A New Look at the Easy-Hard-Easy Pattern of Combinatorial Search Difficulty

The easy-hard-easy pattern in the difficulty of combinatorial search problems as constraints are added has been explained as due to a competition between the decrease in number of solutions and increased pruning. We test the generality of this explanation by examining one of its predictions: if the number of solutions is held fixed by the choice of problems, then increased pruning should lead to a monotonic decrease in search cost. Instead, we find the easy-hard-easy pattern in median search cost even when the number of solutions is held constant, for some search methods. This generalizes previous observations of this pattern and shows that the existing theory does not explain the full range of the peak in search cost. In these cases the pattern appears to be due to changes in the size of the minimal unsolvable subproblems, rather than changing numbers of solutions.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

Nonparametric Estimation of an Additive Model With a Link Function

This paper describes an estimator of the additive components of a nonparametric additive model with a known link function. When the additive components are twice continuously differentiable, the estimator is asymptotically normally distributed with a rate of convergence in probability of n^{-2/5}. This is true regardless of the (finite) dimension of the explanatory variable. Thus, in contrast to the existing asymptotically normal estimator, the new estimator has no curse of dimensionality. Moreover, the estimator has an oracle property. The asymptotic distribution of each additive component is the same as it would be if the other components were known with certainty.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000814 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Rearranging the Family? Income Support and Elderly Living Arrangements in a Low Income Country

Despite the importance of living arrangements for well-being and production, the effect of changes in household income on living arrangements is not well understood. This study overcomes the identification problems that have limited the study of the link between income and living arrangements by exploiting a discontinuity in the benefit formula for the social pension in South Africa. In contrast to the findings of the existing literature from wealthier populations, we find no evidence that pension income is used to maintain the independence of black elders in South Africa. Rather, potential beneficiaries alter their household structure. Prime working age women depart, and we observe an increase in children under 5 and young women of child-bearing age. These shifts in co-residence patterns are consistent with a setting where prime age women have comparative advantage in work away from extended family relative to younger women. The additional income from old age support may induce a change in living arrangements to exploit this advantage.

Spatial and temporal clustering of dengue virus transmission in Thai villages.

BackgroundTransmission of dengue viruses (DENV), the leading cause of arboviral disease worldwide, is known to vary through time and space, likely owing to a combination of factors related to the human host, virus, mosquito vector, and environment. An improved understanding of variation in transmission patterns is fundamental to conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention strategies. To test the hypothesis that DENV transmission is spatially and temporally focal, we compared geographic and temporal characteristics within Thai villages where DENV are and are not being actively transmitted.Methods and findingsCluster investigations were conducted within 100 m of homes where febrile index children with (positive clusters) and without (negative clusters) acute dengue lived during two seasons of peak DENV transmission. Data on human infection and mosquito infection/density were examined to precisely (1) define the spatial and temporal dimensions of DENV transmission, (2) correlate these factors with variation in DENV transmission, and (3) determine the burden of inapparent and symptomatic infections. Among 556 village children enrolled as neighbors of 12 dengue-positive and 22 dengue-negative index cases, all 27 DENV infections (4.9% of enrollees) occurred in positive clusters (p < 0.01; attributable risk [AR] = 10.4 per 100; 95% confidence interval 1-19.8 per 100]. In positive clusters, 12.4% of enrollees became infected in a 15-d period and DENV infections were aggregated centrally near homes of index cases. As only 1 of 217 pairs of serologic specimens tested in positive clusters revealed a recent DENV infection that occurred prior to cluster initiation, we attribute the observed DENV transmission subsequent to cluster investigation to recent DENV transmission activity. Of the 1,022 female adult Ae. aegypti collected, all eight (0.8%) dengue-infected mosquitoes came from houses in positive clusters; none from control clusters or schools. Distinguishing features between positive and negative clusters were greater availability of piped water in negative clusters (p < 0.01) and greater number of Ae. aegypti pupae per person in positive clusters (p = 0.04). During primarily DENV-4 transmission seasons, the ratio of inapparent to symptomatic infections was nearly 1:1 among child enrollees. Study limitations included inability to sample all children and mosquitoes within each cluster and our reliance on serologic rather than virologic evidence of interval infections in enrollees given restrictions on the frequency of blood collections in children.ConclusionsOur data reveal the remarkably focal nature of DENV transmission within a hyperendemic rural area of Thailand. These data suggest that active school-based dengue case detection prompting local spraying could contain recent virus introductions and reduce the longitudinal risk of virus spread within rural areas. Our results should prompt future cluster studies to explore how host immune and behavioral aspects may impact DENV transmission and prevention strategies. Cluster methodology could serve as a useful research tool for investigation of other temporally and spatially clustered infectious diseases

