Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts – Applications to sea-level rise and to CO 2 storage operations risk assessment

International audienceIn a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO 2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO 2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster-Shafer theory has been used to represent and aggregate these pieces of information. The results of different aggregation rules as well as those of a classical probabilistic approach are compared with the purpose of highlighting the elements each of them could provide to the decision-maker (Manceau et al., 2016). The second example focuses on projections of future sea-level rise. Based on IPCC's constraints on the projection quantiles, and on the scientific community consensus level on the physical limits to future sea-level rise, a possibility distribution of the projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario has been established. This possibility distribution has been confronted with a set of previously published probabilistic sea-level projections, with a focus on their ability to explore high ranges of sea-level rise (Le Cozannet et al., 2016). These two examples are complementary in the sense that they allow to address various aspects of the problem (e.g. representation of different types of information, conflict among experts, sources dependence). Moreover, we believe that the issues faced during these two experiences can be generalized to many risks/hazards assessment situations. References Manceau, JC., Loschetter, A., Rohmer, J., de Lary, L., Le Guénan, T., Hnottavange-Telleen, K. (2016). Dealing with uncertainty on parameters elicited from a pool of experts for CCS risk assessment. Congrès λµ 20 (St-Malo, France). Le Cozannet G., Manceau JC., Rohmer, J. (2016). Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections within the framework of the possibility theory. Accepted in Environmental Research Letters

First occurrence of Xanthomonas campestris pv. raphanion wallflower (Erysimum cheiri) in the United Kingdom

In a study of diseases caused by Xanthomonas campestris on UK nursery-grown wallflowers (Erysimum cheiri), one isolate (P764) obtained in 1990 from Sussex differed from the others. The affected plants (cv. Bedder Mixed), showed distorted growth with chlorotic and necrotic spots, but no sectored V-shaped wilting, the most common symptom associated with xanthomonads in wallflowers. Other X. campestris isolates (including P763), were obtained from wallflowers with typical wilting. Infected plant material was comminuted in sterile 0.1% peptone solution and loopfuls streaked onto yeast dextrose chalk agar and nutrient dextrose agar (Lelliott & Stead, 1987). Plates were incubated for up to 72 hours at 28°C. Xanthomonas-like colonies were purified by re-streaking and isolates were maintained at -80°C (Protect System, UK)

T-PITM: a consistent formulation for seamless RANS/TLES coupling

In the frame of inhomogeneous turbulence, a consistent formalism to seamlessly bridge LES and RANS must be based on temporal filtering. Such an approach is presented, the temporal-PITM, based on a transport equations for the subfilter-scales. In order to obtain a balance resolved/modelled energy consistent with the cutoff frequency imposed by the local mesh refinement, a dynamical subfilter-scale model is used

Modeling the dioctahedral smectites layer charge variation versus structural Iron reduction level

Iron is one of the most common redox species in soils and sedimentary rocks. Amongst iron-bearing phases, phyllosilicates might play key roles in various bio-geochemical processes involving redox reactions, where structural Fe (Festr) can act as a renewable source/trap of electron. A large set of data from kinetics, spectroscopic or electrochemical studies on dioctahedral smectites demonstrates that reduction of Festr impacts many clay properties such as colour, layer charge, swelling pressure, colloidal properties that are linked to layer structural changes. Experiments also suggest that this mechanism is partly reversible, depending on type and properties of the primary oxidized clay, on how the reduction is induced (chemically and/or biologically) and on extent of iron reduction level. The complexity of the involved mechanisms makes the prediction of Festr redox properties challenging. For instance, only empirical models are currently available to quantify structural changes as a function of reduction level. However, a predictive and mechanistic model of these changes is a prerequisite to develop a thermodynamic model for Festr redox properties. In this contribution, we propose a mechanistic statistical model to explain 2:1 layer excess negative charge changes induced by structural Fe(III) to Fe(II) chemical reduction (by dithionite). This model completes this published by Drits and Manceau (2000) and was calibrated on data from our own and from the literature. Actually, a large number of studies on Festr redox properties (Eh and kinetics) neglects the major structural changes that occur during redox reactions of this material and that are partially reversible, and are focused in measuring a single Eh value. Actually, the complex relationship that exist between the different structural iron sites should lead to consider that not only one but several Fe(II)/Fe(III) poles (classes) must exist in the structure, thus exhibiting gradually decreasing Eh values. Hence, further developments of our model will include Crystal Field Theory (CFT) calculation to identify the variety of Festr redox potential, which arises from the varying Festr neighbouring inside the same structure and along the redox processes

