Prediction of the demand for drinking water in a context of humanitarian crisis. Rharous case (Mali).

La calidad de gestión del abastecimiento urbano de agua muy dependiente de la capacidad para predecir la demanda. De dicha predicción depende conseguir objetivos fundamentales, como la obtención de un suministro continuado con la presión y calidad de servicio adecuadas. En este sentido, durante décadas se han ido proponiendo diferentes métodos para la predicción de la demanda: desde los clásicos modelos ARIMA, hasta los actuales métodos de Aprendizaje Automático. En este trabajo se aplican método de predicción de la demanda de agua potable a un contexto de crisis humanitario generado por el conflicto, a partir de series de consumos de agua y de las variables demográficas y climáticas. Tras aplicar diversos modelos, se optó por uno que combina modelos de regresión y modelos de ARIMA. La componente estacional y la tendencia contribuyen respectivamente a un 65% y 13% de la variabilidad de la demanda. Otras variaciones periódicas (semanales y mensuales) socioculturales, suponen un 2%. El error del modelo de regresión que predice la componente estacional, la parte no explicada de la predicción realizada por los modelos ARIMA es aproximadamente el 3.5% de la demanda total. Con todos estos componentes se dispone de un modelo de predicción capaz de estimar con bastante fiabilidad, la demanda total, a partir del tamaño de la población y del clima y del día del mes.The quality of urban water supply management is highly dependent on the ability to predict demand. The achievement of fundamental objectives, such as obtaining a continuous supply with adequate pressure and quality of service, depends on this prediction. In this sense, for decades different methods have been proposed for the prediction of demand: from the classic ARIMA models to the current methods of Automatic Learning. In this work, a method of predicting the demand for drinking water is applied to a context of humanitarian crisis generated by the conflict, based on series of water consumption and demographic and climatic variables. After applying different models, one was chosen that combines regression models and ARIMA models. The seasonal component and the trend contribute respectively to 65% and 13% of the variability of demand. Other sociocultural periodic (weekly and monthly) variations account for 2%. The error of the regression model predicted by the seasonal component. The unexplained part of the prediction made by the ARIMA models is approximately 3.5% of total demand. With all these components, a prediction model is available that is capable to estimate total demand fairly reliably, based on the size of the population and the climate and the day of the month.Máster Universitario en Hidrología y Gestión de Recursos Hídrico

IJMSSC

DEVS is a sound Modeling and Simulation (M&S) framework that describes a model in a modular and hierarchical way. It comes along with an abstract simulation algorithm which defines its operational semantics. Many variants of such an algorithm have been proposed by DEVS researchers. Yet, the proper interpretation and analysis of the computational complexity of such approaches have not been systematically addressed and defined. As systems become larger and more complex, the efficiency of the DEVS simulation algorithms in terms of time complexity measure becomes a major issue. Therefore, it is necessary to devise a method for computing this complexity. This paper proposes a generic method to address such an issue, taking advantage of the recursion embedded in the triggered-by-message principle of the DEVS simulation protocol. The applicability of the method is shown through the complexity analysis of various DEVS simulation algorithms

Responding to the changing WASH needs in Mali

The political unrest that started in Mali on the 21st of March 2012 has had a significant impact on access to safe water and sanitation for an estimated 1.9 million people. Like most development or non-humanitarian organisations, WaterAid Mali was forced to stop their water and sanitation interventions in northern target communities due to insecurity. In the south, water, sanitation and hygiene needs changed quickly, as a result of the large number of people migrating from the north. WaterAid Mali has adapted to these changes through reallocating resources, implementing new activities and internal capacity building. This paper will discuss the experiences of WaterAid Mali as well as the lessons learnt

Antiretroviral-induced adverse drug reactions in HIV-infected patients in Mali: a resource-limited setting experience

Background: There are few reports in the literature from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regarding antiretroviral-induced adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is now widely available in SSA, and ADRs during HIV infection are also frequent. In this study, we reported the frequency and risk factors of ART-induced ADRs in a Malian population.Methods: This prospective cohort study was performed in the HIV Care and Counseling Centre (CESAC) of Mali from 2011 to 2012. Adult patients infected with HIV and who had recently started ART were included and followed-up clinically Were included in this study, adult patients living with HIV and had recently started ART who were followed up for at least 6 months to determine the incidence of ADRs using Naranjo’s classification scale.Results: During this study, 357 (42.3%) patients presented ADRs (40.1% of our patients (n=338) experienced at least one ADR, and 2.2% (n=19) experienced at least two ADRs). The prevalence of ADRs by organ system was: 45.9% neurological (n=164); 29.4% metabolic (blood chemistry) (n=105); 15.4% hematological (n=55). High probable rate of ADR was observed as indicated by the Naranjo score in 83.7% of the cases. Zidovudine (AZT) and stavudine (d4T) use was identified as a risk factor for either anaemia or peripheral neuropathy whereas nevirapine (NVP) and female gender were risk factors for skin reactions. Patients with advance disease had the highest rate of ADRs compared to the others.Conclusions: Based on the Naranjo probability scale, our data show that ADRs such as peripheral neuropathy and anemia are very frequent. These ADR was linked to AZT and D4T. Our findings highlight the need for active monitoring, continuous pharmacovigilance of ART and change of some ART drug in this population

Best-bet integrated strategies for containing drug-resistant trypanosomes in cattle

