First comparison of a global microphysical aerosol model with size-resolved observational aerosol statistics

International audienceA statistical synthesis of marine aerosol measurements from experiments in four different oceans is used to evaluate a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP). We compare the model against observed size resolved particle concentrations, probability distributions, and the temporal persistence of different size particles. We attempt to explain the observed size distributions in terms of sulfate and sea spray and quantify the possible contributions of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous material to the number and mass distribution. The model predicts a bimodal size distribution that agrees well with observations as a grand average over all regions, but there are large regional differences. Notably, observed Aitken mode number concentrations are more than a factor 10 higher than in the model for the N Atlantic but a factor 7 lower than the model in the NW Pacific. We also find that modelled Aitken mode and accumulation mode geometric mean diameters are generally smaller in the model by 10?30%. Comparison with observed free tropospheric Aitken mode distributions suggests that the model underpredicts growth of these particles during descent to the MBL. Recent observations of a substantial organic component of free tropospheric aerosol could explain this discrepancy. We find that anthropogenic continental material makes a substantial contribution to N Atlantic marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol, with typically 60?90% of sulfate across the particle size range coming from anthropogenic sources, even if we analyse air that has spent an average of >120 h away from land. However, anthropogenic primary black carbon and organic carbon particles do not explain the large discrepancies in Aitken mode number. Several explanations for the discrepancy are suggested. The lack of lower atmospheric particle formation in the model may explain low N Atlantic particle concentrations. However, the observed and modelled particle persistence at Cape Grim in the Southern Ocean, does not reveal a diurnal cycle consistent with a photochemically driven local particle source. We also show that a physically based cloud drop activation scheme is needed to explain the observed change in accumulation mode geometric mean diameter with particle number

Evaluation of a global aerosol microphysics model against size-resolved particle statistics in the marine atmosphere

A statistical synthesis of marine aerosol measurements from experiments in four different oceans is used to evaluate a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP). We compare the model against observed size resolved particle concentrations, probability distributions, and the temporal persistence of different size particles. We attempt to explain the observed sub-micrometre size distributions in terms of sulfate and sea spray and quantify the possible contributions of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous material to the number and mass distribution. The model predicts a bimodal size distribution that agrees well with observations as a grand average over all regions, but there are large regional differences. Notably, observed Aitken mode number concentrations are more than a factor 10 higher than in the model for the N Atlantic but a factor 7 lower than the model in the NW Pacific. We also find that modelled Aitken mode and accumulation mode geometric mean diameters are generally smaller in the model by 10–30%. Comparison with observed free tropospheric Aitken mode distributions suggests that the model underpredicts growth of these particles during descent to the marine boundary layer (MBL). Recent observations of a substantial organic component of free tropospheric aerosol could explain this discrepancy. We find that anthropogenic continental material makes a substantial contribution to N Atlantic MBL aerosol, with typically 60–90% of sulfate across the particle size range coming from anthropogenic sources, even if we analyse air that has spent an average of >120 h away from land. However, anthropogenic primary black carbon and organic carbon particles (at the emission size and quantity assumed here) do not explain the large discrepancies in Aitken mode number. Several explanations for the discrepancy are suggested. The lack of lower atmospheric particle formation in the model may explain low N Atlantic particle concentrations. However, the observed and modelled particle persistence at Cape Grim in the Southern Ocean, does not reveal a diurnal cycle consistent with a photochemically driven local particle source. We also show that a physically based cloud drop activation scheme better explains the observed change in accumulation mode geometric mean diameter with particle number

Description and evaluation of GLOMAP-mode: a modal global aerosol microphysics model for the UKCA composition-climate model

