New tools and approaches to uncertainty estimation in complex ecological models

This dissertation investigates the problem of uncertainty in complex ecological models. The term "complex" is used to convey both the common and scientific meanings. Increasingly, ecological models have become complex because they are more complicated; ecological models are generally multi-variate and multi-leveled in structure. Many ecological models are complex because they simulate the dynamics of complex systems. As a result, and as science moves from the modern/normal to postmodern/post-normal paradigm view of the world, the definition of uncertainty and the problem of uncertainty estimation in models tread the lines between the technical and the philosophical. With this in mind, I have chosen to examine uncertainty from several perspectives and under the premise that the needs and goals of uncertainty estimation, like ecological models themselves, are evolving. Each chapter represents a specific treatment of uncertainty and introduces new methodologies to evaluate the nature, source, and significance of model uncertainty. In the second chapter, 'Determining the significance of threshold values uncertainty in rule-based classification models', I present a sensitivity analysis methodology to determine the significance of uncertainty in spatially-explicit rule-based classification models. In the third chapter, 'Process level sensitivity analysis for complex ecological models', I present a sensitivity analysis methodology at the process level, to determine the sensitivity of a model to variations in the processes it describes. In the fourth chapter, 'A Component Based Approach for the Development of Ecological Simulations', investigate how the process of developing an ecological simulation can be advanced by using component-based simulation frameworks. I conclude with reflection on the future of modeling and studies of uncertainty

Why are decisions in flood disaster management so poorly supported by information from flood models?

Flood simulation models can provide practitioners of Flood Disaster Management with sophisticated estimates of floods. Despite the advantages that flood simulation modeling may provide, experiences have proven that these models are of limited use. Until now, this problem has mainly been investigated by evaluations of which information is demanded by decision-makers versus what models can actually offer. However, the goal of this study is to investigate how model information is exchanged among participants in flood disaster organizations and how this exchange affects the use of modeling information. Our findings indicate that the extent to which a model is useful not only depends on the type and quality of its output, but also on how fast and flexible a model can be. In addition, methods of model use are required that support a fast exchange of model information between participants in the flood disaster organization

Uncovering the origin of ambiguity in nature-inclusive flood infrastructure projects

We aimed to uncover the origin of ambiguity in flood infrastructure projects using Building with Nature (BwN) design principles. BwN is a new approach in flood management that simultaneously integrates societal goals, such as flood safety and recreation development, with nature development goals by actively using natural dynamics and materials in the project’s design. Because BwN projects affect multiple stakeholders and several societal functions, participatory project development is of key importance to successfully implement these projects. In such a multiactor decision-making process, a diversity of actors are involved, all of whom have their own view of the project based on their interests, values, beliefs, backgrounds, and past experiences. As a consequence, BwN projects are susceptible to being hampered by the presence of ambiguity, a kind of uncertainty that results from the simultaneous presence of multiple frames. For two BwN case study projects, we identified where the ambiguities potentially affecting project development resided, derived the different actor frames, and addressed the attributes underlying these frames. Our main finding was that ambiguity in BwN projects seems to originate from a contradiction between the beliefs held by different actors. Furthermore, our results suggest that in the current practice of BwN projects the scientific knowledge of experts is perceived as more legitimate than the local knowledge and experiences of lay actors, which implies that experts have a more powerful position in multiactor decision making. Thus, our research underlines the difficulty of bringing local knowledge and past experiences of lay actors into collective decision makin

Storylines for practice: a visual storytelling approach to strengthen the science‑practice interface

A growing number of scientifc publications is available to promote sustainable river management. However, these publications target researchers rather than water management professionals who are responsible for the implementation of management practices. To bridge this science-to-practice gap, we conceptualize and propose a series of steps to prepare efective storylines targeted at a practitioner audience. We developed this approach within a research program that supports integrated and collaborative river management. We prepared three storylines, each based on one scientifc publication. The storylines combined text and interactive visuals using the ESRI StoryMaps tool to make them available online. Via focus groups with 44 participants from research and practice, we evaluated the perceived usefulness of and engagement with the content and design. We collected feedback from participants using a survey as well as via audio and screen recordings. Our fndings show that we should narrow down the audience of the storylines by tailoring them to the needs of project managers rather than specialized advisors. Therefore, the content should ofer more than a visual summary of the research by showing examples of the management application. A more engaging sequence with a clear protagonist is further required to better relate to the problem and the potential application. Although visuals and interactive elements were considered attractive, a multi-disciplinary editorial team is necessary to better complement the visuals’ design to the text. The level of detail of participants’ feedback shows that involving project managers to co-create storylines can be an important step for improvement.Peer reviewe

