The Earldom of Orkney, the Duchy of Schleswig and the Kalmar Union in 1434

In August 1434, Erik VII, king of Denmark, Norway and Sweden, confirmed William Sinclair as earl of Orkney, thus ending a decade-long dispute over the hereditary nature of that island fief. Although surviving sources pertaining to Orkney tell us little about Erik VII’s motives, historians have traditionally pointed to circumstances in and around the isles to explain the king’s acknowledgement of William’s claims. In this article, it is argued that the events must be interpreted in light of a concurrent dispute over counts of Holstein’s hereditary claims to the duchy of Schleswig, which were vigorously denied by Erik VII. It can be concluded that the latter dispute influenced the debate over Orkney by making the hereditary enfeoffment of William Sinclair a strategic impossibility for Erik VII, who could not acknowledge one claim without opening the door for another. The king’s acquiescence of William’s claim in 1434, we contend, reflected changing conditions in Schleswig, where the king was forced to recognize the counts’ hereditary rights. The contribution offers a new take on Orkney’s late-medieval development and encourages that island principality’s inclusion in pan-Scandinavian events

Prediction of cardiac worsening through to cardiogenic shock in patients with acute heart failure

Aims: Acute heart failure (AHF) can result in worsening of heart failure (WHF), cardiogenic shock (CS), or death. Risk factors for these adverse outcomes are not well characterized. This study aimed to identify predictors for WHF or new‐onset CS in patients hospitalized for AHF. Methods and results: Prospective cohort study enrolling consecutive patients with AHF admitted to a large tertiary care centre with follow‐up until death or discharge. WHF was defined by the RELAX‐AHF‐2 criteria. CS was defined as SCAI stages B–E. Potential predictors were assessed by fitting logistic regression models adjusted for age and sex. N = 233 patients were enrolled, median age was 78 years, and 80 were women (35.9%). Ischaemic cardiomyopathy was present in 82 patients (40.8%). Overall, 96 (44.2%) developed WHF and 18 (9.7%) CS. In‐hospital death (8/223, 3.6%) was related to both events (WHF: OR 6.64, 95% CI 1.21–36.55, P = 0.03; CS: OR 38.27, 95% CI 6.32–231.81, P < 0.001). Chronic kidney disease (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.25–3.93, P = 0.007), logarithmized serum creatinine (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.51–5.82, P = 0.002), cystatin c (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.27–2.77, P = 0.002), tricuspid valve regurgitation (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.11–3.94, P = 0.023) and logarithmized pro‐adrenomedullin (OR 3.01, 95% CI 1.75–5.38, P < 0.001) were significant predictors of WHF. Chronic kidney disease (OR 3.17, 95% CI 1.16–9.58, P = 0.03), cystatin c (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.00–3.53, P = 0.045), logarithmized pro‐adrenomedullin (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.19–7.19, P = 0.019), and tricuspid valve regurgitation (OR 10.44, 95% CI 2.61–70.00, P = 0.003) were significantly with new‐onset CS. Conclusions: Half of patients admitted with AHF experience WHF or new‐onset CS. Chronic kidney disease, tricuspid valve regurgitation, and elevated pro‐adrenomedullin concentrations predict these events. They could potentially serve as early warning signs for further deterioration in AHF patients

A new approach for the detection of obesity-related airway obstruction in lung-healthy individuals

BACKGROUND Subjects with obesity show an increased prevalence of airway obstruction but it is not clear in each case whether this reflects genuine lung disease. Via intentional increase in end-expiratory lung volume we studied the detection of obesity-induced airway obstruction in lung-healthy obese subjects. METHODS The primary study population comprised 66 lung-healthy obese subjects and 23 normal weight subjects. Measurements were performed in a body plethysmograph allowing for recording and quantification of breathing loops in terms of specific airway resistance at both normal and intentionally elevated end-expiratory lung volume. The change in volume was documented by a shutter maneuver. RESULTS The voluntary increase of lung volume led to a significant reduction of expiratory airway resistance in 11 of the 66 obese subjects. This reduction could be quantified by a change of total expiratory resistance (sRtEX) of >1 kPa*s but was also clearly visible in the breathing loops. sRtEX showed the largest change among all resistance parameters. The loops of normal weight subjects remained virtually unaffected by the change in lung volume. Moreover, those of 5 obese patients with COPD who were measured for comparison partially showed a reduction of resistance but airway obstruction remained. CONCLUSION The proposed breathing maneuver was simple to perform and allowed for a quantitative and qualitative detection of obesity-induced airway obstruction. This might help in reducing the likelihood of misdiagnosis and overtreatment of obese patients

Sex differences in clinical characteristics and outcomes in patients undergoing heart transplantation

