Simulation of cyclone gonu using the advanced hurricane WRF: sensitivity to domain coverage, nesting, resolution and starting time

Domain design, different starting times and applying internal fixed and moving domains within the coarser simulation domain similar to different physical options can play important roles in the results of numerical models in order prediction of tropical cyclones. In this study, Gonu Tropical Cyclone (2007) that it was formed in the northern Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea) and Advanced Hurricane WRF Model (AHW) have been selected to demonstrate this sensitivity. Initial and boundary conditions, and the best track data in order to comparison was received from NCEP Final Analyses (FNL) data and the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department), respectively. The simulation results in domain design sensitivity showed, the domain that was extended more to the east and was included a lower coverage of the Persian Gulf had more accuracy in predicting of track and the best performance and also had an acceptable performance in predicting of hurricane intensity at the time to reach the coast of Oman and Iran. Although this domain in predicting the intensity peak of cyclone is better than other domain designs, but has weaker track than the available reality (IMD). Then, internal fixed and moving domains to separate within this domain is considered and the results showed that despite some improvement in simulated intensity error, there was a reduction of simulated cyclone track. Generally, the results showed that internal fixed domain rather than internal moving domain has the better performance in selected cases. Thereafter, different starting times were tested and the results showed that the simulation starting time, 48 to 60 hours before maximum intensity of storm or in other words, when the central pressure of system shows about 1000 hPa has the better performance in simulation of cyclone track and intensity. Finally, the best configuration is tested for Phet tropical cyclone (2010) that was formed in the same area. The results of this testing were satisfactory

Gracilaria corticata cultivation in fiberglass tanks and Agar extraction

In order to culture the G. corticata for further agar extraction, during one year study (2001), 3 treatments with 3 different densities of 500, 1000 and 2000 g/m^2 and 3 replicates were cultured in fiberglass tanks. During the culture period the parameters of temperature, pH and salinity were measured and 30-40 percent of water was exchanged once every two days. The aeration activity was constantly done and also 0.5g urea added into the water after exchanging the water. The biometric measurement of algae was carried out every week and ultimately end of the period culture, the daily growth and net production (wet weight) was calculated in proportion to g/m2. Also, amount of extracted agar (dry weight) estimated seasonally. In winter, the daily growth (%), net production and agar extracted (%) were estimated 1.46±0.11, 11.5±3.57 and 17.5%, in which these figures for three other seasons of spring, summer and autumn were: 3.74±0.31, 38.3±5.4, 19.3 and 1.5±0.28, 12.43±3.3, 14% and 3.11±0.04, 26.9±0.61 and 15%, respectively. Some epiphytes and grazers were recognized in algae cultivation tanks such as Navicula, Nitzschia, Oscillatoria, Peridinium, Chaetoceros, Enteromorpha, Ulva, and Isopoda, Nemertine and Nereis. Two seasons of spring and autumn showed the best daily growth and net production, and also the 500 g/m^2 treatment was recognized the best culture treatment

An affordable, quality-assured community-based system for high-resolution entomological surveillance of vector mosquitoes that reflects human malaria infection risk patterns.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: More sensitive and scalable entomological surveillance tools are required to monitor low levels of transmission that are increasingly common across the tropics, particularly where vector control has been successful. A large-scale larviciding programme in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania is supported by a community-based (CB) system for trapping adult mosquito densities to monitor programme performance. Methodology An intensive and extensive CB system for routine, longitudinal, programmatic surveillance of malaria vectors and other mosquitoes using the Ifakara Tent Trap (ITT-C) was developed in Urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and validated by comparison with quality assurance (QA) surveys using either ITT-C or human landing catches (HLC), as well as a cross-sectional survey of malaria parasite prevalence in the same housing compounds. RESULTS: Community-based ITT-C had much lower sensitivity per person-night of sampling than HLC (Relative Rate (RR) [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.079 [0.051, 0.121], P < 0.001 for Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 0.153 [0.137, 0.171], P < 0.001 for Culicines) but only moderately differed from QA surveys with the same trap (0.536 [0.406,0.617], P = 0.001 and 0.747 [0.677,0.824], P < 0.001, for An. gambiae or Culex respectively). Despite the poor sensitivity of the ITT per night of sampling, when CB-ITT was compared with QA-HLC, it proved at least comparably sensitive in absolute terms (171 versus 169 primary vectors caught) and cost-effective (153US$versus 187US$ per An. gambiae caught) because it allowed more spatially extensive and temporally intensive sampling (4284 versus 335 trap nights distributed over 615 versus 240 locations with a mean number of samples per year of 143 versus 141). Despite the very low vectors densities (Annual estimate of about 170 An gambiae s.l bites per person per year), CB-ITT was the only entomological predictor of parasite infection risk (Odds Ratio [95% CI] = 4.43[3.027,7. 454] per An. gambiae or Anopheles funestus caught per night, P =0.0373). Discussion and conclusion CB trapping approaches could be improved with more sensitive traps, but already offer a practical, safe and affordable system for routine programmatic mosquito surveillance and clusters could be distributed across entire countries by adapting the sample submission and quality assurance procedures accordingly