Anti–3‐hydroxy‐3‐methylglutaryl‐coenzyme a reductase autoantibody‐positive necrotizing autoimmune myopathy with dermatomyositis‐like eruption

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143804/1/mus26072.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/143804/2/mus26072_am.pd

PAC-Bayesian Bounds for Randomized Empirical Risk Minimizers

The aim of this paper is to generalize the PAC-Bayesian theorems proved by Catoni in the classification setting to more general problems of statistical inference. We show how to control the deviations of the risk of randomized estimators. A particular attention is paid to randomized estimators drawn in a small neighborhood of classical estimators, whose study leads to control the risk of the latter. These results allow to bound the risk of very general estimation procedures, as well as to perform model selection

Multi-axis fields boost SABRE hyperpolarization via new strategies

The inherently low signal-to-noise ratio of NMR and MRI is now being addressed by hyperpolarization methods. For example, iridium-based catalysts that reversibly bind both parahydrogen and ligands in solution can hyperpolarize protons (SABRE) or heteronuclei (X-SABRE) on a wide variety of ligands, using a complex interplay of spin dynamics and chemical exchange processes, with common signal enhancements between $10^3-10^4$. This does not approach obvious theoretical limits, and further enhancement would be valuable in many applications (such as imaging mM concentration species in vivo). Most SABRE/X-SABRE implementations require far lower fields (${\mu}T-mT$) than standard magnetic resonance (>1T), and this gives an additional degree of freedom: the ability to fully modulate fields in three dimensions. However, this has been underexplored because the standard simplifying theoretical assumptions in magnetic resonance need to be revisited. Here we take a different approach, an evolutionary strategy algorithm for numerical optimization, Multi-Axis Computer-aided HEteronuclear Transfer Enhancement for SABRE (MACHETE-SABRE). We find nonintuitive but highly efficient multi-axial pulse sequences which experimentally can produce a 10-fold improvement in polarization over continuous excitation. This approach optimizes polarization differently than traditional methods, thus gaining extra efficiency

Sequential dengue virus infections detected in active and passive surveillance programs in Thailand, 1994-2010

BACKGROUND: The effect of prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure on subsequent heterologous infection can be beneficial or detrimental depending on many factors including timing of infection. We sought to evaluate this effect by examining a large database of DENV infections captured by both active and passive surveillance encompassing a wide clinical spectrum of disease. METHODS: We evaluated datasets from 17 years of hospital-based passive surveillance and nine years of cohort studies, including clinical and subclinical DENV infections, to assess the outcomes of sequential heterologous infections. Chi square or Fisher\u27s exact test was used to compare proportions of infection outcomes such as disease severity; ANOVA was used for continuous variables. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess risk factors for infection outcomes. RESULTS: Of 38,740 DENV infections, two or more infections were detected in 502 individuals; 14 had three infections. The mean ages at the time of the first and second detected infections were 7.6 +/- 3.0 and 11.2 +/- 3.0 years. The shortest time between sequential infections was 66 days. A longer time interval between sequential infections was associated with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in the second detected infection (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2-1.4). All possible sequential serotype pairs were observed among 201 subjects with DHF at the second detected infection, except DENV-4 followed by DENV-3. Among DENV infections detected in cohort subjects by active study surveillance and subsequent non-study hospital-based passive surveillance, hospitalization at the first detected infection increased the likelihood of hospitalization at the second detected infection. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing time between sequential DENV infections was associated with greater severity of the second detected infection, supporting the role of heterotypic immunity in both protection and enhancement. Hospitalization was positively associated between the first and second detected infections, suggesting a possible predisposition in some individuals to more severe dengue disease

Hadrophilic Dark Sectors at the Forward Physics Facility

Models with light dark sector and dark matter particles motivate qualitatively new collider searches. Here we carry out a comprehensive study of hadrophilic models with U(1)$_B$ and U(1)$_{B-3L_{\tau}}$ gauge bosons coupled to light dark matter. The new mediator particles in these models couple to quarks, but have suppressed couplings to leptons, providing a useful foil to the well-studied dark photon models. We consider current bounds from accelerator and collider searches, rare anomaly-induced decays, neutrino non-standard interactions, and dark matter direct detection. Despite the many existing constraints, these models predict a range of new signatures that can be seen in current and near future experiments, including dark gauge boson decays to the hadronic final states $\pi^+ \pi^- \pi^0$, $\pi^0 \gamma$, $K^+ K^-$, and $K_S K_L$ in FASER at LHC Run 3, enhancements of $\nu_{\tau}$ scattering rates in far-forward neutrino detectors, and thermal dark matter scattering in FLArE in the HL-LHC era. These models therefore motivate an array of different experiments in the far-forward region at the LHC, as could be accommodated in the proposed Forward Physics Facility