Effects of minimum epidemic and population sizes on a global epidemic in simulations of final size data

The stochastic SIR household epidemic model is well discussed in [2], [3] and [4]. The work of [1] also proposed maximum likelihood based algorithm for its inference by assuming independence of epidemic in each household, contrary to the dependency assumption in [4].Using simulations, we examined the need for an appropriate choice of cut-o between small and large epidemics often referred to as minimum epidemic size, using rejection sampling, for a global infection to occur and then compared the estimates of the model parameters over a range of theoretical parameters, LambdaL and lambdaG with corresponding z in [0; 1]:We found that with large population size, appropriate choice of the minimum epidemic size and lambdG not 0, facilitate the occurrence of a global epidemic.Thus, given these scenarios, the adequacy of the model fitness to the final size epidemic data is then realised

The Stochastic SIR Household Epidemics With TI ≡ 4:1 and TI Having GAMMA(a, b) Infectious Period Distribution

Model estimates, their functions are in no doubt affected by wrong choice of the infectious period distribution, TI when the actual one is unknown. This is a misspecification problem which is often accompanied with biased and imprecise estimates. This work does not com- pletely examined this problem but explored the choice of constant infectious period, TI ≡ 4.1 and TI distributed as Γ(2, 2.05) for the household epidemic and then examined their effects on the behaviours of the model functions and quality of its maximum likelihood estimates in order to see if there are considerable disparities in the maximum likelihood estimates and behaviours of the functions giving these scenarios and whether constant infectious period is a reasonable assumption for the stochastic SIR household epidemic. &nbsp

X-Ray Barrier Estimation - A Case Study of the General Radiography Room of a Major Nigerian Teaching Hospital

Background: The observation that the designing rules and calculations on shielding barrier thickness estimation for most general radiographic rooms are not being practised made the evaluation of the already existing shielding barrier of the general Radiography Room of Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital, Shika - Zaria to ascertain its shielding adequacy very necessary.Materials and Methods: The General Radiography Room with an area of 6.36m x 5m houses a Silhouette General X-ray machine; model MS-185N with serial number 0877 manufactured by General Electric (GE) Medical Systems in September, 2004. The evaluation was based on the method by NCRP Report No. 147, and used the number of patients examined in this room per week for shielding calculations.Results: The results showed that the barrier thickness required varied from 0.10 to 0.46mm of lead for the secondary barriers and 1.36mm of lead for the primary barrier. The ratio of the calculated to the current (already contructed) barrier thickness ranged from 0.09 to 0.23 for the secondary barriers and 0.68for the primary barrier .Conclusion: Based on the results from this study, the shielding barrier already provided in the General Radiography Room of Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital, Shika - Zaria is adequate and in the event of public access to the surrounding area, the dose rates are at acceptable limits

Urbanization and climate change: the role of road transport in carbon dioxide emission in Kano Metropolis, Nigeria

No AbstractKeywords: CO2 abatement, automobile density, climate change, global warming, greenhouse gase

The Energy Landscape, Folding Pathways and the Kinetics of a Knotted Protein

The folding pathway and rate coefficients of the folding of a knotted protein are calculated for a potential energy function with minimal energetic frustration. A kinetic transition network is constructed using the discrete path sampling approach, and the resulting potential energy surface is visualized by constructing disconnectivity graphs. Owing to topological constraints, the low-lying portion of the landscape consists of three distinct regions, corresponding to the native knotted state and to configurations where either the N- or C-terminus is not yet folded into the knot. The fastest folding pathways from denatured states exhibit early formation of the N-terminus portion of the knot and a rate-determining step where the C-terminus is incorporated. The low-lying minima with the N-terminus knotted and the C-terminus free therefore constitute an off-pathway intermediate for this model. The insertion of both the N- and C-termini into the knot occur late in the folding process, creating large energy barriers that are the rate limiting steps in the folding process. When compared to other protein folding proteins of a similar length, this system folds over six orders of magnitude more slowly.Comment: 19 page

Longitudinal relationships between caloric expenditure and gray matter in the cardiovascular health study

