The Effect of social security, demography and technology on retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation ofthe old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and indemography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second partof the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibriummodel with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The modelis able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 andolder. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of thesocial security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technologicaland demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would haveincreased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, asthe latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policycan account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for themost of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

The Effect of Social Security, Demography and Technology on Retirement

This article investigates the causes in the reduction of labor force participation ofthe old. We argue that the changes in social security policy, in technology and indemography may account for most of the changes in retirement over the second partof the last century in the U.S. economy. We develop a dynamic general equilibriummodel with endogenous retirement that embeds social security legislation. The modelis able to match very closely the increase in the retirement rate of males aged 65 andolder. It also quanti es the isolated impact on retirement and on the solvency of thesocial security system of the di¤erent factors. The model suggests that technologicaland demographic changes had a strong in uence on retirement, so that it would haveincreased signi cantly even if the social security rules had not changed. However, asthe latter became much more generous in the past, changes in social security policycan account not only for a sizeable part of the expansion of retirement, but also for themost of the observed increase in the social security expenses as a share of GDP.

Globalization and the Industrial Revolution

This paper argues that trade specialization played an indispensable role in supportingthe Industrial Revolution, allowing the economy to shift resources to the manufacturewithout facing food and raw materials shortage. In our arti cial economy, there are twosectors agriculture and manufacture and the economy is initially closed and under aMalthusian trap. In this economy the industrial revolution entails a transition towards adynamic Heckscher-Ohlin economy. The model reproduces the main stylized facts of thetransition to modern growth and globalization. We show that two-sectors closed-economymodels cannot explain the fall in the value of land relative to wages observed in the 19thcentury and that the transition in this case is much longer than that observed allowingfor trade.

"Síntese e aplicação de ligantes iônofílicos em catálise bifásica : efeito de líquido iônico e mecanismos"

Um dos grandes desafios da catálise moderna é a recuperação e reutilização do sistema catalítico utilizado. Nesse sentido, desenvolveu-se um novo ligante derivado do ácido Kójico, ionicamente marcado com um anel imidazólio. Esse novo ligante ionofílico foi utilizado na preparação de novos complexos de ferro e paládio como centros metálicos, que foram aplicados em diversas reações orgânicas tais como, epoxidações, reduções de olefinas e acoplamentos de Heck e Suzuki. Foram utilizados líquidos iônicos imidazólios como meios reacionais visando uma ancoragem do complexo nesse meio e viabilizandoa realização de reciclos. Para as reações de epoxidação e de redução puderam ser realizadas reações de reciclo, e mesmo após dez reações não houve diminuição da atividade catalítica e nem lixiviação do catalisador. Devido ao ligante conter um marcador de carga positivo, ele se torna uma ótima sonda para estudos mecanísticos utilizando espectrometria de massas com ionização por electrospray. Foi possível detectar e caracterizar diversas espécies transientes, o que propiciou realizar algumas propostas mecanísticas plausíveis ou até mesmo fortalecer propostas já existentes na literatura. _______________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTOne of the great challenges of modern catalysis is the recovery and reuse of the catalytic system. In this sense, we developed a new Kojic acid base ligand, ionically-tagged with an imidazolium ring. This new ionophilic ligand was used to preparing new iron and palladium. They have been applied in several organic reactions such as epoxidations, reduction of olefins and Heck and Suzuki couplings. The imidazolium ionic liquids were used as reaction media to anchor the complex and allow the recycle oh the catalyst. This strategy cold be performed for epoxidation and reduction reactions could be made recycle, and even after ten reactions was no decrease in catalytic activity and no leaching of the catalyst. Due to the positive charge of the ligand, it becomes an excellent probe for mechanistic studiesusing mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. It was possible to detect and characterize various transient species, which led to make plausible mechanistic proposals or even strengthen existing proposals in the literature

The Impact of AIDS on Income and Human Capital

This paper studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It ex-plores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed bythe literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity andthe reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for threeperiods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids beforereaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generationsso that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that themost affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percentpoorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent.These gures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases thesurvival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