Assessing framing of uncertainties in water management practice

Dealing with uncertainties in water management is an important issue and is one which will only increase in light of global changes, particularly climate change. So far, uncertainties in water management have mostly been assessed from a scientific point of view, and in quantitative terms. In this paper, we focus on the perspectives from water management practice, adopting a qualitative approach. We consider it important to know how uncertainties are framed in water management practice in order to develop practice relevant strategies for dealing with uncertainties. Framing refers to how people make sense of the world. With the aim of identifying what are important parameters for the framing of uncertainties in water management practice, in this paper we analyze uncertainty situations described by decision-makers in water management. The analysis builds on a series of ¿Uncertainty Dialogues¿ carried out within the NeWater project with water managers in the Rhine, Elbe and Guadiana basins in 2006. During these dialogues, representatives of these river basins were asked what uncertainties they encountered in their professional work life and how they confronted them. Analysing these dialogues we identified several important parameters of how uncertainties get framed. Our assumption is that making framing of uncertainty explicit for water managers will allow for better dealing with the respective uncertainty situations. Keywords Framing - Uncertainty - Water management practic

Time scale and intensity dependency in multiplicative cascades for temporal rainfall disaggregation

Multiplicative random cascades (MRCs) can parsimoniously generate highly intermittent patterns similar to those in rainfall. The elemental MRC model parameter is the cascade weight, which determines how rainfall at one scale is partitioned at the next smallest scale in the cascade. While it is known that the probability density of these weights may vary with both time scale and rainfall intensity, nearly all previous studies have considered either time scale or intensity separately. We examined the simultaneous dependency of the weights on both factors and assessed the impacts of explicitly including these dependencies in the MRC model. On the basis of the observed relationships between cascade weights and time scale and intensity, four progressively more “dependent” models were constructed to disaggregate a long time series of daily rainfall to hourly intervals. We found that inclusion of the intensity dependency on the model parameters that generate dry intervals greatly improved performance. For the relatively small range of time scales over which the rainfall was disaggregated, varying model parameters with time scale resulted in minor improvement.Keywords: dependent, multiplicative random cascade, intensity, time scale, rainfall, disaggregatio

The Space in Between:Where Multiple Ways of Knowing in Water Management Meet

Aligning what we know with what we do is one of the major challenges of contemporary water governance. Solving current water problems transcends the decision-making power and resources of any single actor and requires coordinated actions among a diversity of actors from different organizational levels and sectors. In these decision contexts of water issues and the networks of actors concerned with them, there are many ways of knowing (WoKs). In her scholarly work, Helen Ingram has often stated that effective problem solving in a democracy requires the integration of different ways of knowing. This implies enlarging and connecting existing WoKs in such a way that they reflect common collective goals and mutually acceptable solutions. But, she also recognizes that doing so is challenging, since problem definitions and solutions are often ambiguous and enmeshed in different networks of actors and institutional arrangements, where power differentials, conflicting interests, and different access to resources exist. She notes that all too often, this diversity in ways of knowing is arbitrated by appealing to a single perspective (where a technical one is preferred), resulting in solutions to water problems that do not fit the contexts in which they are implemented. Here, I have examined what it means to embrace ambiguity from the perspective of WoKs theory, paying particular attention to the relational aspects underlying the generation of knowledge for action, and proposed knowledge co-production processes that support collaboration and connection among multiple WoKs. I illustrate these ideas with examples of groundwater management from two case studies in Spain and Italy, in which I have been involved

Rethinking the Role of Humans in Water Management: Toward a New Model of Decision-Making

During the first decade of the twenty-first century, water availability and distribution have become increasingly important for sustainable development and biodiversity conservation. Issues of water scarcity, quality, and accessibility affect the livelihood of many communities across the globe, as well the sustainability of water systems and associated biodiversity. Although not the only cause, human activities are a major factor in triggering problems of water scarcity and quality. Acknowledging the intrinsic relationship between water and human culture and behaviour has led to a re-evaluation of water resource management (Whiteley et al. 2008; Blatter and Ingram 2001) and the development of new approaches, such as integrated water resource management (IWRM) and adaptive management (Gunderson et al. 1995; Lee 1999; Pahl-Wostl2007a; Walters 1986). These new models try to integrate social and environmental interests and to facilitate participatory and inclusive practices (Feldman 2007), recognizing that water issues involve multiple equally valid ways of understanding. The underlying rationale is to provide effective solutions through collective actions, accommodating diverse perspectives on water management (Ingram and Lejano 2010; Lejano and Ingram 2009)