Aims: Whether sex affects selection for and outcomes after heart transplantation (HTx) remains unclear. We aimed to show sex differences in pre‐transplant characteristics and outcomes after HTx. Methods and results: From 1995 to 2019, 49 200 HTx recipients were prospectively enrolled in the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate clinical characteristics by sex. Multivariable Cox regression models were fitted to assess sex differences in all‐cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, graft failure, cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), and malignancy. In 49 200 patients (median age 55 years, interquartile range 46–62; 24.6% women), 49 732 events occurred during a median follow‐up of 8.1 years. Men were older than women, had more often ischaemic cardiomyopathy (odds ratio [OR] 3.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.11–3.42; P < 0.001), and a higher burden of cardiovascular risk factors, whereas women had less malignancies (OR 0.47, CI 0.44–0.51; P < 0.001). Men were more often treated in intensive care unit (OR 1.24, CI 1.12–1.37; P < 0.001) with a higher need for ventilatory (OR 1.24, CI 1.17–1.32; P < 0.001) or VAD (OR 1.53, CI 1.45–1.63; P < 0.001) support. After multivariable adjustment, men had a higher risk for CAV (hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, CI 1.13–1.29; P < 0.001) and malignancy (HR 1.80, CI 1.62–2.00; P < 0.001). There were no differences in all‐cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and graft failure between sexes. Conclusions: In this US transplant registry, men and women differed in pre‐transplant characteristics. Male sex was independently associated with incident CAV and malignancy even after multivariable adjustment. Our results underline the need for better personalized post‐HTx management and care

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in European Population Cohorts for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure, Their Subsequent Onset, and Death

Background: Differences in risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are incompletely understood. Aim of this study was to understand whether risk factors and biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF and to investigate predictors of subsequent onset and mortality. Methods and Results: In N=58 693 individuals free of AF/HF from 5 population-based European cohorts, Cox regressions were used to find predictors for AF, HF, subsequent onset, and mortality. Differences between associations were estimated using bootstrapping. Median follow-up time was 13.8 years, with a mortality of 15.7%. AF and HF occurred in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, respectively, with 1.8% showing subsequent onset. Age, male sex, myocardial infarction, body mass index, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) showed similar associations with both diseases. Antihypertensive medication and smoking were stronger predictors of HF than AF. Cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were associated with HF, but not with AF. No variable was exclusively associated with AF. Population-attributable risks were higher for HF (75.6%) than for AF (30.9%). Age, male sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and NT-proBNP were associated with subsequent onset, which was associated with the highest all-cause mortality risk. Conclusions: Common risk factors and biomarkers showed different associations with AF and HF, and explained a higher proportion of HF than AF risk. As the subsequent onset of both diseases was strongly associated with mortality, prevention needs to be rigorously addressed and remains challenging, as conventional risk factors explained o:nly 31% of AF risk

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in European Population Cohorts for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure, Their Subsequent Onset, and Death

Background: Differences in risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are incompletely understood. Aim of this study was to understand whether risk factors and biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF and to investigate predictors of subsequent onset and mortality.Methods and Results: In N=58 693 individuals free of AF/HF from 5 population-based European cohorts, Cox regressions were used to find predictors for AF, HF, subsequent onset, and mortality. Differences between associations were estimated using bootstrapping. Median follow-up time was 13.8 years, with a mortality of 15.7%. AF and HF occurred in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, respectively, with 1.8% showing subsequent onset. Age, male sex, myocardial infarction, body mass index, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) showed similar associations with both diseases. Antihypertensive medication and smoking were stronger predictors of HF than AF. Cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were associated with HF, but not with AF. No variable was exclusively associated with AF. Population-attributable risks were higher for HF (75.6%) than for AF (30.9%). Age, male sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and NT-proBNP were associated with subsequent onset, which was associated with the highest all-cause mortality risk.Conclusions: Common risk factors and biomarkers showed different associations with AF and HF, and explained a higher proportion of HF than AF risk. As the subsequent onset of both diseases was strongly associated with mortality, prevention needs to be rigorously addressed and remains challenging, as conventional risk factors explained only 31% of AF risk.</div

Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes

Aims There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts.Methods and results In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P Conclusions In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention.</p

Temporal relations between atrial fibrillation and ischaemic stroke and their prognostic impact on mortality

AimsLimited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality.Methods and resultsAcross five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th–75th percentile 35.8–57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17–7.54; P P ConclusionThe temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes.</p

Cardiac Troponin I and Incident Stroke in European Cohorts Insights From the BiomarCaRE Project

Background and Purpose: Stroke is a common cause of death and a leading cause of disability and morbidity. Stroke risk assessment remains a challenge, but circulating biomarkers may improve risk prediction. Controversial evidence is available on the predictive ability of troponin concentrations and the risk of stroke in the community. Furthermore, reports on the predictive value of troponin concentrations for different stroke subtypes are scarce. Methods: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) concentrations were assessed in 82 881 individuals (median age, 50.7 years; 49.7% men) free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline from 9 prospective European community cohorts. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine relative risks, followed by measures of discrimination and reclassification using 10-fold cross-validation to control for overoptimism. Follow-up was based upon linkage with national hospitalization registries and causes of death registries. Results: Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 3033 individuals were diagnosed with incident nonfatal or fatal stroke (n=1654 ischemic strokes, n=612 hemorrhagic strokes, and n=767 indeterminate strokes). In multivariable regression models, hsTnI concentrations were associated with overall stroke (hazard ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.10-1.21]), ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.09-1.21]), and hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01-1.20]). Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical cardiovascular risk factors (C indices, 0.809, 0.840, and 0.736 for overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively) increased the C index significantly but modestly. In individuals with an intermediate 10-year risk (5%-20%), the net reclassification improvement for overall stroke was 0.038 (P=0.021). Conclusions: Elevated hsTnI concentrations are associated with an increased risk of incident stroke in the community, irrespective of stroke subtype. Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical risk factors only modestly improved estimation of 10-year risk of stroke in the overall cohort but might be of some value in individuals at an intermediate risk.</div