Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

Background. Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains. Methods. To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R(0)) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Results. Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data. Conclusions. Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa

Trends in antimicrobial resistance in bloodstream infection isolates at a large urban hospital in Malawi (1998-2016): a surveillance study.

BACKGROUND Bacterial bloodstream infection is a common cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, yet few facilities are able to maintain long-term surveillance. The Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme has done sentinel surveillance of bacteraemia since 1998. We report long-term trends in bloodstream infection and antimicrobial resistance from this surveillance. METHODS In this surveillance study, we analysed blood cultures that were routinely taken from adult and paediatric patients with fever or suspicion of sepsis admitted to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi from 1998 to 2016. The hospital served an urban population of 920 000 in 2016, with 1000 beds, although occupancy often exceeds capacity. The hospital admits about 10 000 adults and 30 000 children each year. Antimicrobial susceptibility tests were done by the disc diffusion method according to British Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy guidelines. We used the Cochran-Armitage test for trend to examine trends in rates of antimicrobial resistance, and negative binomial regression to examine trends in icidence of bloodstream infection over time. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 1998, and Dec 31, 2016, we isolated 29 183 pathogens from 194 539 blood cultures. Pathogen detection decreased significantly from 327·1/100 000 in 1998 to 120·2/100 000 in 2016 (p<0·0001). 13 366 (51·1%) of 26 174 bacterial isolates were resistant to the Malawian first-line antibiotics amoxicillin or penicillin, chloramphenicol, and co-trimoxazole; 68·3% of Gram-negative and 6·6% of Gram-positive pathogens. The proportions of non-Salmonella Enterobacteriaceae with extended spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) or fluoroquinolone resistance rose significantly after 2003 to 61·9% in 2016 (p<0·0001). Between 2003 and 2016, ESBL resistance rose from 0·7% to 30·3% in Escherichia coli, from 11·8% to 90·5% in Klebsiella spp and from 30·4% to 71·9% in other Enterobacteriaceae. Similarly, resistance to ciprofloxacin rose from 2·5% to 31·1% in E coli, from 1·7% to 70·2% in Klebsiella spp and from 5·9% to 68·8% in other Enterobacteriaceae. By contrast, more than 92·0% of common Gram-positive pathogens remain susceptible to either penicillin or chloramphenicol. Meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was first reported in 1998 at 7·7% and represented 18·4% of S aureus isolates in 2016. INTERPRETATION The rapid expansion of ESBL and fluoroquinolone resistance among common Gram-negative pathogens, and the emergence of MRSA, highlight the growing challenge of bloodstream infections that are effectively impossible to treat in this resource-limited setting. FUNDING Wellcome Trust, H3ABionet, Southern Africa Consortium for Research Excellence (SACORE)

Frequent malaria illness episodes in two Malawian patients on antiretroviral therapy soon after stopping cotrimoxazole preventive therapy

We describe two Malawian adults on successful antiretroviral therapy who experienced frequent malaria episodes after stopping cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. We argue that, in addition to stopping cotrimoxazole, diminished malaria immunity and drug interactions between efavirenz and artemether–lumefantrine may have played a causative role in the recurrent malaria our patients experienced

High intrapulmonary rifampicin and isoniazid concentrations are associated with rapid sputum bacillary clearance in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis

