Multicriteria-based methodology for the design of rural electrification systems. A case study in Nigeria

Electrification with micro-grids is receiving increasing attention to electrify rural areas in developing countries. However, determining the best local supply solution is a complex problem that requires considering different generation technologies (i.e. solar PV, wind or diesel) and different system configurations (off-grid or on-grid). Most existing decision aid tools to assess this design only consider economical and technical issues in a single optimization process. However, social and environmental considerations have been proven key issues to ensure long-term sustainability of the projects. In this context, the objective of this work is to develop a multicriteria procedure to allow comparing electrification designs with on-grid or isolated micro-grids and different tech-nologies considering multiple aspects. This multicriteria procedure is integrated in a two-phased methodology to assist the design of the system to electrification promoters in a structured process. First, different electrification alternatives are generated with an open-source techno-economic optimization model; next, these alternatives are evaluated and ranked with the multicriteria procedure, which considers 12 criteria representing economic, technical, socio-institutional and environmental aspects. The whole design methodology is validated with a real case study of 26 population settlements in Plateau State, Nigeria. Experts in rural electrification within the Nigerian context have been consulted to weight the criteria and particularize their evaluation for the specific case study. Results show that solar PV technology based systems are the most suitable electrification designs for communities in Nigeria, while grid connection feasibility depends on the size of the community and the distance to the closest national grid consumption point.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Perspective Chapter: A Novel Method for Integrated Multicriteria Decision-Making with Uncertainty: A Case Study on Sustainable Agriculture in Colombia

Multicriteria decision-making usually requires a set of experts to evaluate the importance of selected criteria and the adequacy of feasible alternatives according to the criteria. Uncertainty can arise in these evaluations, since experts can be hesitant about their responses due to the difficulty of quantifying human language or lack of required knowledge. The Methodology for Integrated Multicriteria Decision-making with Uncertainty (MIMDU) tackles both factors of uncertainty by using non-predefined fuzzy numbers that are continuously adapted taking into account the level of confidence of the experts’ opinions. The methodology also offers useful and complementary information to lead to a robust decision-making. This chapter proposes a novel methodology and provides a sample use case to demonstrate its capability to model uncertainty during decision-making process. In particular, a sensitivity analysis is included, which demonstrates (i) how uncertainty is incorporated into alternatives evaluation, and (ii) that the integrated multicriteria decision-making with uncertainty can be more reliable for decision-makers. The methodology is applied to the robust selection of the most sustainable technology to improve agriculture efficiency in rural areas by means of a case study of a low-cost biogas digester in a small-scale farm in Colombia

Procedure for an effective quick and targeted distribution of product to final beneficiaries by a social food bank

Humanitarian food banks throughout Europe periodically deliver baskets of food products to vulnerable families. These entities occasionally receive large, unexpected quantities of perishable products, sometimes very specific (e.g., gluten-free, vegan), to be distributed urgently. The highly random nature of these arrivals has hindered their study in literature. The purpose of this work is to define a procedure for an effective, quick and targeted distribution to beneficiaries, of large quantities of sometimes very specific perishable products. The research methodology starts with an in-depth on-site analysis of a real food bank, interviews with managers and beneficiaries, and definition of the procedure requirements. Next, the procedure is designed, defining how to select the appropriate beneficiaries for the targeted distribution, using free and common-use tools to announce the product distribution and allow the collection request by interested beneficiaries. It is technically easy to use, taking into account that food banks’ workforce is composed mainly of volunteers, with a high turnover. Training material is prepared for volunteers and beneficiaries to overcome the digital gap. The procedure is validated with the network of small food banks El Rebost, from Terrassa (Spain): 129 lots of food products have been successfully delivered to targeted beneficiaries.Peer ReviewedObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::2 - Fam zero::2.2 - Per a 2030, posar fi a totes les formes de malnutrició, incloent-hi aconseguir, a tot tardar el 2025, les fites convingudes internacionalment sobre el retard del creixement i l’emaciació dels menors de 5 anys, i abordar les necessitats de nutrició de les adolescents, dones embarassades i lactants, així com de les persones gransObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::2 - Fam zeroObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::2 - Fam zero::2.1 - Per a 2030, posar fi a la fam i assegurar l’accés de totes les persones, en particular de les persones pobres i en situacions vulnerables, inclosos els lactants, a una alimentació sana, nutritiva i suficient durant tot l’anyPostprint (published version

Epidemiology of infections by HIV, Syphilis, Gonorrhea and Lymphogranuloma Venereum in Barcelona City: a population-based incidence study

