A simulation study of the robustness of prediction intervals for an independent observation obtained from a random sample from an assumed location-scale family of distributions

Master of ScienceDepartment of StatisticsPaul I. NelsonSuppose that based on data consisting of independent repetitions of an experiment a researcher wants to predict the outcome of the next independent outcome of the experiment. The researcher models the data as being realizations of independent, identically distributed random variables { Xi, i=1,2,..n} having density f() and the next outcome as the value of an independent random variable Y , also having density f() . We assume that the density f() lies in one of three location-scale families: standard normal (symmetric); Cauchy (symmetric, heavy-tailed); extreme value (asymmetric.). The researcher does not know the values of the location and scale parameters. For f() = f0() lying in one of these families, an exact prediction interval for Y can be constructed using equivariant estimators of the location and scale parameters to form a pivotal quantity based on { Xi, i=1,2,..n} and Y. This report investigates via a simulation study the performance of these prediction intervals in terms of coverage rate and length when the assumption that f() = f0() is correct and when it is not. The simulation results indicate that prediction intervals based on the assumption of normality perform quite well with normal and extreme value data and reasonably well with Cauchy data when the sample sizes are large. The heavy tailed Cauchy assumption only leads to prediction intervals that perform well with Cauchy data and is not robust when the data are normal and extreme value. Similarly, the asymmetric extreme value model leads to prediction intervals that only perform well with extreme value data. Overall, this study indicates robustness with respect to a mismatch between the assumed and actual distributions in some cases and a lack of robustness in others

Verbal Component of Advertisement and the Problem of its Perception

The article touches upon the problem of impact the proper use of the language of advertising can have on people. Since today, advertisement has a significant impact on consumer choice of a customer. In the first part of this article we analyze such theoretical issues as stylistics of advertising text, its phonetic, syntactic and lexical aspects, means of language manipulation and readability index. Comparative analysis of linguistic peculiarities of the advertisement on the example of advertising texts of famous sport brands is shown in the second part. The main conclusion is that in spite of the fact that readability index of the text can be rather high, the level of its attractiveness to the public also depends on other factors that include non-verbal component of the message, personal characteristics of addressee, etc. The main idea of this article can be valuable for the world of psycholinguistics, lexicology and modern communication because it describes all the important linguistic peculiarities that can be used in the modern language of advertising

Verbal Component of Advertisement and the Problem of its Perception

The article touches upon the problem of impact the proper use of the language of advertising can have on people. Since today, advertisement has a significant impact on consumer choice of a customer. In the first part of this article we analyze such theoretical issues as stylistics of advertising text, its phonetic, syntactic and lexical aspects, means of language manipulation and readability index. Comparative analysis of linguistic peculiarities of the advertisement on the example of advertising texts of famous sport brands is shown in the second part. The main conclusion is that in spite of the fact that readability index of the text can be rather high, the level of its attractiveness to the public also depends on other factors that include non-verbal component of the message, personal characteristics of addressee, etc. The main idea of this article can be valuable for the world of psycholinguistics, lexicology and modern communication because it describes all the important linguistic peculiarities that can be used in the modern language of advertising

Cultural consumption as a parameter of the quality of life in a Russian megapolis

The article presents the results of sociological studies of the level of subjective well-being of residents of the Russian metropolis (using the example of Nizhny Novgorod). The indicator of the level of well-being is one of the important parameters that city authorities and architects are now paying attention to when designing urban space. The purpose of the article is to determine how the residents of the metropolis assess the accessibility (physical, financial, etc.) of cultural institutions and products. Quantitative research methods are used to achieve this goal: surveys were conducted in which several thousand Nizhny Novgorod residents took part. The authors present a comparative analysis of the estimates of citizens with an interval of 10 years. The results of the analysis give an idea that the level of well-being in Russian megacities is changing slowly. The choice of Nizhny Novgorod is not accidental. The geographical and economic position of Nizhny Novgorod and the ethnocultural composition of the region make it possible to extrapolate the results of the study of a particular city to the major cities of Central Russia. Another significant factor in choosing the city was the fact that since 2021 Nizhny Novgorod has acquired the status of capitals – the “capital of sunsets”, “youth capital”, “cultural capital”. It is quite natural to ask how the status of the “capital” influenced the subjective indicators of satisfaction with the quality of life. The presented data help to get an idea of the specifics of cultural consumption of a resident of a modern Russian megalopolis, as well as the degree of his involvement in cultural production. The results of the study are also of practical importance in the design and modernization of urban space, as well as the optimization of social policy of the state