Determinantes da rentabilidade do setor hoteleiro português

Um dos objetivos mais importantes para todas as empresas é a maximização do lucro, no sentido de potenciar o seu crescimento e permitir a sua subsistência. Isto torna-se particularmente importante num contexto de mercado global, como o existente atualmente. Neste sentido torna-se pertinente analisar quais os fatores que mais influenciam a rentabilidade. O presente estudo vai incidir sobre o setor hoteleiro português pelo importante papel que têm na economia nacional, procurando investigar quais os determinantes da rentabilidade dos estabelecimentos hoteleiros portugueses e se esses determinantes foram afetados nos anos de crise em Portugal (2010 a 2014). Vai-se também verificar se a pertença a um grupo económico afeta os determinantes do setor hoteleiro português. O estudo desenvolvido tem por base uma amostra de 1008 empresas que representam 25% do setor hoteleiro em Portugal. Esta análise vai ser feita através da aplicação de metodologias de dados em painel estático para o período compreendido entre 2010 e 2019. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a tangibilidade, o crescimento do volume de negócios e a dimensão são fatores determinantes da rentabilidade, medida pelo ROA e ROE. Podemos também observar que a crise e a pertença a um grupo económico alteraram alguns efeitos das variáveis independentes sobre a rentabilidade.One of the most important objectives for all companies is profit maximization, in order to enhance their growth and enable their subsistence. This becomes particularly important in a global market context, as the one existing today. In this sense it becomes pertinent to analyze which factors most influence profitability. This study will focus on the Portuguese hotel sector, due to its important role in the national economy, trying to investigate which are the determinants of profitability of Portuguese hotels and if those determinants were affected in the years of crisis in Portugal (2010 to 2014). It will also verify if belonging to an economic group affects the determinants of the Portuguese hotel sector. The study is based on a sample of 1008 companies representing 25% of the Portuguese hotel sector. This analysis will be done by applying static panel data methodologies for the period between 2010 and 2019. The results obtained suggest that tangibility, turnover growth and size are determinants of profitability, as measured by ROA and ROE. We can also observe that the crisis and belonging to an economic group changed some effects of the independent variables on profitability

PESSOAS COM DEFICIÊNCIA MENTAL OU INTELECTUAL: UM ESTUDO SOBRE CASAMENTO E UNIÃO ESTÁVEL NA PERSPECTIVA DA LEI BRASILEIRA DE INCLUSÃO

This work is subject to the legitimacy of civil marriage and the stable union of people with mental or intellectual disabilities, taking as references the Brazilian inclusion law, the principle of minimal intervention in family relationships and the boundaries of curatorship. The article is scoped to understand the demarcation of the legal extent around the will declared by curators, responsible and supporters, in front of the precepts described in articles 1513, 1550, §2nd, of the Civil Code, article 755, caput and paragraphs of the Code of Civil Procedure. For this, it is employed the methodology dialectical-descriptive and explanatory, founded in the study of the variables pointed out by doctrine, legislation and jurisprudence, in addition to reflection on the evolution of thought around the requirements of existence, validity and effectiveness of matrimony and the pacts of coexistences recorded in the registry of natural people.Este trabajo es objeto de la legitimidad del matrimonio civil y de la unión estable de las personas con discapacidad mental o intelectual, tomando como referencia la ley de inclusión brasileña, el principio de intervención mínima en las relaciones familiares y los limites de la tutela. El artículo tiene el ámbito de entender la demarcatión de la extensión jurídica en torno a la voluntad declarada por curadores, guardianes y simpatizantes, antes de los preceptos descritos en los artículos 1.513, 1.550, § 2, del Código Civil, artículo 755, cabeza y párrafos, del Código de Procedimiento Civil. Para ello se emplea la metodologia dialética-descriptiva y explicativa, fundada en el estúdio de las variables señaladas por la doctrina, la legistación y la jurisprudência, además de la reflexión sobre la evolución del pensamento en torno a los requerimentos de existencia, validez y efectividad del matrimonio y los convênios de convivencia registrados en el notário de las personas físicas.Este trabalho tem por objeto a legitimidade do casamento civil e união estável de pessoas com deficiência mental ou intelectual, tomando como referencial a Lei Brasileira de Inclusão, o princípio da intervenção mínima nas relações de família e os limites da curatela. O artigo tem por escopo compreender a delimitação da extensão legal em torno da vontade declarada por curadores, responsáveis e apoiadores, diante dos preceitos descritos nos artigos 1.513, 1.550, §2º, do Código Civil, artigo 755, caput e parágrafos, do Código de Processo Civil. Para tanto, é empregada a metodologia dialético-descritiva e explicativa, fundada no estudo das variáveis apontadas pela doutrina, legislação e jurisprudência, além da reflexão sobre a evolução do pensamento em torno dos requisitos de existência, validade e eficácia do matrimônio e os pactos de convivências registrados no cartório de pessoas naturais