Surveillance of vector populations and malaria transmission during the 2009/10 El Niño event in the western Kenya highlands: opportunities for early detection of malaria hyper-transmission

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Vector control in the highlands of western Kenya has resulted in a significant reduction of malaria transmission and a change in the vectorial system. Climate variability as a result of events such as El Niño increases the highlands suitability for malaria transmission. Surveillance and monitoring is an important component of early transmission risk identification and management. However, below certain disease transmission thresholds, traditional tools for surveillance such as entomological inoculation rates may become insensitive. A rapid diagnostic kit comprising <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>circumsporozoite surface protein and merozoite surface protein antibodies in humans was tested for early detection of transmission surges in the western Kenya highlands during an El Niño event (October 2009-February 2010).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Indoor resting female adult malaria vectors were collected in western Kenya highlands in four selected villages categorized into two valley systems, the U-shaped (Iguhu and Emutete) and the V-shaped valleys (Marani and Fort Ternan) for eight months. Members of the <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>complex were identified by PCR. Blood samples were collected from children 6-15 years old and exposure to malaria was tested using a circum-sporozoite protein and merozoite surface protein immunchromatographic rapid diagnostic test kit. Sporozoite ELISA was conducted to detect circum-sporozoite protein, later used for estimation of entomological inoculation rates.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the four villages studied, an upsurge in antibody levels was first observed in October 2009. <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>sporozoites were then first observed in December 2009 at Iguhu village and February 2010 at Emutete. Despite the upsurge in Marani and Fort Ternan no sporozoites were detected throughout the eight month study period. The antibody-based assay had much earlier transmission detection ability than the sporozoite-based assay. The proportion of <it>An. arabiensis </it>among <it>An. gambiae s.l</it>. ranged from 2.9-66.7% indicating a rearrangement of the sibling species of the <it>An. gambiae s.l </it>complex. This is possibly an adaptation to insecticide interventions and climate change.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The changing malaria transmission rates in the western Kenya highlands will lead to more unstable transmission, decreased immunity and a high vulnerability to epidemics unless surveillance tools are improved and effective vector control is sustained.</p

Vector control in a malaria epidemic occurring within a complex emergency situation in Burundi: a case study

BACKGROUND: African highlands often suffer of devastating malaria epidemics, sometimes in conjunction with complex emergencies, making their control even more difficult. In 2000, Burundian highlands experienced a large malaria outbreak at a time of civil unrest, constant insecurity and nutritional emergency. Because of suspected high resistance to the first and second line treatments, the provincial health authority and Médecins Sans Frontières (Belgium) decided to implement vector control activities in an attempt to curtail the epidemic. There are few reported interventions of this type to control malaria epidemics in complex emergency contexts. Here, decisions and actions taken to control this epidemic, their impact and the lessons learned from this experience are reported. CASE DESCRIPTION: Twenty nine hills (administrative areas) were selected in collaboration with the provincial health authorities for the vector control interventions combining indoor residual spraying with deltamethrin and insecticide-treated nets. Impact was evaluated by entomological and parasitological surveys. Almost all houses (99%) were sprayed and nets use varied between 48% and 63%. Anopheles indoor resting density was significantly lower in treated as compared to untreated hills, the latter taken as controls. Despite this impact on the vector, malaria prevalence was not significantly lower in treated hills except for people sleeping under a net. DISCUSSION: Indoor spraying was feasible and resulted in high coverage despite being a logistically complex intervention in the Burundian context (scattered houses and emergency situation). However, it had little impact on the prevalence of malaria infection, possibly because it was implemented after the epidemic's peak. Nevertheless, after this outbreak the Ministry of Health improved the surveillance system, changed its policy with introduction of effective drugs and implementation of vector control to prevent new malaria epidemics. CONCLUSION: In the absence of effective drugs and sufficient preparedness, present study failed to demonstrate any impact of vector control activities upon the course of a short-duration malaria epidemic. However, the experience gained lead to increased preparedness and demonstrated the feasibility of vector control measures in this specific context

