Near-stasis in the long-term diversification of Mesozoic tetrapods

How did evolution generate the extraordinary diversity of vertebrates on land? Zero species are known prior to ~380 million years ago, and more than 30,000 are present today. An expansionist model suggests this was achieved by large and unbounded increases, leading to substantially greater diversity in the present than at any time in the geological past. This model contrasts starkly with empirical support for constrained diversification in marine animals, suggesting different macroevolutionary processes on land and in the sea. We quantify patterns of vertebrate standing diversity on land during the Mesozoic–early Paleogene interval, applying sample-standardization to a global fossil dataset containing 27,260 occurrences of 4,898 non-marine tetrapod species. Our results show a highly stable pattern of Mesozoic tetrapod diversity at regional and local levels, underpinned by a weakly positive, but near-zero, long-term net diversification rate over 190 million years. Species diversity of non-flying terrestrial tetrapods less than doubled over this interval, despite the origins of exceptionally diverse extant groups within mammals, squamates, amphibians, and dinosaurs. Therefore, although speciose groups of modern tetrapods have Mesozoic origins, rates of Mesozoic diversification inferred from the fossil record are slow compared to those inferred from molecular phylogenies. If high speciation rates did occur in the Mesozoic, then they seem to have been balanced by extinctions among older clades. An apparent 4-fold expansion of species richness after the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary deserves further examination in light of potential taxonomic biases, but is consistent with the hypothesis that global environmental disturbances such as mass extinction events can rapidly adjust limits to diversity by restructuring ecosystems, and suggests that the gradualistic evolutionary diversification of tetrapods was punctuated by brief but dramatic episodes of radiation.27 page(s

Climate constrains the evolutionary history and biodiversity of crocodylians

The fossil record of crocodylians and their relatives (pseudosuchians) reveals a rich evolutionary history, prompting questions about causes of long-term decline to their present-day low biodiversity. We analyse climatic drivers of subsampled pseudosuchian biodiversity over their 250 million year history, using a comprehensive new data set. Biodiversity and environmental changes correlate strongly, with long-term decline of terrestrial taxa driven by decreasing temperatures in northern temperate regions, and biodiversity decreases at lower latitudes matching patterns of increasing aridification. However, there is no relationship between temperature and biodiversity for marine pseudosuchians, with sea-level change and post-extinction opportunism demonstrated to be more important drivers. A ‘modern-type' latitudinal biodiversity gradient might have existed throughout pseudosuchian history, and range expansion towards the poles occurred during warm intervals. Although their fossil record suggests that current global warming might promote long-term increases in crocodylian biodiversity and geographic range, the 'balancing forces' of anthropogenic environmental degradation complicate future predictions

Intergenerational Education: The significance of 'reciprocity' and 'place'

In this article, the case is made for greater clarity in the definition of intergenerational practice and intergenerational education. Theoretically, the effects of all-age reciprocity and the significance of attending to 'place' are explored. Taken together, they help point to what is distinctive about the scope and purpose of intergenerational education. The author argues that any intergenerational practice must always involve an educative element that is focused, at least in part, on the on-going reciprocal production of new relations between generations through the way challenges are purposefully responded to in some specific place

Anatomy and systematics of the diplodocoid Amphicoelias altus supports high sauropod dinosaur diversity in the Upper Jurassic Morrison Formation of the USA

Sauropod dinosaurs were an abundant and diverse component of the Upper Jurassic Morrison Formation of the USA, with 24 currently recognized species. However, some authors consider this high diversity to have been ecologically unviable and the validity of some species has been questioned, with suggestions that they represent growth series (ontogimorphs) of other species. Under this scenario, high sauropod diversity in the Late Jurassic of North America is greatly overestimated. One putative ontogimorph is the enigmatic diplodocoid Amphicoelias altus, which has been suggested to be synonymous with Diplodocus. Given that Amphicoelias was named first, it has priority and thus Diplodocus would become its junior synonym. Here, we provide a detailed re-description of A. altus in which we restrict it to the holotype individual and support its validity, based on three autapomorphies. Constraint analyses demonstrate that its phylogenetic position within Diplodocoidea is labile, but it seems unlikely that Amphicoelias is synonymous with Diplodocus. As such, our re-evaluation also leads us to retain Diplodocus as a distinct genus. There is no evidence to support the view that any of the currently recognized Morrison sauropod species are ontogimorphs. Available data indicate that sauropod anatomy did not dramatically alter once individuals approached maturity. Furthermore, subadult sauropod individuals are not prone to stemward slippage in phylogenetic analyses, casting doubt on the possibility that their taxonomic affinities are substantially misinterpreted. An anatomical feature can have both an ontogenetic and phylogenetic signature, but the former does not outweigh the latter when other characters overwhelmingly support the affinities of a taxon. Many Morrison Formation sauropods were spatio-temporally and/or ecologically separated from one another. Combined with the biases that cloud our reading of the fossil record, we contend that the number of sauropod dinosaur species in the Morrison Formation is currently likely to be underestimated, not overestimated

