An Efficient Interpolation Technique for Jump Proposals in Reversible-Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo Calculations

Selection among alternative theoretical models given an observed data set is an important challenge in many areas of physics and astronomy. Reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) is an extremely powerful technique for performing Bayesian model selection, but it suffers from a fundamental difficulty: it requires jumps between model parameter spaces, but cannot efficiently explore both parameter spaces at once. Thus, a naive jump between parameter spaces is unlikely to be accepted in the MCMC algorithm and convergence is correspondingly slow. Here we demonstrate an interpolation technique that uses samples from single-model MCMCs to propose inter-model jumps from an approximation to the single-model posterior of the target parameter space. The interpolation technique, based on a kD-tree data structure, is adaptive and efficient in modest dimensionality. We show that our technique leads to improved convergence over naive jumps in an RJMCMC, and compare it to other proposals in the literature to improve the convergence of RJMCMCs. We also demonstrate the use of the same interpolation technique as a way to construct efficient "global" proposal distributions for single-model MCMCs without prior knowledge of the structure of the posterior distribution, and discuss improvements that permit the method to be used in higher-dimensional spaces efficiently.Comment: Minor revision to match published versio

The Formation and Gravitational-Wave Detection of Massive Stellar Black-Hole Binaries

If binaries consisting of two 100 Msun black holes exist they would serve as extraordinarily powerful gravitational-wave sources, detectable to redshifts of z=2 with the advanced LIGO/Virgo ground-based detectors. Large uncertainties about the evolution of massive stars preclude definitive rate predictions for mergers of these massive black holes. We show that rates as high as hundreds of detections per year, or as low as no detections whatsoever, are both possible. It was thought that the only way to produce these massive binaries was via dynamical interactions in dense stellar systems. This view has been challenged by the recent discovery of several stars with mass above 150 Msun in the R136 region of the Large Magellanic Cloud. Current models predict that when stars of this mass leave the main sequence, their expansion is insufficient to allow common envelope evolution to efficiently reduce the orbital separation. The resulting black-hole--black-hole binary remains too wide to be able to coalesce within a Hubble time. If this assessment is correct, isolated very massive binaries do not evolve to be gravitational-wave sources. However, other formation channels exist. For example, the high multiplicity of massive stars, and their common formation in relatively dense stellar associations, opens up dynamical channels for massive black hole mergers (e.g., via Kozai cycles or repeated binary-single interactions). We identify key physical factors that shape the population of very massive black-hole--black-hole binaries. Advanced gravitational-wave detectors will provide important constraints on the formation and evolution of very massive stars.Comment: ApJ accepted, extended description of modelin

Relativistic Doppler effect in quantum communication

When an electromagnetic signal propagates in vacuo, a polarization detector cannot be rigorously perpendicular to the wave vector because of diffraction effects. The vacuum behaves as a noisy channel, even if the detectors are perfect. The ``noise'' can however be reduced and nearly cancelled by a relative motion of the observer toward the source. The standard definition of a reduced density matrix fails for photon polarization, because the transversality condition behaves like a superselection rule. We can however define an effective reduced density matrix which corresponds to a restricted class of positive operator-valued measures. There are no pure photon qubits, and no exactly orthogonal qubit states.Comment: 10 pages LaTe

The theory of heating of the quantum ground state of trapped ions

Using a displacement operator formalism, I analyse the depopulation of the vibrational ground state of trapped ions. Two heating times, one characterizing short time behaviour, the other long time behaviour are found. The short time behaviour is analyzed both for single and multiple ions, and a formula for the relative heating rates of different modes is derived. The possibility of correction of heating via the quantum Zeno effect, and the exploitation of the suppression of heating of higher modes to reduce errors in quantum computation is considered.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure

Bayesian Methods for Exoplanet Science

Exoplanet research is carried out at the limits of the capabilities of current telescopes and instruments. The studied signals are weak, and often embedded in complex systematics from instrumental, telluric, and astrophysical sources. Combining repeated observations of periodic events, simultaneous observations with multiple telescopes, different observation techniques, and existing information from theory and prior research can help to disentangle the systematics from the planetary signals, and offers synergistic advantages over analysing observations separately. Bayesian inference provides a self-consistent statistical framework that addresses both the necessity for complex systematics models, and the need to combine prior information and heterogeneous observations. This chapter offers a brief introduction to Bayesian inference in the context of exoplanet research, with focus on time series analysis, and finishes with an overview of a set of freely available programming libraries.Comment: Invited revie