The birth of a healthy child in a married couple with a history of multiple unsuccessful attempts at ART by selecting sperm on oocyte-cumulus complexes. Case report

In male infertility, couples must use assisted reproductive technologies with the intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) technique. A significant disadvantage of ICSI is bypassing natural selection barriers since selective processes in the female reproductive tract are replaced by the choice of an embryologist based on sperm motility and morphological criteria. Various selection methods are being actively studied, bringing fertilization by ICSI closer to physiological, ensuring the selection of sperm with high DNA quality and good potential for fertilization. The article presents a clinical case of the birth of a healthy child in a married couple with severe male infertility and many ineffective attempts at assisted reproductive technologies using the method of sperm selection on oocyte-cumulus complexes. The child is physically healthy and develops according to age

Airborne chemical pollution and children’s asthma incidence rate in Minsk

Introduction: Asthma, as a multifactorial disease is closely connected with air pollution. Discovering interconnection between concentrations of air pollutants and asthma incidence rate among children provides information for developing effective measures to reduce air pollution and improve population health. Study purpose was to carry out hygienic analysis of the influence of atmospheric air quality on the incidence rate of bronchial asthma and the asthmatic status of children in Minsk in 2009-2018. Methods: During 2019 retrospective health cohort study was conducted, data from stationary air quality monitoring posts were collected. Correlation analysis was conducted by determining the Pearson rank correlation coefficient. Results: Strong evidence was found for concentrations of particulate matter (dust / aerosol undifferentiated in composition), lead, ammonia and nitrogen dioxide making a significant contribution to the formation of elevated asthma and asthmatic status morbidity. The age group of risk are children under the age of 9 years (inclusive). Conclusions: Patterns obtained in this study are confirmed by the results of other studies (Wang et al. 2017; Orellano et al. 2017). Nevertheless, the main limitations in study are associated with the heterogeneity of the distribution of air quality monitoring posts and the changing list of controlled pollutants for the analyzed period

A randomised trial of oral versus intravenous opioids for treatment of pain after cardiac surgery

Background: Cardiac surgery and sternotomy are procedures accompanied by substantial postoperative pain which is challenging to treat. In general, intravenous (IV) opioids are used in the immediate postoperative phase, followed by oral opioids. Oral opioids are easier to use and generally less expensive. Our goal was thus to determine whether a new opioid preparation provides adequate analgesia after sternotomy. In particular, we tested the primary hypothesis that total opioid use (in morphine equivalents) is not greater with oral opioid compared with patient-controlled IV morphine. Our secondary hypothesis was that analgesic efficacy is similar with oral and IV opioids. Methods: A total of 51 patients having elective cardiac surgery were enrolled in this study. After rapid postoperative respiratory weaning, the patients were randomised into one of two groups receiving different types of analgesia: oral Targin (a combination of oxycodone-hydrochloride and the opioid antagonist naloxone hydrochloride-dihydrate) or patient-controlled IV morphine. Pain score (visual analogue scale), sedation (Ramsey score), respiratory rate and side effects were assessed at 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11h after surgery, and every 6h throughout the third postoperative evening. Results: The total opioid dose in morphine equivalent doses was significantly lower with oral opioid than with IV morphine (adjusted geometric means [95% confidence interval]: 34 [29; 38] vs. 69 [61; 78] mg, respectively). Pain scores were similar in each group. Conclusions: Analgesic quality was comparable with oral and IV opioids, suggesting that postoperative pain even after very painful procedures can be sufficiently managed with oral opioids

