An empirical study on the decoupling movements between corporate bond and CDS spreads

Applied to the European markets, this paper analyzes the price of credit risk on the Credit Default Swap (CDS) and corporate bond markets by comparing the sensitivity of the credit spreads on each market to systematic, idiosyncratic risk factors and liquidity. Our analysis confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between the two markets, and the tendency for CDS markets to lead corporate bond markets in terms of price discovery. We find that the outbreak of the financial turmoil in the summer of 2007 induced a substantial increase in risk aversion and a shift in the pricing of credit risk, with CDS markets becoming more sensitive to systematic risk while cash bond markets priced in more information about liquidity and idiosyncratic risk. Moreover, the financial turbulence also brought about a systematic disconnection between the two markets caused by the significant change in the lead-lag relationship, with CDS markets always leading the cash bond markets. JEL Classification: G12, G14, G15corporate bond spreads, Credit Default Swap Spreads, liquidity

Lost to follow-up in the Norwegian mother, father and child cohort study

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Bayesian uncertainty quantification in linear models for diffusion MRI

Diffusion MRI (dMRI) is a valuable tool in the assessment of tissue microstructure. By fitting a model to the dMRI signal it is possible to derive various quantitative features. Several of the most popular dMRI signal models are expansions in an appropriately chosen basis, where the coefficients are determined using some variation of least-squares. However, such approaches lack any notion of uncertainty, which could be valuable in e.g. group analyses. In this work, we use a probabilistic interpretation of linear least-squares methods to recast popular dMRI models as Bayesian ones. This makes it possible to quantify the uncertainty of any derived quantity. In particular, for quantities that are affine functions of the coefficients, the posterior distribution can be expressed in closed-form. We simulated measurements from single- and double-tensor models where the correct values of several quantities are known, to validate that the theoretically derived quantiles agree with those observed empirically. We included results from residual bootstrap for comparison and found good agreement. The validation employed several different models: Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI), Mean Apparent Propagator MRI (MAP-MRI) and Constrained Spherical Deconvolution (CSD). We also used in vivo data to visualize maps of quantitative features and corresponding uncertainties, and to show how our approach can be used in a group analysis to downweight subjects with high uncertainty. In summary, we convert successful linear models for dMRI signal estimation to probabilistic models, capable of accurate uncertainty quantification.Comment: Added results from a group analysis and a comparison with residual bootstra

Work related and non-work related stress in relation to low leisure time physical activity in a Swedish population.

Physical activity is regarded as an important component of a healthy lifestyle. Several social and environmental factors have systematically emerged as barriers to low leisure time physical activity (LTPA), for example, lack of money, low social support due to lack of supportive family or friends, and living in high crime rate areas. Low LTPA has been found to be strongly associated with low socioeconomic status groups where psychosocial stressors have been suggested to play a mediating part.1,2 The overall aim of this study was to investigate the association between work and non-work related stressors, respectively, in relation to low LTPA in a general population sample. Our main hypothesis was that psychosocial stressors would act as barriers to physical activity thus generating sedentary behaviour as measured by LTPA

Not okay: Preschool teachers talk about inappropriate touching

This study investigates views and experiences described by Swedish preschool teachers regarding inappropriate and unprofessional physical touching between educators and children. The empirical material consists of semi-structured interviews with 30 preschool teachers. The interviews were analysed with thematic analysis, and further examined in the light of the concepts ‘becoming’ and ’being’. The results show that educators consider it inappropriate and unprofessional for staff to grab or restrain a child, or to touch a child without observing the child’s signals, as doing so violates the child’s integrity. It is also deemed wrong to carry or ‘help’ a capable child, as this is considered undermining the child’s agency. Further, to kiss a child is also deemed inappropriate and unprofessional. The informants have, however, slightly different approaches and experiences regarding kissing. The results show that preschool teachers struggle with these issues. The boundaries between appropriate and inappropriate touching may be difficult to draw up. And in concrete situations, the concepts ‘becoming’ and ‘being’ are not always easy to separate. The study concludes that both preschool teacher education and workplaces should pay attention to the subtle, but culturally and socially permeated, issues of touch

Nordic Built Cities Challenge Awards

FinalistaPostprint (published version

Multiple cyclical fractional structures in financial time series

This paper analyses multiple cyclical structures in financial time series. In particular, we focus on the monthly structure of the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones and the Standard&Poor stock market indices. The three series are modelled as long-memory processes with poles in the spectrum at multiple frequencies, including the long-run or zero frequency

Social Influence in Stockmarkets: A Conceptual Analysis of Social Influence Processes in Stock Markets

This paper focuses on the role of social factors for booms-bubbles-busts cycles in stock markets. It is argued that indirect and direct social influences are important contributors by reinforcing stock investors’ cognitive biases exaggerated by affective influences. A review of herding research primarily undertaken by financial economists is followed by a demonstration that psychological theories of direct social influence (imitation) have bearings on the understanding of the herding phenomenon in stock markets. How to continue this research with relevance for regulations of stock markets is discussed.Social influence; stock investments; conceptual analysis