Double Layer Interval Graph Model: The Universal Tool for Data Driven Market Analysis and Forecasting

AbstractThis scientific work is dedicated to the development, improvement and application of double layer interval weighted graphs (DLIG) for non-stationary time series forecasting. This model appears to be the universal and easy-to-use tool for modeling the non-stationary time series and forecasting. We observe the double layer version of the model because it's the most representative way in the sense of main idea though you can add several layers more for different purposes. The first layer of the graph is based on empirical fluctuations of system and displays the most potential fluctuations of the system at the time of system training. The second layer of the graph as a superstructure of the first layer displays the degree of modeling error and it's connected with the first layer nodes by edges. The second layer is the way of supervised training implementation with the aim of error minimization

Effects of fires on vascular plant and microalgae communities of steppe ecosystems

The article is focused on a hypothesis verification: the higher plants, microalgae and cyanobacteria may be used in bioindication of steppe ecosystem restoration dynamics after fires. On the territory of the Askania Nova biosphere reserve (Ukraine) 4 stationary polygons were investigated: SP1 – steppe area which had not been exposed to fire for 20 years preceding our study, as well as areas where single fires occurred in 2001 (SP2), 2005 (SP3), and a site where fires occurred in 2001 and 2004 (SP4). The investigation revealed the dynamics of height and projected area of the higher vegetation according to seasons during two years (2010 and 2011), as well as abundance and biomass of microalgae and cyanoprokaryotes in the soil layer by the layer of the depth to 15 cm. It was found that the effects of pyrogenic load re-main evident for several years after the fires, manifesting in decrease of the height and projected area of herbage, the number and biomass of algae and cyanobacteria in the soil, especially to the depth of 5 cm. Multivariate general linear models were used to test the significance of the dependence of quantitative characteristics of vegetation, microalgae, and cyanoprokaryotes on environmental predictors (season, year, soil layer, and fire). In the model, 75.2% of the grass height variability and 91.6% of the grass projected area variability could be explained by the predictors under consideration. In the series SP1 → SP2 → SP3 → SP4 the grass height and projected area decreased. The differences in the projected area of the grass stand were most evident in spring. The model explained 89.1% of the variation in abundance and 91.6% of the variation in biomass of Bacillariophyceae. The abundance of Bacillariophyceae was greater in the upper soil layer than in the lower layer and decreased with depth. The abundance of this group of algae decreased in the series SP1 → SP2 → SP3 → SP4 at depths of 0–5 and 5–10 cm. Changes in abundances of Chlorophyta, Streptophyta, Heterokontophyta (Xanthophyceae and Eustigmatophyceae) equaling 47.6% could also be explained by the model. The abundance of this group of algae was greatest in the upper soil layer. In the upper soil layer, the maximum abundance of Chlorophyta, Streptophyta, and Heterokontophyta (Xanthophyceae and Eustigmatophyceae) was recorded for Polygon SP1 and the minimum for Polygon SP3. Within the model, 48.0% of the variation in biomass of Chlorophyta, Streptophyta, and Heterokontophyta (Xanthophyceae and Eustigmatophyceae) was explained by the environmental predictors. The biomass trend was cohe-rent with the population trend. A special feature was that there was a significant increase in biomass at 10–15 cm depth at Polygon SP3 compared to other polygons at this depth. The model was able to explain 61.8% of the variation in abundance and 66.7% of the variation in cyanobacteria biomass. The highest abundance of cyanobacteria was found in the upper soil layer of polygon SP1. Somewhat lower num-bers of cyanobacteria were at polygons SP2 and SP4, and the lowest were found in the upper soil layer at polygon SP3. In turn, the highest number of cyanobacteria was found particularly at this polygon in the 5–10 cm layer. The biomass in the 0–5 cm layer was coherent with the abundance pattern of this group. The research results confirmed that the quantitative characteristics of the higher vegetation (height and projected area) as well as of microalgae and cyanobacteria (abundance and biomass) may be used in bioindication of the dynamics of post-pyrogenic processes in steppe ecosystems

Effect of the state of stress on the strain-induced martensite formation in 03Kh14N11K5M2YuT steel

The structural changes that occur in a metastable austenitic Fe-Cr-Ni-based steel during cold plastic deformation by drawing and tension are analyzed. A relation between the structure of the steel and its mechanical and magnetic properties is established. It is concluded that the stress state scheme considerably affects the rate of martensite formation. © 2013 Pleiades Publishing, Ltd

Innovation and Competitiveness in Today’s Technological and Social Transformations

The rapid political and economic changes of recent years and the fourth industrial revolution have opened up new opportunities that are changing the face of the modern economy. At the same time, new risks and threats to the sustainability of development have arisen. In this context, the role of technology and innovation, seen as a factor in the competitiveness of the national economy, requires rethinking. The paper analyses empirical data on the impact of innovation on competitiveness, which led to the conclusion that the influence of this factor has increased, including in the context of the growth of protectionism, the need to move to a model of sustainable development, which requires increased state support for innovation and innovative ecosystems

ORGANIZATION OF THE FINANCIAL MONITORING AT THE ENTERPRISES OF THE TRANSPORT COMPLEX

The indicators of financial stability of the transport company, the role of financial recovery in the system of crisis management of the organization have been considered. The essence, goals and objectives of financial recovery have been analyzed. Methodological approaches to assessing the solvency of transport enterprises as part of the analysis of their financial and production activities have been proposed. The features of the management of the transport organization in conditions of uncertainty and risk have been revealed. The main causes of insolvency of transport companies have been considered. The factors influencing the formation of the financial policy of the enterprises of the transport complex have been traced. The importance of assessing the long-term prospects for the development of the enterprise, analyzing its capabilities, and the influence of external factors has been emphasized. The stages of improving the system of financial monitoring by a transport organization have been highlighted

Effect of mechanical activation on the composition if mineral components in humic acids isolated from carbons

It is shown that the mechanical activation of oxidized and brown coals is accompanied by an increase in the yield of humic acids and in their content of functional groups. It was demonstrated by atomic-emission spectroscopy that, under a high-intensity mechanical treatment, mineral elements are redistributed in the coal substance and incorporated into the structure of humic acids

ANTI-CRISIS STRATEGY OF THE TRANSPORT ORGANIZATION

The article considers the role of the anti-crisis strategy in the management system of the transport organization. The essence, the goals of the task of anti-crisis management are discussed. Methodological approaches to formation of the model of anti-crisis management of transport enterprises as part of their financial and production activities are proposed. The specifics of the management of the transport organization in conditions of uncertainty and risk are identified, and the main reasons for the insolvency of transport companies are considered. The factors influencing the formation of the anti-crisis strategy are traced, the importance of evaluating the long-term prospects of the enterprise development, analyzing its capabilities, as well as the influence of external factors, is emphasized. The stages of improving the management system of the transport organization are outlined

MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC RISKS IN TRANSPORT

The article considers the essence of the economic risks of transport companies, features of risk management in the transport sector. Selected problems of managerial decision-making under uncertainty. Deals with the analysis and risk assessment. The necessity of a systematic approach to risk management in transport

The influence of mechanochemical modification on prevention of toxic ability of humic acids towards phenanthrene in aquatic environment

Целью работы является количественная оценка взаимодействия фенантрена с модифицированными гуминовыми кислотами в водной среде. Изменение структуры и свойств ГК после модификации было изучено методами ИК-, {1}Н ЯМР - спектроскопии и потенциометрического титрования. Доказано что применение тиомочевины в качестве модифицирующего агента значительно увеличивает связывающую способность гуминовых кислот по отношению к фенантрену