This work was supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical PhD Fellowship [grant number 105392/B/14/Z to A.D.M. and L69AGB to JM]. ELC was supported by Wellcome [200901/Z/16/Z]. The Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Clinical Research Programme is supported by a strategic award from the Wellcome Trust [206545/Z/17/Z]. We also acknowledge infrastructural support for bioanalysis from the Liverpool Biomedical Research Centre funded by Liverpool Health Partners.Background Intrapulmonary pharmacokinetics may better explain response to tuberculosis (TB) treatment than plasma pharmacokinetics. We explored these relationships by modelling bacillary clearance in sputum in adult patients on first-line treatment in Malawi. Methods Bacillary elimination rates (BER) were estimated using linear mixed-effects modelling of serial time-to-positivity in mycobacterial growth indicator tubes for sputum collected during the intensive phase of treatment (weeks 0 to 8) for microbiologically confirmed TB. Population pharmacokinetic models used plasma and intrapulmonary drug levels at 8 and 16 weeks. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships were investigated using individual-level measures of drug exposure (AUC and Cmax) for rifampicin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol, in plasma, epithelial lining fluid, and alveolar cells as covariates in the bacillary elimination models. Results Among 157 participants (58% HIV co-infected), drug exposure in plasma or alveolar cells was not associated with sputum bacillary clearance. Higher peak concentrations (Cmax) or exposure (AUC) to rifampicin or isoniazid in epithelial lining fluid was associated with more rapid bacillary elimination and shorter time to sputum negativity. More extensive disease on baseline chest radiograph was associated with slower bacillary elimination. Clinical outcome was captured in 133 participants, with 15 (11%) unfavourable outcomes recorded (recurrent TB, failed treatment, or death). No relationship between BER and late clinical outcome was identified. Conclusions Greater intrapulmonary drug exposure to rifampicin or isoniazid in the epithelial lining fluid was associated with more rapid bacillary clearance. Higher doses of rifampicin and isoniazid may result in sustained high intrapulmonary drug exposure, rapid bacillary clearance, shorter treatment duration and better treatment outcomes.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Sustained Reduction in Third-generation Cephalosporin Usage in Adult Inpatients Following Introduction of an Antimicrobial Stewardship Program in a Large, Urban Hospital in Malawi

Background Third-generation cephalosporins (3GC) remain the first-choice empiric antibiotic for severe infection in many sub-Saharan African hospitals. In Malawi, limited availability of alternatives, mean that strategies to prevent spread of 3GC-resistance (3GC-R) are imperative, however suitable approaches to antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) in low-income settings are not well studied. Methods We introduced an AMS intervention to Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital (QECH) in Blantyre. The intervention consisted of a smartphone prescribing application and regular point-prevalence surveys (PPS) with prescriber feedback. We evaluate the effects of the intervention on 3GC usage and on cost of providing antibiotics. Using thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews and participant observations, we additionally evaluate the acceptability of the stewardship program. Results The proportion of antibiotic prescriptions for a 3GC reduced from 193/241 (80.1%) to 177/330 (53.6%) (percentage decrease 26.5% [95%CI; 18.7 to 34.1]) with no change in case-fatality rate. Cost analysis estimated annual savings of US$15,000. Qualitative research revealed trust in the guideline and found its accessibility through smartphones helpful to guide clinical decisions. Operational health-system barriers and hierarchal clinical relationships lead to continued reliance on 3GC. Conclusions We report the successful introduction of an antimicrobial stewardship approach in Malawi. By focusing on pragmatic interventions and simple aims, we demonstrate the feasibility, acceptability and cost-saving of a stewardship program where resources are limited. In doing so, we provide a suitable starting point for expansion of AMS interventions in this and other low-income settings