A new version of the Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) is described, which uses a two-moment pseudo-modal aerosol dynamics approach rather than the original two-moment bin scheme. GLOMAP-mode simulates the multi-component global aerosol, resolving sulfate, sea-salt, dust, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM), the latter including primary and biogenic secondary POM. Aerosol processes are simulated in a size-resolved manner including primary emissions, secondary particle formation by binary homogeneous nucleation of sulfuric acid and water, particle growth by coagulation, condensation and cloud-processing and removal by dry deposition, in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging. A series of benchmark observational datasets are assembled against which the skill of the model is assessed in terms of normalised mean bias (<i>b</i>) and correlation coefficient (<i>R</i>). Overall, the model performs well against the datasets in simulating concentrations of aerosol precursor gases, chemically speciated particle mass, condensation nuclei (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Surface sulfate, sea-salt and dust mass concentrations are all captured well, while BC and POM are biased low (but correlate well). Surface CN concentrations compare reasonably well in free troposphere and marine sites, but are underestimated at continental and coastal sites related to underestimation of either primary particle emissions or new particle formation. The model compares well against a compilation of CCN observations covering a range of environments and against vertical profiles of size-resolved particle concentrations over Europe. The simulated global burden, lifetime and wet removal of each of the simulated aerosol components is also examined and each lies close to multi-model medians from the AEROCOM model intercomparison exercise

Explaining Evidence Denial as Motivated Pragmatically Rational Epistemic Irrationality

This paper introduces a model for evidence denial that explains this behavior as a manifestation of rationality and it is based on the contention that social values (measurable as utilities) often underwrite these sorts of responses. Moreover, it is contended that the value associated with group membership in particular can override epistemic reason when the expected utility of a belief or belief system is great. However, it is also true that it appears to be the case that it is still possible for such unreasonable believers to reverse this sort of dogmatism and to change their beliefs in a way that is epistemically rational. The conjecture made here is that we should expect this to happen only when the expected utility of the beliefs in question dips below a threshold where the utility value of continued dogmatism and the associated group membership is no longer sufficient to motivate defusing the counter-evidence that tells against such epistemically irrational beliefs

Risk factors for hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis in England: a population-based birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the timing and duration of RSV bronchiolitis hospital admission among term and preterm infants in England and to identify risk factors for bronchiolitis admission. DESIGN: A population-based birth cohort with follow-up to age 1 year, using the Hospital Episode Statistics database. SETTING: 71 hospitals across England. PARTICIPANTS: We identified 296618 individual birth records from 2007/08 and linked to subsequent hospital admission records during the first year of life. RESULTS: In our cohort there were 7189 hospital admissions with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, 24.2 admissions per 1000 infants under 1 year (95%CI 23.7-24.8), of which 15% (1050/7189) were born preterm (47.3 bronchiolitis admissions per 1000 preterm infants (95% CI 44.4-50.2)). The peak age group for bronchiolitis admissions was infants aged 1 month and the median was age 120 days (IQR = 61-209 days). The median length of stay was 1 day (IQR = 0-3). The relative risk (RR) of a bronchiolitis admission was higher among infants with known risk factors for severe RSV infection, including those born preterm (RR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.8-2.0) compared with infants born at term. Other conditions also significantly increased risk of bronchiolitis admission, including Down's syndrome (RR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.7-3.7) and cerebral palsy (RR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-4.0). CONCLUSIONS: Most (85%) of the infants who are admitted to hospital with bronchiolitis in England are born at term, with no known predisposing risk factors for severe RSV infection, although risk of admission is higher in known risk groups. The early age of bronchiolitis admissions has important implications for the potential impact and timing of future active and passive immunisations. More research is needed to explain why babies born with Down's syndrome and cerebral palsy are also at higher risk of hospital admission with RSV bronchiolitis

Intercomparison of modal and sectional aerosol microphysics representations within the same 3-D global chemical transport model