Background: Physical activity (PA) can be neuroprotective and reduce the risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In assessing physical activity, caloric expenditure is a proxy marker reflecting the sum total of multiple physical activity types conducted by an individual. Objective:To assess caloric expenditure, as a proxy marker of PA, as a predictive measure of gray matter (GM) volumes in the normal and cognitively impaired elderly persons. Methods: All subjects in this study were recruited from the Institutional Review Board approved Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a multisite population-based longitudinal study in persons aged 65 and older. We analyzed a sub-sample of CHS participants 876 subjects (mean age 78.3, 57.5% F, 42.5% M) who had i) energy output assessed as kilocalories (kcal) per week using the standardized Minnesota Leisure-Time Activities questionnaire, ii) cognitive assessments for clinical classification of normal cognition, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD, and iii) volumetric MR imaging of the brain. Voxel-based morphometry modeled the relationship between kcal/week and GM volumes while accounting for standard covariates including head size, age, sex, white matter hyperintensity lesions, MCI or AD status, and site. Multiple comparisons were controlled using a False Discovery Rate of 5 percent. Results: Higher energy output, from a variety of physical activity types, was associated with larger GM volumes in frontal, temporal, and parietal lobes, as well as hippocampus, thalamus, and basal ganglia. High levels of caloric expenditure moderated neurodegeneration-associated volume loss in the precuneus, posterior cingulate, and cerebellar vermis. Conclusion:Increasing energy output from a variety of physical activities is related to larger gray matter volumes in the elderly, regardless of cognitive status.Cyrus A. Raji, David A. Merrill, Harris Eyre, Sravya Mallam, Nare Torosyan, Kirk I. Erickson, Oscar L. Lopez , James T. Becker, Owen T. Carmichael, H. Michael Gach, Paul M. Thompson, W.T. Longstreth, Jr. and Lewis H. Kulle

Knotted vs. Unknotted Proteins: Evidence of Knot-Promoting Loops

Knotted proteins, because of their ability to fold reversibly in the same topologically entangled conformation, are the object of an increasing number of experimental and theoretical studies. The aim of the present investigation is to assess, on the basis of presently available structural data, the extent to which knotted proteins are isolated instances in sequence or structure space, and to use comparative schemes to understand whether specific protein segments can be associated to the occurrence of a knot in the native state. A significant sequence homology is found among a sizeable group of knotted and unknotted proteins. In this family, knotted members occupy a primary sub-branch of the phylogenetic tree and differ from unknotted ones only by additional loop segments. These "knot-promoting" loops, whose virtual bridging eliminates the knot, are found in various types of knotted proteins. Valuable insight into how knots form, or are encoded, in proteins could be obtained by targeting these regions in future computational studies or excision experiments

Systematic population screening, using biomarkers and genetic testing, identifies 2.5% of the U.K. pediatric diabetes population with monogenic diabetes

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.OBJECTIVE: Monogenic diabetes is rare but is an important diagnosis in pediatric diabetes clinics. These patients are often not identified as this relies on the recognition of key clinical features by an alert clinician. Biomarkers (islet autoantibodies and C-peptide) can assist in the exclusion of patients with type 1 diabetes and allow systematic testing that does not rely on clinical recognition. Our study aimed to establish the prevalence of monogenic diabetes in U.K. pediatric clinics using a systematic approach of biomarker screening and targeted genetic testing. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied 808 patients (79.5% of the eligible population) <20 years of age with diabetes who were attending six pediatric clinics in South West England and Tayside, Scotland. Endogenous insulin production was measured using the urinary C-peptide creatinine ratio (UCPCR). C-peptide-positive patients (UCPCR ≥0.2 nmol/mmol) underwent islet autoantibody (GAD and IA2) testing, with patients who were autoantibody negative undergoing genetic testing for all 29 identified causes of monogenic diabetes. RESULTS: A total of 2.5% of patients (20 of 808 patients) (95% CI 1.6-3.9%) had monogenic diabetes (8 GCK, 5 HNF1A, 4 HNF4A, 1 HNF1B, 1 ABCC8, 1 INSR). The majority (17 of 20 patients) were managed without insulin treatment. A similar proportion of the population had type 2 diabetes (3.3%, 27 of 808 patients). CONCLUSIONS: This large systematic study confirms a prevalence of 2.5% of patients with monogenic diabetes who were <20 years of age in six U.K. clinics. This figure suggests that ∼50% of the estimated 875 U.K. pediatric patients with monogenic diabetes have still not received a genetic diagnosis. This biomarker screening pathway is a practical approach that can be used to identify pediatric patients who are most appropriate for genetic testing.This work presents independent research commissioned by the Health Innovation Challenge Fund, a parallel funding partnership between the Wellcome Trust and the Department of Health (grant HICF-1009-041); and was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Exeter Clinical Research Facility and the South West Peninsula Diabetes Research Network. M.S. is supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. T.J.M. is funded by an NIHR CSO Fellowship. S.E. and A.T.H. are both Wellcome Trust Senior Investigators. E.R.P. is a Wellcome Trust New Investigator. A.T.H. is an NIHR Senior Investigator

