Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF's medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 1 January 2008 to 30 September 2012 on a selected midlatitude large-scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270 000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology

A high-resolution view of the jets in 3C 465

This article has been accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society ©: 2020 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/staa147.We present new high-resolution and high-sensitivity studies of the jets in the WAT source 3C 465, using deep transverse-resolved radio observations from e-MERLIN, and with complementary observations from the VLA. We derive a lower limit $\beta_{\rm j}$ = ($\nu_{\rm j}$/$c$) $\gtrsim$ 0.5 for the jet speed, and an upper limit $\theta_{\rm j}$ $\lesssim$ 61$^{\circ}$ for the jet angle to the line of sight. The jet spectral index ($\alpha$, defined in the sense $S \propto \nu^{\alpha}$) is fairly constant ( = $-$0.7), and spectral flattening within 4.4 kpc of the core coincides with bright knots and is consistent with the site of X-ray particle acceleration at the base of the radio jet found in previous studies. There is little difference between the spectra of the two hotspot components, plausibly indicating that electron populations of the same properties are injected there. The NW and SE plumes are approximately homologous structures, with variations in mass injection and propagation in external pressure and density gradients in the two regions plausibly accounting for the slightly steeper spectrum in the NW plume, = $-$1.43 compared with the SE plume, = $-$1.38. Our synchrotron lifetime model supports plausible reacceleration of particles within the plume materials. Overall, our results show that the first-order Fermi process at mildly relativistic and non-relativistic shocks is the most likely acceleration mechanism at play in 3C 465 and distinguish differences between the acceleration at $\beta_{\rm j}$ $>$ 0.5 and $\beta_{\rm j}$ $Peer reviewe

Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin

Enduring and extensive heavy precipitation events associated with widespread river floods are among the main natural hazards affecting central Europe. Since such events are characterized by long return periods, it is difficult to adequately quantify their frequency and intensity solely based on the available observations of precipitation. Furthermore, long-term observations are rare, not homogeneous in space and time, and thus not suitable to running hydrological models (HMs) with respect to extremes. To overcome this issue, we make use of the recently introduced LAERTES-EU (LArge Ensemble of Regional climaTe modEl Simulations for EUrope) data set, which is an ensemble of regional climate model simulations providing over 12 000 simulated years. LAERTES-EU is adapted for use in an HM to calculate discharges for large river basins by applying quantile mapping with a parameterized gamma distribution to correct the mainly positive bias in model precipitation. The Rhine basin serves as a pilot area for calibration and validation. The results show clear improvements in the representation of both precipitation (e.g., annual cycle and intensity distributions) and simulated discharges by the HM after the bias correction. Furthermore, the large size of LAERTES-EU also improves the statistical representativeness for high return values above 100 years of discharges. We conclude that the bias-corrected LAERTES-EU data set is generally suitable for hydrological applications and posterior risk analyses. The results of this pilot study will soon be applied to several large river basins in central Europe

Macromolecular Traits in the African Rice Oryza glaberrima and in Glaberrima/Sativa Crosses, and Their Relevance to Processing

Molecular properties of proteins and starch were investigated in 2 accessions of Oryza glaberrima and Oryza sativa, and in one NERICA cross between the 2 species, to assess traits that could be relevant to transformation into specific foods. Protein nature and organization in O. glaberrima were different from those in O. sativa and in NERICA. Despite the similar cysteine content in all samples, thiol accessibility in O. glaberrima proteins was higher than in NERICA or in O. sativa. Inter-protein disulphide bonds were important for the formation of protein aggregates in O. glaberrima, whereas non-covalent protein-protein interactions were relevant in NERICA and O. sativa. DSC and NMR studies indicated only minor differences in the structure of starch in these species, as also made evident by their microstructural features. Nevertheless, starch gelatinization in O. glaberrima was very different from what was observed in O. sativa and NERICA. The content of soluble species in gelatinized starch from the various species in the presence/absence of treatments with specific enzymes indicated that release of small starch breakdown products was lowest in O. glaberrima, in particular from the amylopectin component. These findings may explain the low glycemic index of O. glaberrima, and provide a rationale for extending the use of O. glaberrima in the production of specific rice-based products, thus improving the economic value and the market appeal of African crops

Diversity in new flagellum tip attachment in bloodstream form African trypanosomes

The closely-related parasites Trypanosoma brucei, T. congolense, and T. vivax cause neglected tropical diseases collectively known as African Trypanosomiasis. A characteristic feature of bloodstream form T. brucei is the flagellum that is laterally attached to the side of the cell body. During the cell cycle, the new flagellum is formed alongside the old flagellum, with the new flagellum tip embedded within a mobile transmembrane junction called the groove. The molecular composition of the groove is currently unknown, which limits the analysis of this junction and assessment of its conservation in related trypanosomatids. Here, we identified 13 proteins that localise to the flagellar groove through a small-scale tagging screen. Functional analysis of a subset of these proteins by RNAi and gene deletion revealed three proteins, FCP4/TbKin15, FCP7, and FAZ45, that are involved in new flagellum tip attachment to the groove. Despite possessing orthologues of all 13 groove proteins, T. congolense and T. vivax did not assemble a canonical groove around the new flagellum tip according to 3D electron microscopy. This diversity in new flagellum tip attachment points to the rapid evolution of membrane-cytoskeleton structures that can occur without large changes in gene complement and likely reflects the niche specialisation of each species

Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in human and natural systems in six countries

The Topical Collection “Accrual of Climate Change Risk in Six Vulnerable Countries” provides a harmonised assessment of risks to human and natural systems due to global warming of 1.5–4 °C in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, and India) using a consistent set of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. It compares risks in 2100 if warming has reached 3 °C, broadly corresponding to current global greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, including countries’ National Determined Contributions, rather than the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to ‘well below’ 2 °C and ‘pursuing efforts’ to limit to 1.5 °C. Global population is assumed either constant at year 2000 levels or to increase to 9.2 billion by 2100. In either case, greater warming is projected to lead, in all six countries, to greater exposure of land and people to drought and fluvial flood hazard, greater declines in biodiversity, and greater reductions in the yield of maize and wheat. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, compared with ~ 3 °C, is projected to deliver large benefits for all six countries, including reduced economic damages due to fluvial flooding. The greatest projected benefits are the avoidance of a large increase in exposure of agricultural land to severe drought, which is 61%, 43%, 18%, and 21% lower in Ethiopia, China, Ghana, and India at 1.5 °C than at 3 °C, whilst avoided increases in human exposure to severe drought are 20–80% lower at 1.5 °C than 3 °C across the six countries. Climate refugia for plants are largely preserved at 1.5 °C warming in Ghana, China, and Ethiopia, but refugia shrink in areal extent by a factor of 2, 3, 3, 4, and 10 in Ghana, China, India, Ethiopia, and Brazil, respectively, if warming reaches 3 °C. Economic damages associated with sea-level rise are projected to increase in coastal nations, but more slowly if warming were limited to 1.5 °C. Actual benefits on the ground will also depend on national and local contexts and the extent of future investment in adaptation

Radio jets in NGC 1068 with e-MERLIN and VLA: structure and morphology

We present new high-sensitivity e-MERLIN and VLA radio images of the prototypical Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC 1068 at 5, 10 and 21 GHz. We image the radio jet, from the compact components NE, C, S1 and S2 to the faint double-lobed jet structure of the NE and SW jet lobes. Furthermore, we map the jet between by combining e-MERLIN and VLA data for the first time. Components NE, C and S2 have steep spectra indicative of optically-thin non-thermal emission domination between 5 and 21 GHz. Component S1, which is where the AGN resides, has a flat radio spectrum. We report a new component, S2a, a part of the southern jet. We compare these new data with the MERLIN and VLA data observed in 1983, 1992 and 1995 and report a flux decrease by a factor of 2 in component C, suggesting variability of this jet component. With the high angular resolution e-MERLIN maps, we detect the bow shocks in the NE jet lobe that coincide with the molecular gas outflows observed with ALMA. The NE jet lobe has enough radio power considered to be responsible for driving out the dense molecular gas observed with ALMA around the same region

Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU RCM ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: A pilot study for the Rhine basin

Enduring and extensive heavy precipitation associated with widespread river floods are among the main natural hazards affecting Central Europe. Since such events are characterized by long return periods, it is difficult to adequately quantify their frequency and intensity solely based on the available observations of precipitation. Furthermore, long-term observations are rare, not homogeneous in space and time, and thus not suitable to run hydrological models (HMs) with respect to extremes. To overcome this issue, we make use of the recently introduced LAERTES-EU (LArge Ensemble of Regional climaTe modEl Simulations for EUrope) data set, which is an ensemble of regional climate model simulations providing over 12.000 simulated years. LAERTES-EU is adapted for the use in an HM to calculate discharges for large river basins by applying a quantile mapping with a fixed density function to correct the mainly positive bias in model precipitation. The Rhine basin serves as a pilot area for calibration and validation. The results show clear improvements in the representation of both precipitation (e.g., annual cycle and intensity distributions) and simulated discharges by the HM after the bias correction. Furthermore, the large size of LAERTES-EU improves the statistical representativeness also for high return values above 100 years of discharges. We conclude that the bias-corrected LAERTES-EU data set is generally suitable for hydrological applications and posterior risk analyses. The results of this pilot study will soon be applied to several large river basins in Central Europe

Identification of Trypanosome Proteins in Plasma from African Sleeping Sickness Patients Infected with T. b. rhodesiense

Control of human African sleeping sickness, caused by subspecies of the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma brucei, is based on preventing transmission by elimination of the tsetse vector and by active diagnostic screening and treatment of infected patients. To identify trypanosome proteins that have potential as biomarkers for detection and monitoring of African sleeping sickness, we have used a ‘deep-mining” proteomics approach to identify trypanosome proteins in human plasma. Abundant human plasma proteins were removed by immunodepletion. Depleted plasma samples were then digested to peptides with trypsin, fractionated by basic reversed phase and each fraction analyzed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). This sample processing and analysis method enabled identification of low levels of trypanosome proteins in pooled plasma from late stage sleeping sickness patients infected with Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense. A total of 254 trypanosome proteins were confidently identified. Many of the parasite proteins identified were of unknown function, although metabolic enzymes, chaperones, proteases and ubiquitin-related/acting proteins were found. This approach to the identification of conserved, soluble trypanosome proteins in human plasma offers a possible route to improved disease diagnosis and monitoring, since these molecules are potential biomarkers for the development of a new generation of antigen-detection assays. The combined immuno-depletion/mass spectrometric approach can be applied to a variety of infectious diseases for unbiased biomarker identification