Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to assess these future changes. This study assesses the consequences for BES in Europe under four socio-environmental scenarios designed from a BES perspective. We evaluated these scenarios using two integrated assessment models (IMAGE-GLOBIO and CLIMSAVE IAP, respectively). Our results showed that (i) climate and land use change will continue to pose significant threats to biodiversity and some ecosystem services, even in the most optimistic scenario; (ii) none of the four scenarios achieved overall preservation of BES in Europe; and (iii) targeted policies (e.g. on climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management) and behavioural change (e.g. reducing meat consumption, water-saving behaviour) reduced the magnitude of BES loss. These findings stress the necessity of more ambitious policies and actions if BES in Europe are to be safeguarded. We further found that the multi-modelling approach was critical to account for complementary BES dimensions and highlighted different sources of uncertainties (e.g. related to land use allocation, driving forces behind BES changes, trade assumptions), which facilitated nuanced and contextualised insights with respect to possible BES futures

New EU-scale environmental scenarios until 2050 – scenario process and initial scenario applications

Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders. In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach

Assessment of global land availability: land supply for agriculture

We developed a new assessment method of the land supply for agriculture, on a grid scale basis and per region, which takes into account both biophysical, institutional and socio-economic parameters of land availability and suitability for conversion into agricultural production. In many world regions most of the available and suitable land has already been included in agricultural production. Our assessment focuses on the issue of remaining (i.e. potentially available and suitable) agricultural land per region. We first estimated the total available and biophysically suitable land by excluding areas with certain biophysical restrictions (i.e. marginally productive areas, permafrost, steep slopes, wetlands, built-up area). Secondly, we applied institutional parameters of land suitability to exclude protected areas and – in some regions – also intact forests. Thirdly, we used a suitability index to define the potentially available land that is also suitable for conversion to agricultural production from a socio-economic perspective. Subsequently, we subtracted the current agricultural land from the total available and suitable land to derive the remaining (i.e. potentially available and suitable) land per region. As well, we provided the information on the quality and suitability of the available land, based on classes of crop productivity. We also discuss the distribution of global grasslands, in both intensive and extensive agricultural systems, and the effects of this distribution on potentially available land per region. Our results are applicable for global change analysis and modelling. Accurate estimation of agricultural land currently in use influences the possible impact on regional land use change and associated land use emissions from implementation of land-based mitigation schemes, such as REDD, or other policies (e.g. RED)

Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges : An exploratory study considering multiple objectives for Flevoland, the Netherlands

Climate change is expressed in both a shift of mean climatic conditions and an increase in the frequency and severity of weather extremes. The weather extremes are often projected to have a larger impact on agricultural production than the average increase in temperature or average change in precipitation. To cope with the impacts of future climate change, farmers will have to apply adaptation measures at crop and farm level. The choice of the adaptation measures is determined by farm resources, current layout and performance of the farm and farmers’ objectives. Here we present a method to assess the importance of crop and farm level measures to adapt to climate change and extreme events considering farmers’ different objectives. We used a multi-objective optimization model to generate alternative farm plans and assess the impacts of crop and farm level adaptation measures in terms of farm performance on the objectives of maximizing farm economic result (gross margin) and soil quality (soil organic matter balance); these objectives were previously identified as most important to farmers. Two local scenarios were investigated: one based on a 2 °C increase in global temperature in 2050, including changes in air circulation resulting in drier summers, and one based on a 1 °C increase in global temperature, without changes in air circulation. Our results for six surveyed arable farms in the province of Flevoland (the Netherlands) suggest that average climate change improves farm performance in terms of farm economic result. The degree of improvement varies per scenario and per farm, depending on the cropping pattern. At the same time, extreme events may reverse positive impacts of average climate change, and can pose large risks. A combination of crop and farm level adaptation is needed for the surveyed farms in terms of improving both farm economic result and organic matter balance. A shift to (more) winter wheat, in systems dominated by root crops, is an estimated effective strategy to improve the organic matter balance and maintain farm economic result under climate change and extreme events.</p

Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process, storylines and quantification of drivers

To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess complex and uncertain problems, such as food security. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios up to the year 2050 that are specifically designed for food security modelling. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios a participatory process is used, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. A novel approach is introduced to quantify a selection of key drivers that directly can be used as input in global integrated assessment models to assess the impact of aid, trade, agricultural and science policies on global food and nutrition security

FOODSECURE Scenario Driver Database

The FOODSECURE Scenario Driver Database contains projections for key drivers that, in combination with storylines, describe four scenarios for the assessment of global food security. The database provides information for 19 regions that together have global coverage for the period 2010-2050

Scenarios to explore global food security up to 2050: Development process,

To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess complex and uncertain problems, such as food security. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios up to the year 2050 that are specifically designed for food security modelling. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios a highly participatory process is used, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. A novel approach is introduced to quantify a selection of key drivers that directly can be used as input in global integrated assessment models to assess the impact of aid, trade, agricultural and science policies on global food and nutrition security

Pathways for agriculture and forestry to contribute to terrestrial biodiversity conservation : A global scenario-study

If the world stays on its current development path, the state of biodiversity will continue to decline. This is due to projected further increases in pressures, most prominently habitat loss and climate change. In order to reduce these pressures, biodiversity conservation and restoration, as well as sustainable resource use, needs to be an integral part of sustainable development strategies of primary production sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy. This paper presents a model-based analysis of three alternative pathways described as Global Technology, Decentralized Solutions and Consumption Change to conserve biodiversity. Each of these pathways pursues international biodiversity goals together with a broader set of environmental sustainability objectives, including feeding the world, universal access to modern energy, limiting climate change and controlling air pollution. We show that different combinations of bio-physical measures, ecosystem management changes and behavioural changes can globally substantially reduce biodiversity loss in the coming decades (avoided Mean Species Abundance (MSA) loss is 4.4–4.8% MSA, compared to 9.5% MSA loss in the Trend), although the types of biodiversity conserved in the pathways will be different. The agricultural and forestry sectors together have until 2010 globally caused almost 60% of the total reduction in terrestrial biodiversity in MSA terms and 55% of the expected loss up to 2050. We show that increased productivity by technological improvements, increased use of ecological methods in agriculture and forestry, and consumption changes help to avoid biodiversity loss by 3.1–3.5% MSA. In addition, combinations of pathways, taking into account specific regional contexts, might result in even larger reduction of biodiversity loss. The changes needed in the agricultural and forestry sector to achieve this go well beyond current efforts to reduce their impact on biodiversity