Combination of conservative and surgical methods in the treatment of giant lymphedema of the scrotum: A case report

ObjectiveGenital lymphedema is a severe, disabling condition associated with a malfunction of the lymphatic system. Primary lymphedema of the scrotum is a variant of congenital dysplasia of lymphatic vessels. Secondary genital lymphedema is much more common and can be caused by parasitic invasion (filariasis) or damage to the lymphatic system during the treatment of cancer (radiation therapy, lymphadenectomy). Healthcare providers are frequently unable to detect and treat this illness successfully in ordinary clinical practice. This paper uses the case of a patient with stage 3 secondary lymphedema (unknown genesis) of both lower extremities and lymphedema of the scrotum, complicated by recurrent erysipelas, a history of lymphorrhoea, impaired skin trophic and multiple papillomatosis, to demonstrate the efficacy of a combination of conservative and surgical methods in the treatment of giant lymphedema of the scrotum.MethodsIn the treatment, the combination of decongestant physical therapy (CDPT, CDT) according to M. Földi was used at pre-surgery and post-surgery stages, combined with a reconstructive operation, including the removal of the affected tissues of the urogenital region, phalloplasty, and scrotoplasty with rotational skin flaps.ResultsA decrease in the circumference of the lowest extremities in the lower leg area by 68 cm on the right and by 69 cm on the left was achieved by conservative treatment. Due to the combination of conservative and surgical treatment, the patient's body weight decreased by 69.4 kg, and the scrotum decreased by 63 cm. Subsequently, the patient fully recovered his sexual function.ConclusionA combination of complex decongestive physical therapy and surgery is necessary for patients with advanced genital edema. The isolated use of surgical or conservative treatment does not provide a sufficient improvement in the patient's quality of life. Modern plastic surgery technologies enable patients to achieve complete functional and cosmetic recovery, while proper selection and usage of compression hosiery help preserve and improve the outcomes acquired following treatment

Brachial Arterial Pressure Monitoring during Cardiac Surgery Rarely Causes Complications

BACKGROUND: Brachial arterial catheters better estimate aortic pressure than radial arterial catheters but are used infrequently because complications in a major artery without collateral flow are potentially serious. However, the extent to which brachial artery cannulation promotes complications remains unknown. The authors thus evaluated a large cohort of cardiac surgical patients to estimate the incidence of related serious complications. METHODS: The institutional Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac Surgery Database and Perioperative Health Documentation System Registry of the Cleveland Clinic were used to identify patients who had brachial artery cannulation between 2007 and 2015. Complications within 6 months after surgery were identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnostic and procedural codes, Current Procedural Terminology procedure codes, and Society of Thoracic Surgeons variables. The authors reviewed electronic medical records to confirm that putative complications were related plausibly to brachial arterial catheterization. Complications were categorized as (1) vascular, (2) peripheral nerve injury, or (3) infection. The authors evaluated associations between brachial arterial complications and patient comorbidities and between complications and in-hospital mortality and duration of hospitalization. RESULTS: Among 21,597 qualifying patients, 777 had vascular or nerve injuries or local infections, but only 41 (incidence 0.19% [95% CI, 0.14 to 0.26%]) were potentially consequent to brachial arterial cannulation. Vascular complications occurred in 33 patients (0.15% [0.10 to 0.23%]). Definitely or possibly related infection occurred in 8 (0.04% [0.02 to 0.08%]) patients. There were no plausibly related neurologic complications. Peripheral arterial disease was associated with increased risk of complications. Brachial catheter complications were associated with prolonged hospitalization and in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Brachial artery cannulation for hemodynamic monitoring during cardiac surgery rarely causes complications