1.Biominerals

金沢大学大学院自然科学研究科　環境科学Advanced light Source, Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryEnvironmental Geochemistry Group, LGIT, University J. Fourier and CNRSGeoscience Institute, Gutenberg InstituteEditor : Tazaki, Kazue, Cover:Scanning electoron microscopic photograph of Gallionella sp. in biomats of Aso caldera, Kyusyu, Japan. Various shapes of Gallonella sp. are shown (image:Moriichi, Shingo).COE, 金沢大学 水・土壌環境領域シンポジウム「地球環境における微生物の役割」, 日時：2002年12月4日（水）13：00～, 場所：金沢大学理学部3階第一実験

Buccal swabs allow efficient and reliable microsatellite genotyping in amphibians

Buccal swabs have recently been used as a minimally invasive sampling method in genetic studies of wild populations, including amphibian species. Yet it is not known to date what is the level of reliability for microsatellite genotypes obtained using such samples. Allelic dropout and false alleles may affect the genotyping derived from buccal samples. Here we quantified the success of microsatellite amplification and the rates of genotyping errors using buccal swabs in two amphibian species, the Alpine newt Triturus alpestris and the Green tree frog Hyla arborea, and we estimated two important parameters for downstream analyses, namely the number of repetitions required to achieve typing reliability and the probability of identity among genotypes. Amplification success was high, and only one locus tested required two to three repetitions to achieve reliable genotypes, showing that buccal swabbing is a very efficient approach allowing good quality DNA retrieval. This sampling method which allows avoiding the controversial toe-clipping will likely prove very useful in the context of amphibian conservatio

Statement on the dossier for a derogation request for the US authorities concerning cold-treated strawberry plants intended for planting.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health examined the report “Evaluation of Strawberry Nursery Plant Cold Treatments on Survival of the Whitefly, Bemisia tabaci”, submitted to the European Commission by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The report serves as technical justification for a derogation from requirements listed in Annex IV, Part A, Section 1, point 46 of the Council Directive 2000/29/EC. The Panel concluded that due to shortcomings in the report itself and in the experimental design of the study, this report does not demonstrate the effectiveness of the cold treatment proposed for the elimination of B. tabaci from strawberry plant consignments prepared for shipment to the EU. In addition, the Panel conducted a preliminary review of the available literature on viruses of strawberry and concluded that no B. tabaci‐transmitted viruses are currently known to infect strawberry and that no viruses of Fragaria listed in European Council Directive 2000/29/EC are known to be transmitted by B. tabaci. However, adult whiteflies of B. tabaci on strawberry consignments can carry plant viruses irrespective of whether strawberry is a host plant for these viruses and thus represent a pathway for the introduction of non‐European viruses. There is also some uncertainty concerning the extent to which known or unknown B. tabaci‐transmitted viruses could infect strawberry. Irrespective of the presence of B. tabaci, strawberry transplants from the US may represent a pathway for the introduction of any non‐European virus (and other potentially harmful organisms) of Fragaria

Implementation and validation of a second-moment RANS turbulence model in OpenFOAM ®

National audienceThe implementation and validation of the second-moment Elliptic Blending Reynolds Stress Model (EB-RSM) proposed by Manceau and Hanjalic is presented. The EB-RSM implementation is based on the finite-volume method available in the open-source OpenFOAM framework. Simulation results are compared against high-fidelity numerical solutions corresponding to test cases selected from the ERCOFTAC database involving flows with attached and separated boundary layers and streamline curvature effects. The performance of the second order model is also assessed by comparison with results obtained with low-Reynolds eddy-viscosity turbulence models