an agricultural landscape of the lower Narew River catchment (north-eastern Poland, 16,444 km2, amounting to 5% of Poland) by upscaling results obtained in five sub-catchments (1087 km2). Two scenarios were analysed, with either rewetting selected wetland polygons that collect water from larger areas (polygonal WBZs) or reshaping and rewetting banks of rivers (linear WBZs), both considered in all ecologically suitable locations along rivers. Cost calculation included engineering works necessary in order to establish WBZs, costs of land purchase where relevant, and compensation costs of income forgone to farmers (needed only for polygonal WBZs). Polygonal WBZs were estimated in order to remove 11%–30% N and 14%–42% P load from the catchment, whereas linear WBZs were even higher with 33%–82% N and 41%–87% P. Upscaled costs of WBZ establishment for the study area were found to be 8.9 M EUR plus 26.4 M EUR per year (polygonal WBZ scenario) or 170.8 M EUR (linear WBZ scenario). The latter value compares to costs of building about 20 km of an express road. Implementation of buffer zones on a larger scale is thus a question of setting policy priorities rather than financial impossibility

Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021–2050, and far future: 2071– 2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models—Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment—European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment

Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well