In the most advanced aerosol-climate models it is common to represent the aerosol particle size distribution in terms of several log-normal modes. This approach, motivated by computational efficiency, makes assumptions about the shape of the particle distribution that may not always capture the properties of global aerosol. Here, a global modal aerosol microphysics module (GLOMAP-mode) is evaluated and improved by comparing against a sectional version (GLOMAP-bin) and observations in the same 3-D global offline chemistry transport model. With both schemes, the model captures the main features of the global particle size distribution, with sub-micron aerosol approximately unimodal in continental regions and bi-modal in marine regions. Initial bin-mode comparisons showed that the current values for two size distribution parameter settings in the modal scheme (mode widths and inter-modal separation sizes) resulted in clear biases compared to the sectional scheme. By adjusting these parameters in the modal scheme, much better agreement is achieved against the bin scheme and observations. Annual mean surface-level mass of sulphate, sea-salt, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) are within 25% in the two schemes in nearly all regions. Surface level concentrations of condensation nuclei (CN), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), surface area density and condensation sink also compare within 25% in most regions. However, marine CCN concentrations between 30° N and 30° S are systematically 25–60% higher in the modal model, which we attribute to differences in size-resolved particle growth or cloud-processing. Larger differences also exist in regions or seasons dominated by biomass burning and in free-troposphere and high-latitude regions. Indeed, in the free-troposphere, GLOMAP-mode BC is a factor 2–4 higher than GLOMAP-bin, likely due to differences in size-resolved scavenging. Nevertheless, in most parts of the atmosphere, we conclude that bin-mode differences are much less than model-observation differences, although some processes are missing in these runs which may pose a bigger challenge to modal schemes (e.g., boundary layer nucleation and ultra-fine sea-spray). The findings here underline the need for a spectrum of complexity in global models, with size-resolved aerosol properties predicted by modal schemes needing to be continually benchmarked and improved against freely evolving sectional schemes and observations

Physicochemical analysis of rotavirus segment 11 supports a 'modified panhandle' structure and not the predicted alternative tRNA-like structure (TRLS)

.Rotaviruses are a major cause of acute gastroenteritis, which is often fatal in infants. The viral genome consists of 11 double-stranded RNA segments, but little is known about their cis-acting sequences and structural elements. Covariation studies and phylogenetic analysis exploring the potential structure of RNA11 of rotaviruses suggested that, besides the previously predicted "modified panhandle" structure, the 5' and 3' termini of one of the isoforms of the bovine rotavirus UKtc strain may interact to form a tRNA-like structure (TRLS). Such TRLSs have been identified in RNAs of plant viruses, where they are important for enhancing replication and packaging. However, using tRNA mimicry assays (in vitro aminoacylation and 3'- adenylation), we found no biochemical evidence for tRNA-like functions of RNA11. Capping, synthetic 3' adenylation and manipulation of divalent cation concentrations did not change this finding. NMR studies on a 5'- and 3'-deletion construct of RNA11 containing the putative intra-strand complementary sequences supported a predominant panhandle structure and did not conform to a cloverleaf fold despite the strong evidence for a predicted structure in this conserved region of the viral RNA. Additional viral or cellular factors may be needed to stabilise it into a form with tRNA-like properties

Dynamic Changes in White Matter Abnormalities Correlate With Late Improvement and Deterioration Following TBI: A Diffusion Tensor Imaging Study.

OBJECTIVE: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is not a single insult with monophasic resolution, but a chronic disease, with dynamic processes that remain active for years. We aimed to assess patient trajectories over the entire disease narrative, from ictus to late outcome. METHODS: Twelve patients with moderate-to-severe TBI underwent magnetic resonance imaging in the acute phase (within 1 week of injury) and twice in the chronic phase of injury (median 7 and 21 months), with some undergoing imaging at up to 2 additional time points. Longitudinal imaging changes were assessed using structural volumetry, deterministic tractography, voxel-based diffusion tensor analysis, and region of interest analyses (including corpus callosum, parasagittal white matter, and thalamus). Imaging changes were related to behavior. RESULTS: Changes in structural volumes, fractional anisotropy, and mean diffusivity continued for months to years postictus. Changes in diffusion tensor imaging were driven by increases in both axial and radial diffusivity except for the earliest time point, and were associated with changes in reaction time and performance in a visual memory and learning task (paired associates learning). Dynamic structural changes after TBI can be detected using diffusion tensor imaging and could explain changes in behavior. CONCLUSIONS: These data can provide further insight into early and late pathophysiology, and begin to provide a framework that allows magnetic resonance imaging to be used as an imaging biomarker of therapy response. Knowledge of the temporal pattern of changes in TBI patient populations also provides a contextual framework for assessing imaging changes in individuals at any given time point