Background The aim of this study was to determine the evolution of HIV infection, gonorrhea, syphilis and lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV), and their epidemiological characteristics in Barcelona city. Methods Population-based incidence study of all newly occurring diagnoses of HIV infection, syphilis, gonorrhea and LGV detected in Barcelona between January 2007 and December 2011. A descriptive analysis was performed. The annual incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated by sex, sexual conduct and educational level. To estimate global sex-specific rates we used the Barcelona city census; for the calculation of rates by sexual conduct and educational level we used estimates of the Barcelona Health Interview Survey. Trends were analysed using the chi-squared test for linear trend. Results HIV. 66.8 % of the HIV cases were men who had sex with men (MSM). The incidence rates in MSM over the study period were from 692.67/100,000 to 909.88/100,000 inh. Syphilis. 74.2 % of the syphilis cases were MSM. The incidence rates in MSM were from 224.9/100,000 to 891.97/100,000 inh. and the MSM with a university education ranged from 196.3/100,000 to 1020.8/100,000. Gonorrhea. 45.5 % of the gonorrhea cases were MSM. The incidence rates in MSM were from 164.24/100,000 to 404.79/100,000 inh. and the MSM with university education ranged from 176.7/100,000 to 530.1/100,000 inh.. Lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV). 95.3 % of the LGV cases are MSM. The incidence rates in MSM were from 24.99/100,000 to 282.99/100,000 inh. and the MSM with university education ranged from 9.3/100,000 to 265/100,000 inh. Conclusion An increase in cases of STI was observed. These STI mainly affected MSM with a university education. Continuing to monitor changes in the epidemiology of STI, and identifying the most affected groups should permit redesigning preventive programs, with the goal of finding the most efficient way to reach these population groups

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Multi-stage optimization of rural electrification planning at regional level considering multiple criteria. Case study in Nigeria

Rural electrification should plan the multi-stage implementation of electrification systems considering different distribution options (national grid extension and decentralized off-grid systems) with different energy sources (photovoltaic, wind, diesel, etc.). Most of the existing planning assessment tools search for a static final design and only consider economical and technical criteria, although social and environmental issues have proven essential in ensuring long-term sustainability. In this context, the objective of this paper is to investigate and define how different actions of electricity extension in a region can be gradually organized to maximize the region’s overall satisfaction, and which technology options for electricity generation and distribution should be promoted on a regional scale according to economic, technical, socio-institutional and environmental criteria. The obtained solution defines, at each planning stage, to which communities should electricity access be extended and which configuration and sources are used in each community in order to maximize the total satisfaction of the region. This total satisfaction is calculated by means of multicriteria indices that evaluate the energy provided and the suitability of the chosen system designs according to stakeholders’ opinions (experts, promoters, users, among others). A mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is developed to solve the regional multi-stage planning. The model is validated with a computational experiment of 540 randomly generated instances; the results highlight its efficiency. Finally, it is applied to solve a case study of 544 real non-electrified communities in Plateau State (Nigeria) calculating two electrification plans (with a more and less budget-constrained scenario) which are compared with the currently available one. The results show that the proposed new plans significantly increase the total satisfaction obtained in the electrification of the region. The consideration of a less-constrained budget scenario allows the promotion of on-grid MGs based on only photovoltaic without diesel, which is the most satisfying option for the case study from a multicriteria perspective.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

A novel method for integrated multicriteria decision-making with uncertainty: A case study on sustainable agriculture in Colombia

Multicriteria decision-making usually requires a set of experts to evaluate the importance of selected criteria and the adequacy of feasible alternatives according to the criteria. Uncertainty can arise in these evaluations, since experts can be hesitant about their responses due to the difficulty of quantifying human language or lack of required knowledge. The Methodology for Integrated Multicriteria Decision-making with Uncertainty (MIMDU) tackles both factors of uncertainty by using non-predefined fuzzy numbers that are continuously adapted taking into account the level of confidence of the experts’ opinions. The methodology also offers useful and complementary information to lead to a robust decision-making. This chapter proposes a novel methodology and provides a sample use case to demonstrate its capability to model uncertainty during decision-making process. In particular, a sensitivity analysis is included, which demonstrates (i) how uncertainty is incorporated into alternatives evaluation, and (ii) that the integrated multicriteria decision-making with uncertainty can be more reliable for decision-makers. The methodology is applied to the robust selection of the most sustainable technology to improve agriculture efficiency in rural areas by means of a case study of a low-cost biogas digester in a small-scale farm in Colombia.Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::7 - Energia Assequible i No ContaminantPostprint (published version