219 research outputs found

    Description and evaluation of GLOMAP-mode: a modal global aerosol microphysics model for the UKCA composition-climate model

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    A new version of the Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) is described, which uses a two-moment pseudo-modal aerosol dynamics approach rather than the original two-moment bin scheme. GLOMAP-mode simulates the multi-component global aerosol, resolving sulfate, sea-salt, dust, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM), the latter including primary and biogenic secondary POM. Aerosol processes are simulated in a size-resolved manner including primary emissions, secondary particle formation by binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water, particle growth by coagulation, condensation and cloud-processing and removal by dry deposition, in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging. A series of benchmark observational datasets are assembled against which the skill of the model is assessed in terms of normalised mean bias (<i>b</i>) and correlation coefficient (<i>R</i>). Overall, the model performs well against the datasets in simulating concentrations of aerosol precursor gases, chemically speciated particle mass, condensation nuclei (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Surface sulfate, sea-salt and dust mass concentrations are all captured well, while BC and POM are biased low (but correlate well). Surface CN concentrations compare reasonably well in free troposphere and marine sites, but are underestimated at continental and coastal sites related to underestimation of either primary particle emissions or new particle formation. The model compares well against a compilation of CCN observations covering a range of environments and against vertical profiles of size-resolved particle concentrations over Europe. The simulated global burden, lifetime and wet removal of each of the simulated aerosol components is also examined and each lies close to multi-model medians from the AEROCOM model intercomparison exercise

    Explaining Evidence Denial as Motivated Pragmatically Rational Epistemic Irrationality

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    This paper introduces a model for evidence denial that explains this behavior as a manifestation of rationality and it is based on the contention that social values (measurable as utilities) often underwrite these sorts of responses. Moreover, it is contended that the value associated with group membership in particular can override epistemic reason when the expected utility of a belief or belief system is great. However, it is also true that it appears to be the case that it is still possible for such unreasonable believers to reverse this sort of dogmatism and to change their beliefs in a way that is epistemically rational. The conjecture made here is that we should expect this to happen only when the expected utility of the beliefs in question dips below a threshold where the utility value of continued dogmatism and the associated group membership is no longer sufficient to motivate defusing the counter-evidence that tells against such epistemically irrational beliefs

    Risk factors for hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis in England: a population-based birth cohort study.

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    OBJECTIVE: To examine the timing and duration of RSV bronchiolitis hospital admission among term and preterm infants in England and to identify risk factors for bronchiolitis admission. DESIGN: A population-based birth cohort with follow-up to age 1 year, using the Hospital Episode Statistics database. SETTING: 71 hospitals across England. PARTICIPANTS: We identified 296618 individual birth records from 2007/08 and linked to subsequent hospital admission records during the first year of life. RESULTS: In our cohort there were 7189 hospital admissions with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, 24.2 admissions per 1000 infants under 1 year (95%CI 23.7-24.8), of which 15% (1050/7189) were born preterm (47.3 bronchiolitis admissions per 1000 preterm infants (95% CI 44.4-50.2)). The peak age group for bronchiolitis admissions was infants aged 1 month and the median was age 120 days (IQR = 61-209 days). The median length of stay was 1 day (IQR = 0-3). The relative risk (RR) of a bronchiolitis admission was higher among infants with known risk factors for severe RSV infection, including those born preterm (RR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.8-2.0) compared with infants born at term. Other conditions also significantly increased risk of bronchiolitis admission, including Down's syndrome (RR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-3.7) and cerebral palsy (RR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-4.0). CONCLUSIONS: Most (85%) of the infants who are admitted to hospital with bronchiolitis in England are born at term, with no known predisposing risk factors for severe RSV infection, although risk of admission is higher in known risk groups. The early age of bronchiolitis admissions has important implications for the potential impact and timing of future active and passive immunisations. More research is needed to explain why babies born with Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy are also at higher risk of hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis

    Probabilities, causation, and logic programming in conditional reasoning: reply to Stenning and Van Lambalgen (2016)

