OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICY IN A BUSINESS CYCLE MODEL: ALTERNATIVE IDENTIFICATIONS OF THE OPTIMAL EXPOST CAPITAL INCOME TAX RATES

This paper deals with the indeterminacy of optimal fiscal policy treated by Zhu (1992) and Chari, Christiano and Kehoe (1994). These authors identify the optimal fiscal policy restricting the debt return to be uncontingent to the state of nature. In this paper we use other kind of restrictions in order to identify the optimal fiscal policy. Using the solution method proposed by Sims (1998), we can select an equilibrium by enforcing a stable path for the bonds allocation, to identify all the fiscal policy variables contingent to the state of nature. We also use a decomposition of the expectational terms that allow us to obtain the ex-ante capital income tax rate in order to be compared with the ex-post (contingent) tax rate. We can demonstrate that the risk aversion changes the relationship between the expectational errors of the private agents and the sources of fluctuations. The numerical simulation provides some different results: the optimal tax rate on capital incom e is constant, instead of the very volatile tax rate obtained by Chari, Christiano and Kehoe (1994). This property remains unaltered when we use alternative restrictions (exogenous debt path and exogenous expectational errors) to identify the contingent optimal fiscal policy.

Optimal Oil Taxation in a Small Open Economy

The international oil market has been very volatile over the past three decades. In industrialized economies, especially in Europe, taxes represent a large fraction of oil prices and governments do not seem to react to oil price shocks by using oil taxes strategically. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimal oil taxation in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that imports oil. We obtain that in general it is not optimal to distort the oil price paid by firms with taxes. Extending the model in several ways this result could be reversed depending on environmental considerations and available fiscal instruments.Optimal oil taxation, general equilibrium, small open economies

Some economic aspects of energy security

Energy security is becoming an increasingly important issue in the energy domain. However, from an economic point of view, many questions related to energy security are still unclear: from its definition and the costs associated to insecurity, to the design of policies intended to reduce it. In this paper we first illustrate why the security of energy supply is and will continue to be a major concern in the next few decades. We subsequently attempt, with a review of the limited literature on these matters, to provide an answer to some of the economic concepts associated to this issue and to the application of corrective public policies in the field.peer-reviewe

Análisis dinámico del coste de bienestar del sistema impositivo español. Una exploración cuantitativa

En este trabajo utilizamos un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico para cuantificar el coste de bienestar del sistema impositivo español. Calibraremos el modelo neoclásico de crecimiento para replicar algunas características relevantes de la economía española, poniendo especial interés en las relativas a los tipos efectivos de gravamen del sistema impositivo. Con esta economía calibrada, aproximaremos numéricamente cuál es el exceso de gravamen del actual sistema impositivo español. Además, se evalúan las ganancias de bienestar de diferentes reformas de este sistema impositivo, tanto aquellas neutrales en recaudación como aquellas de presupuesto equilibrado.Política fiscal, equilibrio general dinámico, dinámica comparativa.

Oil subsidies and renewable energy in Saudi Arabia:a general equilibrium approach

In 2016, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced its Vision 2030 strategic plan incorporating major changes to the economic structure of the country, including an intention to deploy 9.5 GW of renewable energy in an effort to reduce the penetration of oil in the electricity generation system. This paper assesses the macroeconomic impact of such changes in the KSA, coupled with reductions in implicit energy subsidies. Based on a dynamic general equilibrium model, our analysis suggests that if the KSA government were to deploy a relatively small quantity of renewable technology, consistent with the country’s Vision 2030 plans, there would be a positive impact on the KSA’s long run GDP and on households’ welfare. However, we demonstrate that if the integration costs of renewable technology were high, then households’ welfare would be maximized at around 30–40 percent renewables penetration. In addition, we show that a policy favoring renewable energy would increase the dependence of the KSA on oil, given that a larger share of GDP would be linked to oil exports and so, potentially, to oil price shocks. Finally, it is shown that exporting significantly more oil onto the international market could have a negative impact on the international oil price and thus could offset the potential gains from the renewable energy policy

Rentabilidad social de la inversión pública española en infraestructuras

En este trabajo se cuantifican los efectos de la inversión pública española en infraestructuras sobre el bienestar social. Para ello se calibra con datos de la economía española un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico de agente representativo, donde la inversión pública se financia con impuestos distorsionantes. El stock de infraestructuras públicas tendrá un efecto positivo sobre la productividad agregada de los factores aunque, como aportación teórica novedosa, asumiremos que este efecto vendrá determinado por la dotación efectiva de infraestructuras. Consideraremos rendimientos decrecientes a escala a nivel privado derivados de la existencia de costes de transporte, los cuales dependen negativamente de la dotación de infraestructuras por unidad de output. La actividad inversora del sector público tendrá, por lo tanto, dos efectos contrapuestos sobre el bienestar. Por un lado, un incremento del stock de infraestructuras provoca un aumento de la producción efectiva agregada, mientras que por otra parte, hace que crezca la recaudación impositiva distorsionante, afectando a la renta disponible y a la decisión de los individuos sobre consumo, ahorro y oferta de trabajo. De esta forma, el efecto final sobre el bienestar de un incremento en la inversión pública dependerá de la política fiscal inicial y de la estrategia de financiación de ese incremento.Política fiscal, equilibrio general dinámico, dinámica comparativa, bienestar.

Rentabilidad social de la inversión pública española en infraestructuras

En este trabajo se cuantifican los efectos de la inversión pública española en infraestructuras sobre el bienestar social. Para ello se calibra con datos de la economía española un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico de agente representativo, donde la inversión pública se financia con impuestos distorsionantes. El stock de infraestructuras públicas tendrá un efecto positivo sobre la productividad agregada de los factores aunque, como aportación teórica novedosa, asumiremos que este efecto vendrá determinado por la dotación efectiva de infraestructuras. En concreto, consideraremos rendimientos decrecientes a escala a nivel privado derivados de la existencia de costes de transporte, los cuales dependen negativamente de la dotación de infraestructuras por unidad de output