Effects of a physical education intervention on cognitive function in young children: randomized controlled pilot study

Randomized controlled trials (RCT) are required to test relationships between physical activity and cognition in children, but these must be informed by exploratory studies. This study aimed to inform future RCT by: conducting practical utility and reliability studies to identify appropriate cognitive outcome measures; piloting an RCT of a 10 week physical education (PE) intervention which involved 2hours per week of aerobically intense PE compared to 2 hours of standard PE (control). 64 healthy children (mean age 6.2 yrs SD 0.3; 33 boys) recruited from 6 primary schools. Outcome measures were the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Battery (CANTAB), the Attention Network Test (ANT), the Cognitive Assessment System (CAS) and the short form of the Connor’s Parent Rating Scale (CPRS:S). Physical activity was measured habitually and during PE sessions using the Actigraph accelerometer. Test- retest intraclass correlations from CANTAB Spatial Span (r 0.51) and Spatial Working Memory Errors (0.59) and ANT Reaction Time (0.37) and ANT Accuracy (0.60) were significant, but low. Physical activity was significantly higher during intervention vs. control PE sessions (p <0.0001). There were no significant differences between intervention and control group changes in CAS scores. Differences between intervention and control groups favoring the intervention were observed for CANTAB Spatial Span, CANTAB Spatial Working Memory Errors, and ANT Accuracy. The present study has identified practical and age-appropriate cognitive and behavioral outcome measures for future RCT, and identified that schools are willing to increase PE time

Dengue virus is hyperendemic in Nigeria from 2009 to 2020: A contemporary systematic review

Backround: Data on Dengue virus (DENV) infection prevalence, geographic distribution and risk factors are necessary to direct appropriate utilization of existing and emerging control strategies. This study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence, risk factors of DENV infection and the circulating serotypes within Nigeria from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2020. Materials and methods: Twenty-one studies out of 2,215 available articles were eligible and included for this systematic review. Relevant articles were searched, screened and included in this study according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. The risk of bias in primary studies was assessed by Cochrane's method. Heterogeneity of pooled prevalence was calculated using the chi-square test on Cochrane's Q statistic, which was quantified by I-square values. The random-effects analyses of proportions were used to determine the pooled prevalence of DENV antibodies, antigen and RNA from eligible studies. Results: Of these, 3 studies reported co-circulation of all the 4 serotypes, while 2 separately reported co-circulation of DENV-1 &2 and DENV-1 to -3. All the antibody-based studies had significantly high heterogeneity (I2 >90%, P 0.05). The pooled prevalence of DENV IgM, IgG, RNA, NS1 and neutralizing antibodies were 16.8%, 34.7%, 7.7%, 7.7% and 0.7%, respectively. Southeast Nigeria had the highest pooled DENV-IgG seropositivity, 77.1%. Marital status, gender, educational level and occupation status, the proximity of residence to refuse dumpsite, frequent use of trousers and long sleeve shirts were significantly associated with DENV IgG seropositivity (P <0.05). Conclusion: Based on these findings, it can be inferred that Nigeria is hyperendemic for Dengue fever and needs concerted efforts to control its spread within and outside the country