Modeling Kepler transit light curves as false positives: Rejection of blend scenarios for Kepler-9, and validation of Kepler-9d, a super-Earth-size planet in a multiple system

Light curves from the Kepler Mission contain valuable information on the nature of the phenomena producing the transit-like signals. To assist in exploring the possibility that they are due to an astrophysical false positive, we describe a procedure (BLENDER) to model the photometry in terms of a "blend" rather than a planet orbiting a star. A blend may consist of a background or foreground eclipsing binary (or star-planet pair) whose eclipses are attenuated by the light of the candidate and possibly other stars within the photometric aperture. We apply BLENDER to the case of Kepler-9, a target harboring two previously confirmed Saturn-size planets (Kepler-9b and Kepler-9c) showing transit timing variations, and an additional shallower signal with a 1.59-day period suggesting the presence of a super-Earth-size planet. Using BLENDER together with constraints from other follow-up observations we are able to rule out all blends for the two deeper signals, and provide independent validation of their planetary nature. For the shallower signal we rule out a large fraction of the false positives that might mimic the transits. The false alarm rate for remaining blends depends in part (and inversely) on the unknown frequency of small-size planets. Based on several realistic estimates of this frequency we conclude with very high confidence that this small signal is due to a super-Earth-size planet (Kepler-9d) in a multiple system, rather than a false positive. The radius is determined to be 1.64 (+0.19/-0.14) R(Earth), and current spectroscopic observations are as yet insufficient to establish its mass.Comment: 20 pages in emulateapj format, including 8 tables and 16 figures. To appear in ApJ, 1 January 2010. Accepted versio

The Lupus Transit Survey For Hot Jupiters: Results and Lessons

We present the results of a deep, wide-field transit survey targeting Hot Jupiter planets in the Lupus region of the Galactic plane conducted over 53 nights concentrated in two epochs separated by a year. Using the Australian National University 40-inch telescope at Siding Spring Observatory (SSO), the survey covered a 0.66 sq. deg. region close to the Galactic Plane (b=11 deg.) and monitored a total of 110,372 stars (15.0<V<22.0). Using difference imaging photometry, 16,134 light curves with a photometric precision of sigma<0.025 mag were obtained. These light curves were searched for transits, and four candidates were detected that displayed low-amplitude variability consistent with a transiting giant planet. Further investigations, including spectral typing and radial velocity measurements for some candidates, revealed that of the four, one is a true planetary companion (Lupus-TR-3), two are blended systems (Lupus-TR-1 and 4), and one is a binary (Lupus-TR-2). The results of this successful survey are instructive for optimizing the observational strategy and follow-up procedure for deep searches for transiting planets, including an upcoming survey using the SkyMapper telescope at SSO.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables. Accepted for publication in A

Five Kepler target stars that show multiple transiting exoplanet candidates

We present and discuss five candidate exoplanetary systems identified with the Kepler spacecraft. These five systems show transits from multiple exoplanet candidates. Should these objects prove to be planetary in nature, then these five systems open new opportunities for the field of exoplanets and provide new insights into the formation and dynamical evolution of planetary systems. We discuss the methods used to identify multiple transiting objects from the Kepler photometry as well as the false-positive rejection methods that have been applied to these data. One system shows transits from three distinct objects while the remaining four systems show transits from two objects. Three systems have planet candidates that are near mean motion commensurabilities---two near 2:1 and one just outside 5:2. We discuss the implications that multitransiting systems have on the distribution of orbital inclinations in planetary systems, and hence their dynamical histories; as well as their likely masses and chemical compositions. A Monte Carlo study indicates that, with additional data, most of these systems should exhibit detectable transit timing variations (TTV) due to gravitational interactions---though none are apparent in these data. We also discuss new challenges that arise in TTV analyses due to the presence of more than two planets in a system.Comment: Accepted to Ap