The Early Stage of Bacterial Genome-Reductive Evolution in the Host

The equine-associated obligate pathogen Burkholderia mallei was developed by reductive evolution involving a substantial portion of the genome from Burkholderia pseudomallei, a free-living opportunistic pathogen. With its short history of divergence (∼3.5 myr), B. mallei provides an excellent resource to study the early steps in bacterial genome reductive evolution in the host. By examining 20 genomes of B. mallei and B. pseudomallei, we found that stepwise massive expansion of IS (insertion sequence) elements ISBma1, ISBma2, and IS407A occurred during the evolution of B. mallei. Each element proliferated through the sites where its target selection preference was met. Then, ISBma1 and ISBma2 contributed to the further spread of IS407A by providing secondary insertion sites. This spread increased genomic deletions and rearrangements, which were predominantly mediated by IS407A. There were also nucleotide-level disruptions in a large number of genes. However, no significant signs of erosion were yet noted in these genes. Intriguingly, all these genomic modifications did not seriously alter the gene expression patterns inherited from B. pseudomallei. This efficient and elaborate genomic transition was enabled largely through the formation of the highly flexible IS-blended genome and the guidance by selective forces in the host. The detailed IS intervention, unveiled for the first time in this study, may represent the key component of a general mechanism for early bacterial evolution in the host

Evaluation of two methods of estimating larval habitat productivity in western Kenya highlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria vector intervention and control programs require reliable and accurate information about vector abundance and their seasonal distribution. The availability of reliable information on the spatial and temporal productivity of larval vector habitats can improve targeting of larval control interventions and our understanding of local malaria transmission and epidemics. The main objective of this study was to evaluate two methods of estimating larval habitat productivity in the western Kenyan highlands, the aerial sampler and the emergence trap.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was conducted during the dry and rainy seasons in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Aerial samplers and emergence traps were set up for sixty days in each season in three habitat types: drainage ditches, natural swamps, and abandoned goldmines. Aerial samplers and emergence traps were set up in eleven places in each habitat type. The success of each in estimating habitat productivity was assessed according to method, habitat type, and season. The effect of other factors including algae cover, grass cover, habitat depth and width, and habitat water volume on species productivity was analysed using stepwise logistic regression</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Habitat productivity estimates obtained by the two sampling methods differed significantly for all species except for <it>An</it>. <it>implexus</it>. For for <it>An</it>. <it>gambiae </it>s.l. and <it>An</it>. <it>funestus</it>, aerial samplers performed better, 21.5 and 14.6 folds, than emergence trap respectively, while the emergence trap was shown to be more efficient for culicine species. Seasonality had a significant influence on the productivity of all species monitored. Dry season was most productive season. Overall, drainage ditches had significantly higher productivity in all seasons compared to other habitat types. Algae cover, debris, chlorophyll-a, and habitat depth and size had significant influence with respect to species.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings suggest that the aerial sampler is the better of the two methods for estimating the productivity of <it>An</it>. <it>gambiae </it>s.l. and <it>An</it>. <it>funestus </it>in the western Kenya highlands and possibly other malaria endemic parts of Africa. This method has proven to be a useful tool for monitoring malaria vector populations and for control program design, and provides useful means for determining the most suitable sites for targeted interventions.</p