TSCQ study: a randomized, controlled, open-label trial of daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole or weekly chloroquine among adults on antiretroviral therapy in Malawi: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Before antiretroviral therapy (ART) became widely available in sub-Saharan Africa, several studies demonstrated that daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TS) prophylaxis reduced morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected adults. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended administering TS prophylaxis to this group. However, the applicability of the results to individuals taking ART and living in sub-Saharan Africa has not been definitively evaluated. This study aims to determine if TS prophylaxis benefits HIV-infected Malawian adults after a good response to ART. If TS prophylaxis does indeed show benefit, it is important to determine if this is due to its antibacterial and/or antimalarial properties. METHODS/DESIGN: A randomized, controlled, open-label, phase III trial of continued standard of care prophylaxis with daily trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TS) compared to discontinuation of standard of care TS prophylaxis and starting weekly chloroquine (CQ) prophylaxis or discontinuation of standard of care TS prophylaxis. The study will randomize 1400-1500 HIV-infected adults (equally divided over the three study arms) with a nondetectable viral load and a CD4 count of 250/mm(3) or more from antiretroviral therapy clinics in Blantyre and Zomba. The expected rate of primary endpoint events of death and WHO stage 3 and 4 events is 6.8 per 100 person-years of follow-up in all participants. Assuming the number of events follows a Poisson distribution and average participant follow-up after 10 % loss to follow-up is 41.6 months, the study will have approximately 85 % power to rule out a reduction of 35 % or more in primary endpoint events in the TS or CQ arms compared to discontinuation of TS prophylaxis-i.e., to show that discontinuation of TS prophylaxis is noninferior to either TS or CQ, with a noninferiority margin of 35 %. Ethical and regulatory approvals were obtained from the University of Malawi College of Medicine Research Ethics Committee; the Malawi Pharmacy, Medicines and Poisons Board; and the University of Maryland Baltimore Institutional Review Board. DISCUSSION: The study began recruitment activities at the Ndirande site in November 2012. The sponsor agreed to extend and expand the study in early 2015, and a second site, Zomba, was added for recruitment and follow-up in mid-2015. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01650558 (registered on 6 July 2012). PROTOCOL VERSION: Letter of amendment #1 to the DAIDS-ES 10822 TSCQ Malawi Protocol, Version 4.0, 16 December 2014

Late Presentation With HIV in Africa: Phenotypes, Risk, and Risk Stratification in the REALITY Trial.

This article has been accepted for publication in Clinical Infectious Diseases Published by Oxford University PressBackground: Severely immunocompromised human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have high mortality shortly after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART). We investigated predictors of early mortality and "late presenter" phenotypes. Methods: The Reduction of EArly MortaLITY (REALITY) trial enrolled ART-naive adults and children ≥5 years of age with CD4 counts .1). Results: Among 1711 included participants, 203 (12%) died. Mortality was independently higher with older age; lower CD4 count, albumin, hemoglobin, and grip strength; presence of World Health Organization stage 3/4 weight loss, fever, or vomiting; and problems with mobility or self-care at baseline (all P < .04). Receiving enhanced antimicrobial prophylaxis independently reduced mortality (P = .02). Of five late-presenter phenotypes, Group 1 (n = 355) had highest mortality (25%; median CD4 count, 28 cells/µL), with high symptom burden, weight loss, poor mobility, and low albumin and hemoglobin. Group 2 (n = 394; 11% mortality; 43 cells/µL) also had weight loss, with high white cell, platelet, and neutrophil counts suggesting underlying inflammation/infection. Group 3 (n = 218; 10% mortality) had low CD4 counts (27 cells/µL), but low symptom burden and maintained fat mass. The remaining groups had 4%-6% mortality. Conclusions: Clinical and laboratory features identified groups with highest mortality following ART initiation. A screening tool could identify patients with low CD4 counts for prioritizing same-day ART initiation, enhanced prophylaxis, and intensive follow-up. Clinical Trials Registration: ISRCTN43622374.REALITY was funded by the Joint Global Health Trials Scheme (JGHTS) of the UK Department for International Development, the Wellcome Trust, and Medical Research Council (MRC) (grant number G1100693). Additional funding support was provided by the PENTA Foundation and core support to the MRC Clinical Trials Unit at University College London (grant numbers MC_UU_12023/23 and MC_UU_12023/26). Cipla Ltd, Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare/GlaxoSmithKline, and Merck Sharp & Dohme donated drugs for REALITY, and ready-to-use supplementary food was purchased from Valid International. A. J. P. is funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant number 108065/Z/15/Z). J. A. B. is funded by the JGHTS (grant number MR/M007367/1). The Malawi-Liverpool–Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, University of Malawi College of Medicine (grant number 101113/Z/13/Z) and the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)/Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi (grant number 203077/Z/16/Z) are supported by strategic awards from the Wellcome Trust, United Kingdom. Permission to publish was granted by the Director of KEMRI. This supplement was supported by funds from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping the medical outcomes study HIV health survey (MOS-HIV) to the EuroQoL 5 Dimension (EQ-5D-3L) utility index

10.1186/s12955-019-1135-8Health and Quality of Life Outcomes1718