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    Oaksford and Chater (2014, Thinking and Reasoning, 20, 269–295) critiqued the logic programming (LP) approach to nonmonotonicity and proposed that a Bayesian probabilistic approach to conditional reasoning provided a more empirically adequate theory. The current paper is a reply to Stenning and van Lambalgen's rejoinder to this earlier paper entitled ‘Logic programming, probability, and two-system accounts of reasoning: a rejoinder to Oaksford and Chater’ (2016) in Thinking and Reasoning. It is argued that causation is basic in human cognition and that explaining how abnormality lists are created in LP requires causal models. Each specific rejoinder to the original critique is then addressed. While many areas of agreement are identified, with respect to the key differences, it is concluded the current evidence favours the Bayesian approach, at least for the moment

    The origins of belonging : Social motivation in infants and young children

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    Our reliance on our group members has exerted a profound influence over our motivation: successful group functioning requires that we are motivated to interact, and engage, with those around us. In other words, we need to belong. In this article, I explore the developmental origins of our need to belong. I discuss existing evidence that, from early in development, children seek to affiliate with others and to form long-lasting bonds with their group members. Furthermore, when children are deprived of a sense of belonging, it has negative consequences for their well-being. This focus on social motivation enables us to examine why and in what circumstances children engage in particular behaviours. It thus provides an important complement to research on social cognition. In doing so, it opens up important questions for future research and provides a much-needed bridge between developmental and social psychology

    Femoral fracture following knee ligament reconstruction surgery due to an unpredictable complication of bioabsorbable screw fixation: a case report and review of literature

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    We report an unusual case of femoral fracture from minimal trauma, due to the rapid disappearance of a bioabsorbable interference screw used for reconstruction of the posterolateral corner of the knee. The literature on bone tunnel fractures following knee ligament reconstruction surgery is also reviewed

    Intercomparison of modal and sectional aerosol microphysics representations within the same 3-D global chemical transport model

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    In the most advanced aerosol-climate models it is common to represent the aerosol particle size distribution in terms of several log-normal modes. This approach, motivated by computational efficiency, makes assumptions about the shape of the particle distribution that may not always capture the properties of global aerosol. Here, a global modal aerosol microphysics module (GLOMAP-mode) is evaluated and improved by comparing against a sectional version (GLOMAP-bin) and observations in the same 3-D global offline chemistry transport model. With both schemes, the model captures the main features of the global particle size distribution, with sub-micron aerosol approximately unimodal in continental regions and bi-modal in marine regions. Initial bin-mode comparisons showed that the current values for two size distribution parameter settings in the modal scheme (mode widths and inter-modal separation sizes) resulted in clear biases compared to the sectional scheme. By adjusting these parameters in the modal scheme, much better agreement is achieved against the bin scheme and observations. Annual mean surface-level mass of sulphate, sea-salt, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) are within 25% in the two schemes in nearly all regions. Surface level concentrations of condensation nuclei (CN), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), surface area density and condensation sink also compare within 25% in most regions. However, marine CCN concentrations between 30° N and 30° S are systematically 25–60% higher in the modal model, which we attribute to differences in size-resolved particle growth or cloud-processing. Larger differences also exist in regions or seasons dominated by biomass burning and in free-troposphere and high-latitude regions. Indeed, in the free-troposphere, GLOMAP-mode BC is a factor 2–4 higher than GLOMAP-bin, likely due to differences in size-resolved scavenging. Nevertheless, in most parts of the atmosphere, we conclude that bin-mode differences are much less than model-observation differences, although some processes are missing in these runs which may pose a bigger challenge to modal schemes (e.g., boundary layer nucleation and ultra-fine sea-spray). The findings here underline the need for a spectrum of complexity in global models, with size-resolved aerosol properties predicted by modal schemes needing to be continually benchmarked and improved against freely evolving sectional schemes and observations

    Ripples in a pond: Do social work students need to learn about terrorism?

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    In the face of heightened awareness of terrorism, however it is defined, the challenges for social work are legion. Social work roles may include working with the military to ensure the well-being of service-men and women and their families when bereaved or injured, as well as being prepared to support the public within the emergency context of an overt act of terrorism. This paper reviews some of the literature concerning how social work responds to confl ict and terrorism before reporting a smallscale qualitative study examining the views of social work students, on a qualifying programme in the UK, of terrorism and the need for knowledge and understanding as part of their education
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