Stakeholder views on publication bias in health services research

Objectives: While the presence of publication bias in clinical research is well documented, little is known about its role in the reporting of health services research. This paper explores stakeholder perceptions and experiences with regard to the role of publication and related biases in quantitative research relating to the quality, accessibility and organization of health services. Methods: We present findings from semi-structured interviews with those responsible for the funding, publishing and/or conduct of quantitative health services research, primarily in the UK. Additional data collection includes interviews with health care decision makers as ‘end users’ of health services research, and a focus group with patient and service user representatives. The final sample comprised 24 interviews and eight focus group participants. Results: Many study participants felt unable to say with any degree of certainty whether publication bias represents a significant problem in quantitative health services research. Participants drew broad contrasts between externally funded and peer reviewed research on the one hand, and end user funded quality improvement projects on the other, with the latter perceived as more vulnerable to selective publication and author over-claiming. Multiple study objectives, and a general acceptance of ‘mess and noise’ in the data and its interpretation was seen to reduce the importance attached to replicable estimates of effect sizes in health services research. The relative absence of external scrutiny, either from manufacturers of interventions or health system decision makers, added to this general sense of ‘low stakes’ of health services research. As a result, while many participants advocated study pre-registration and using protocols to pre-identify outcomes, others saw this as an unwarranted imposition. Conclusions: This study finds that incentives towards publication and related bias are likely to be present, but not to the same degree as in clinical research. In health services research, these were seen as being offset by other forms of ‘novelty’ bias in the reporting and publishing of research findings

Assessment of publication bias and outcome reporting bias in systematic reviews of health services and delivery research:A meta-epidemiological study

Strategies to identify and mitigate publication bias and outcome reporting bias are frequently adopted in systematic reviews of clinical interventions but it is not clear how often these are applied in systematic reviews relating to quantitative health services and delivery research (HSDR). We examined whether these biases are mentioned and/or otherwise assessed in HSDR systematic reviews, and evaluated associating factors to inform future practice. We randomly selected 200 quantitative HSDR systematic reviews published in the English language from 2007-2017 from the Health Systems Evidence database (www.healthsystemsevidence.org). We extracted data on factors that may influence whether or not authors mention and/or assess publication bias or outcome reporting bias. We found that 43% (n = 85) of the reviews mentioned publication bias and 10% (n = 19) formally assessed it. Outcome reporting bias was mentioned and assessed in 17% (n = 34) of all the systematic reviews. Insufficient number of studies, heterogeneity and lack of pre-registered protocols were the most commonly reported impediments to assessing the biases. In multivariable logistic regression models, both mentioning and formal assessment of publication bias were associated with: inclusion of a meta-analysis; being a review of intervention rather than association studies; higher journal impact factor, and; reporting the use of systematic review guidelines. Assessment of outcome reporting bias was associated with: being an intervention review; authors reporting the use of Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE), and; inclusion of only controlled trials. Publication bias and outcome reporting bias are infrequently assessed in HSDR systematic reviews. This may reflect the inherent heterogeneity of HSDR evidence and different methodological approaches to synthesising the evidence, lack of awareness of such biases, limits of current tools and lack of pre-registered study protocols for assessing such biases. Strategies to help raise awareness of the biases, and methods to minimise their occurrence and mitigate their impacts on HSDR systematic reviews, are needed