Background African animal trypanosomosis is a major constraint to the rearing of productive livestock in the sub-humid Sudan-Sahel zone of West Africa where cotton is grown. Trypanosomosis is mainly controlled using trypanocidal drugs, but the effective use of drugs is threatened by the development of widespread resistance. This study tested integrated best-bet strategies for containment and/ or reversal of trypanocide resistance in villages in south-east Mali where resistance has been reported. Methods Four sentinel villages each from an intervention area (along the road from Mali to Burkina Faso) and a control area (along the road from Mali to Côte d’Ivoire) were selected for the study. Tsetse control was based on deltamethrin-treated stationary attractive devices and targeted cattle spraying between March 2008 and November 2009. Trypanosome-positive cattle were selectively treated with 3.5 mg/kg diminazene aceturate. Strategic helminth control using 10 mg/kg albendazole was also undertaken. During the intervention, tsetse densities along drainage lines, trypanosome infections and faecal egg counts in risk cattle (3 to 12 months of age) were monitored. Results Catch reductions of 66.5 % in Glossina palpalis gambiensis and 90 % in G. tachinoides were observed in the intervention area. Trypanosome prevalence was significantly (p < 0.05) lower in the intervention area (2.3 %; 1.3-3.6 %) compared to the control area (17.3 %; 14.8-20.1 %). Albendazole treatment resulted in a faecal egg count reduction of 55.6 % and reduced trypanosome infection risk (2.9 times lower than in the placebo group) although not significantly (p > 0.05). Further studies are required before confirming the existence of albendazole resistant strongyles in the study area. Conclusion Integration of best-bet strategies in areas of multiple drug- resistance is expected to reduce trypanosome infection risk thus contributing to containment of trypanocidal drug resistance. Integrated best-bet strategies could therefore be considered a viable trypanosomosis control option especially in areas where multiple drug-resistance has been reported

Concurrent declines in malaria incidence among children under and over five years of age in Koutiala, Mali: time series analysis of seasonal malaria chemoprevention from 2012-2022

In 2012, the World Health Organization recommended seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) for children 3–59 months old in areas of highly seasonal malaria transmission. Long-term impact of SMC on malaria incidence is unknown. In Koutiala health district, a random sample of 10 villages were selected surrounding health facilities with 1:3 urban/rural ratio. Cases of uncomplicated and complicated malaria, confirmed by rapid diagnostic test or microscopy, were documented monthly at facilities prior to SMC (2011) and each year of SMC (2012-2022). We used Poisson regression with robust standard errors adjusting for repeated measurements within villages to estimate rates in 2011 and change over time (with interaction terms to compare differences in rates over time across groups as applicable), assuming approximately linear trends of annual rates over time. Overall, 1429 village-level observations were included. In 2011, estimated confirmed uncomplicated malaria was 60 cases (95%CI 16, 218) and 8 cases (95%CI 4, 14)/1000 population among < 5-year olds and ≥ 5-year olds, respectively. From 2012 to 2022, the confirmed uncomplicated incidence among < 5 year-olds declined by 8 (95%CI -2, 18) cases/1000 pop, and among ≥ 5-year olds by 3 (95%CI -4, 8) cases/1000 pop annually, a difference of 5 cases (95%CI 0,11)/1000 pop (p=0.060). In the general population, confirmed uncomplicated and confirmed complicated malaria declined by 6 cases (95%CI -3, 15, p=0.203) and 4 cases (95%CI -1, 10, p=0.128)/1000 pop annually, respectively. There was little to no evidence of declining rates in rural and urban areas (interaction p=0.083 and p=0.589 for cum and ccm, respectively). There was no evidence of difference in rates of confirmed uncomplicated and confirmed complicated cases between 2011-2022 overall (interaction p=0.617), among < 5-year olds (interaction p=0.732), nor ≥ 5-year olds (interaction p=0.850). SMC was associated with reduced incidence of confirmed uncomplicated and complicated cases among children < 5-year olds over 10-year of SMC in Koutiala, Mali. Molecular surveillance is urgently needed to confirm this apparent trend

Présentation de trois études d’approvisionnement en énergie pour le Mali de 2017 à 2040

Au Mali, les énergies issues des combustibles ligneux (78%) et des produits pétroliers importés (17%) couvrent l’essentiel des besoins en énergie pour les ménages, les industries et le secteur tertiaire. Le Mali est un pays sahélien et non producteur de pétrole. L’utilisation de ce type de ressources énergétiques a un impact négatif sur l’économie en raison des importations et de l’utilisation de la couverture végétale comme source de combustible ligneuse.Afin de réduire l’utilisation du bois, et des produits pétroliers dans la consommation d’énergie, et ainsi aider les décideurs Maliens, nous présentons trois scénarios d’approvisionnement dans ce travail. Le premier est un scénario de base, qui présente la situation actuelle et sert de référence (scénario 1), le second scénario (scénario 2) postule que l’utilisation des ressources du bois-énergie (bois et charbon de bois) et des produits pétroliers dans la production d’électricité est maintenue et le troisième scénario (scénario 3) suppose une diminution de l’utilisation desproduits pétroliers dans la production d’électricité tout en maintenant l’utilisation du bois grâce à l’augmentation de l’usage des énergies renouvelables.Dans cet article nous présentons une estimation de la consommation d’énergiefinale de 2017 à 2040 basée sur le taux de progression de chaque source d’énergie (bois-énergie, produits pétroliers et électricité). Les trois scénarios envisagés permettent d’augmenter la production d’électricité dans le bilan énergétique. Dans les scénarios 2et 3, l’augmentation de la production de biomasse de type déchets et bioéthanol permettrait de diminuer la consommation du bois et de charbon de bois comme source d’énergie et aussi de réduire l’utilisation des produits pétroliers notamment dans la production d’électricité. Ainsi, le développement de ses sources d’énergie permettrait au Mali de mettre en valeur ses ressources énergétiques locales (résidus, biocarburants, déchets, solaire) et d’être de plus en plus indépendant vis-à-vis des importations de produits pétroliers. Ce développement vertueux permettrait aussi de préserver l’environnement et plus particulièrement la végétation au Mali