Modelling the evolution of distributions : an application to major league baseball

We develop Bayesian techniques for modelling the evolution of entire distributions over time and apply them to the distribution of team performance in Major League baseball for the period 1901-2000. Such models offer insight into many key issues (e.g. competitive balance) in a way that regression-based models cannot. The models involve discretizing the distribution and then modelling the evolution of the bins over time through transition probability matrices. We allow for these matrices to vary over time and across teams. We find that, with one exception, the transition probability matrices (and, hence, competitive balance) have been remarkably constant across time and over teams. The one exception is the Yankees, who have outperformed all other teams

The Return To Tax Simplification: an Econometric Analysis

This article provides estimates of the probable saving in the resource cost of complying with the tax law that would result from simplifying the individual Abstract income tax law. These estimates are based on an econometric analysis of the tax-filing behavior in 1982 of a sample of Minnesota taxpayers. A simple model of tax-compliance behavior based on utility maximization is first presented in order to suggest the important determinants of compliance behavior. The empirical model treats the discrete choices of whether to itemize deductions and whether to hire professional tax advice, and the choice of how much time and money to spend, conditional on the discrete choices made. Simulations based on the econometric results suggest that significant resource saving could be expected from eliminating the system of itemized deductions, although no significant saving from changing to a single-rate tax structure can be confidently predicted. Results suggest that the Tax Reform Act of 1986 will, in the long run, decrease the use ofprofessional tax assistance, but its net effect on the use of taxpayer's own time is unclear.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68711/2/10.1177_109114218901700101.pd

The demand for sports and exercise: Results from an illustrative survey

Funding from the Department of Health policy research programme was used in this study.There is a paucity of empirical evidence on the extent to which price and perceived benefits affect the level of participation in sports and exercise. Using an illustrative sample of 60 adults at Brunel University, West London, we investigate the determinants of demand for sports and exercise. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews that covered indicators of sports and exercise behaviour; money/time price and perceived benefits of participation; and socio- economic/demographic details. Count, linear and probit regression models were fitted as appropriate. Seventy eight per cent of the sample participated in sports and exercise and spent an average of £27 per month and an average of 20 min travelling per occasion of sports and exercise. The demand for sport and exercise was negatively associated with time (travel or access time) and ‘variable’ price and positively correlated with ‘fixed’ price. Demand was price inelastic, except in the case of meeting the UK government’s recommended level of participation, which is time price elastic (elasticity = −2.2). The implications of data from a larger nationally representative sample as well as the role of economic incentives in influencing uptake of sports and exercise are discussed.This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

Drop Traffic in Microfluidic Ladder Networks with Fore-Aft Structural Asymmetry

We investigate the dynamics of pairs of drops in microfluidic ladder networks with slanted bypasses, which break the fore-aft structural symmetry. Our analytical results indicate that unlike symmetric ladder networks, structural asymmetry introduced by a single slanted bypass can be used to modulate the relative drop spacing, enabling them to contract, synchronize, expand, or even flip at the ladder exit. Our experiments confirm all these behaviors predicted by theory. Numerical analysis further shows that while ladder networks containing several identical bypasses are limited to nearly linear transformation of input delay between drops, mixed combination of bypasses can cause significant non-linear transformation enabling coding and decoding of input delays.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Media control: a case for privatization in transitional economies

The television market can be one of the most dynamic industries if country-specific regulations allow for private competitors to enter the market. The entry of competition changes the market from monopolistic to oligopolistic, which has positive performance implications for the industry. Our research analyzes the development of the Croatian TV market from the monopolistic stage to the current oligopolistic stage. Econometric models in this article aim to estimate the current trend of market concentration and its future potential. The authors’ research focusing on the industry from a market concentration perspective provides guidance for the practitioner in regard to profitable investment opportunities. They also illustrate for other transitional economies that to move toward a “free” society, media must be free from government control which will evolve rapidly once privatized. © 2016 Taylor & Francis

Chain-store pricing and the structure of retail markets

This paper examines competition between chain-stores and independent retailers in the UK retail opticians' market. We demonstrate that the pricing policy adopted by chain-stores can determine the impact their entry has on independent retailers. Crucially, in this market the chain-store retailers set an identical national price across all local markets. Our results suggest that this pricing strategy lessens the detrimental effect competition from chain-stores has on independent retailers

Quality target negotiation in health care : evidence from the English NHS

We examine how public sector third-party purchasers and hospitals negotiate quality targets when a fixed proportion of hospital revenue is required to be linked to quality. We develop a bargaining model linking the number of quality targets to purchaser and hospital characteristics. Using data extracted from 153 contracts for acute hospital services in England in 2010/11, we find that the number of quality targets is associated with the purchaser’s population health and its budget, the hospital type, whether the purchaser delegated negotiation to an agency, and the quality targets imposed by the supervising regional health authority

The effect of lifelong learning on men's wages

This paper develops a model of earnings and applies this to an examination of the effect of lifelong learning on men’s wages. Using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a variant of the mover–stayer model is developed in which hourly wages are either taken from a stationary distribution (movers) or closely related to the hourly wage one year earlier (stayers). Mover–stayer status is not observed, and we therefore model wages using an endogenous switching regression, estimated by maximum likelihood. Methodologically, the results support the mover–stayer characterisation since the restrictions required for the simpler specifications popular in the literature are rejected. Substantively, simulation of the estimated model shows some statistically significant effects from acquiring qualifications of a higher level than those previously held, but not from acquiring qualifications of the same level

Market Disequilibria and Their Influence on Small Retail Store Pricing

In this paper a quantitative model is developed to explain differences in average store price levels. We assume that stores may operate under different economic regimes, that is, under excess capacity or excess demand. Prices are expected to be higher than average in case of an excess demand regime and lower in an excess capacity situation. Actual information regarding the regime that applies to each individual store is not available. Therefore, we propose to use a so-called 'switching model' with endogenous regime choice to analyse the store price differences. The model developed m the paper is estimated using four largely differing types of stores from the Durch retail trade. These samples consist mainly of small stores