Consequences of polar form coherence for fMRI responses in human visual cortex

AbstractRelevant features in the visual image are often spatially extensive and have complex orientation structure. Our perceptual sensitivity to such spatial form is demonstrated by polar Glass patterns, in which an array of randomly-positioned dot pairs that are each aligned with a particular polar displacement (rotation, for example) yield a salient impression of spatial structure. Such patterns are typically considered to be processed in two main stages: local spatial filtering in low-level visual cortex followed by spatial pooling and complex form selectivity in mid-level visual cortex. However, it remains unclear both whether reciprocal interactions within the cortical hierarchy are involved in polar Glass pattern processing and which mid-level areas identify and communicate polar Glass pattern structure. Here, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) at 7T to infer the magnitude of neural response within human low-level and mid-level visual cortex to polar Glass patterns of varying coherence (proportion of signal elements). The activity within low-level visual areas V1 and V2 was not significantly modulated by polar Glass pattern coherence, while the low-level area V3, dorsal and ventral mid-level areas, and the human MT complex each showed a positive linear coherence response functions. The cortical processing of polar Glass patterns thus appears to involve primarily feedforward communication of local signals from V1 and V2, with initial polar form selectivity reached in V3 and distributed to multiple pathways in mid-level visual cortex

Development of a German version of the Oswestry Disability Index. Part 1: cross-cultural adaptation, reliability, and validity

Patient-orientated assessment methods are of paramount importance in the evaluation of treatment outcome. The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is one of the condition-specific questionnaires recommended for use with back pain patients. To date, no German version has been published in the peer-reviewed literature. A cross-cultural adaptation of the ODI for the German language was carried out, according to established guidelines. One hundred patients with chronic low-back pain (35 conservative, 65 surgical) completed a questionnaire booklet containing the newly translated ODI, along with a 0-10 pain visual analogue scale (VAS), the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire, and Likert scales for disability, medication intake and pain frequency [to assess ODI's construct (convergent) validity]. Thirty-nine of these patients completed a second questionnaire within 2weeks (to assess test-retest reliability). The intraclass correlation coefficient for the test-retest reliability of the questionnaire was 0.96. In test-retest, 74% of the individual questions were answered identically, and 21% just one grade higher or lower. The standard error of measurement (SEM) was 3.4, giving a "minimum detectable change” (MDC95%) for the ODI of approximately 9 points, i.e. the minimum change in an individual's score required to be considered "real change” (with 95% confidence) over and above measurement error. The ODI scores correlated with VAS pain intensity (r=0.78, P<0.001) and Roland Morris scores (r=0.80, P<0.001). The mean baseline ODI scores differed significantly between the surgical and conservative patients (P<0.001), and between the different categories of the Likert scales for disability, medication use and pain frequency (in each case P<0.001). Our German version of the Oswestry questionnaire is reliable and valid, and shows psychometric characteristics as good as, if not better than, the original English version. It should represent a valuable tool for use in future patient-orientated outcome studies in German-speaking land

Development of a German version of the Oswestry Disability Index. Part 2: sensitivity to change after spinal surgery

When functional scales are to be used as treatment outcome measures, it is essential to know how responsive they are to clinical change. This information is essential not only for clinical decision-making, but also for the determination of sample size in clinical trials. The present study examined the responsiveness of a German version of the Oswestry Disability Index version 2.1 (ODI) after surgical treatment for low back pain. Before spine surgery 63 patients completed a questionnaire booklet containing the ODI, along with a 0-10 pain visual analogue scale (VAS), the Roland Morris disability questionnaire, and Likert scales for disability, medication intake and pain frequency. Six months after surgery, 57 (90%) patients completed the same questionnaire booklet and also answered Likert-scale questions on the global result of surgery, and on improvements in pain and disability. Both the effect size for the ODI change score 6months after surgery (0.87) and the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve for the relative improvement in ODI score in relation to global outcome 6months after surgery (0.90) indicated that the ODI showed good responsiveness. The ROC method revealed that a minimum reduction of the baseline (pre-surgery) ODI score by 18% (equal to a mean 8-point reduction in this patient group) represented the cut-off for indicating a "good” individual outcome 6months after surgery (sensitivity 91.4% and specificity 82.4%). The German version of the ODI is a sensitive instrument for detecting clinical change after spinal surgery. Individual improvements after surgery of at least an 18% reduction on baseline values are associated with a good outcome. This figure can be used as a reliable guide for the determination of sample size in future clinical trials of spinal surger