Bayesian regression filter and the issue of priors

We propose a Bayesian framework for regression problems, which covers areas which are usually dealt with by function approximation. An online learning algorithm is derived which solves regression problems with a Kalman filter. Its solution always improves with increasing model complexity, without the risk of over-fitting. In the infinite dimension limit it approaches the true Bayesian posterior. The issues of prior selection and over-fitting are also discussed, showing that some of the commonly held beliefs are misleading. The practical implementation is summarised. Simulations using 13 popular publicly available data sets are used to demonstrate the method and highlight important issues concerning the choice of priors

A Descriptive Morphology of the Ant Genus Procryptocerus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Morphology is the most direct approach biologists have to recognize uniqueness of insect species as compared to close relatives. Ants of the genus Procryptocerus possess important morphologic characters yet have not been explored for use in a taxonomic revision. The genus is characterized by the protrusion of the clypeus forming a broad nasus and antennal scrobes over the eyes. The toruli are located right posterior to the flanks of the nasus opposite to each other. The vertex is deflexed posteriorly in most species. An in-group comparison of the external morphology is presented focusing on the workers. A general morphology for gynes and males is also presented. Previously mentioned characters as well as new ones are presented, and their character states in different species are clarified. For the metasoma a new system of ant metasomal somite nomenclature is presented that is applicable to Aculeata in general. Finally, a Glossary of morphological terms is offered for the genus (available online). Most of the terminology can be used in other members of the Formicidae and Aculeata

Effect of irradiation/bone marrow transplantation on alveolar epithelial type II cells is aggravated in surfactant protein D deficient mice.

Irradiation followed by bone marrow transplantation (BM-Tx) is a frequent therapeutic intervention causing pathology to the lung. Although alveolar epithelial type II (AE2) cells are essential for lung function and are damaged by irradiation, the long-term consequences of irradiation and BM-Tx are not well characterized. In addition, it is unknown whether surfactant protein D (SP-D) influences the response of AE2 cells to the injurious events. Therefore, wildtype (WT) and SP-D(-/-) mice were subjected to a myeloablative whole body irradiation dose of 8 Gy and subsequent BM-Tx and compared with age- and sex-matched untreated controls. AE2 cell changes were investigated quantitatively by design-based stereology. Compared with WT, untreated SP-D(-/-) mice showed a higher number of larger sized AE2 cells and a greater amount of surfactant-storing lamellar bodies. Irradiation and BM-Tx induced hyperplasia and hypertrophy in WT and SP-D(-/-) mice as well as the formation of giant lamellar bodies. The experimentally induced alterations were more severe in the SP-D(-/-) than in the WT mice, particularly with respect to the surfactant-storing lamellar bodies which were sometimes extremely enlarged in SP-D(-/-) mice. In conclusion, irradiation and BM-Tx have profound long-term effects on AE2 cells and their lamellar bodies. These data may explain some of the clinical pulmonary consequences of this procedure. The data should also be taken into account when BM-Tx is used as an experimental procedure to investigate the impact of bone marrow-derived cells for the phenotype of a specific genotype in the mouse

Comparing families of dynamic causal models

Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data

Vitamin D and subsequent all-age and premature mortality: a systematic review

<br>Background: All-cause mortality in the population < 65 years is 30% higher in Glasgow than in equally deprived Liverpool and Manchester. We investigated a hypothesis that low vitamin D in this population may be associated with premature mortality via a systematic review and meta-analysis.</br> <br>Methods: Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library and grey literature sources were searched until February 2012 for relevant studies. Summary statistics were combined in an age-stratified meta-analysis.</br> <br>Results: Nine studies were included in the meta-analysis, representing 24,297 participants, 5,324 of whom died during follow-up. The pooled hazard ratio for low compared to high vitamin D demonstrated a significant inverse association (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.12-1.27) between vitamin D levels and all-cause mortality after adjustment for available confounders. In an age-stratified meta-analysis, the hazard ratio for older participants was 1.25 (95% CI 1.14-1.36) and for younger participants 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.24).</br> <br>Conclusions: Low vitamin D status is inversely associated with all-cause mortality but the risk is higher amongst older individuals and the relationship is prone to residual confounding. Further studies investigating the association between vitamin D deficiency and all-cause mortality in younger adults with adjustment for all important confounders (or using randomised trials of supplementation) are required to clarify this relationship.</br&gt

CXCR6 marks a novel subset of T-bet(lo)Eomes(hi) natural killer cells residing in human liver

This work was funded by a Wellcome Trust Investigator Award to MKM funding KS and LP, MRC Career Development Award to CD, MRC Clinical Research Training Fellowship to DP, Wellcome Trust Henry Dale Fellowship to VM

Genetics, recombination and clinical features of human rhinovirus species C (HRV-C) infections; interactions of HRV-C with other respiratory viruses

To estimate the frequency, molecular epidemiological and clinical associations of infection with the newly described species C variants of human rhinoviruses (HRV), 3243 diagnostic respiratory samples referred for diagnostic testing in Edinburgh were screened using a VP4-encoding region-based selective polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for HRV-C along with parallel PCR testing for 13 other respiratory viruses. HRV-C was the third most frequently detected behind respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and adenovirus, with 141 infection episodes detected among 1885 subjects over 13 months (7.5%). Infections predominantly targeted the very young (median age 6–12 months; 80% of infections in those <2 years), occurred throughout the year but with peak incidence in early winter months. HRV-C was detected significantly more frequently among subjects with lower (LRT) and upper respiratory tract (URT) disease than controls without respiratory symptoms; HRV-C mono-infections were the second most frequently detected virus (behind RSV) in both disease presentations (6.9% and 7.8% of all cases respectively). HRV variants were classified by VP4/VP2 sequencing into 39 genotypically defined types, increasing the current total worldwide to 60. Through sequence comparisons of the 5′untranslated region (5′UTR), the majority grouped with species A (n = 96; 68%, described as HRV-Ca), the remainder forming a phylogenetically distinct 5′UTR group (HRV-Cc). Multiple and bidirectional recombination events between HRV-Ca and HRV-Cc variants and with HRV species A represents the most parsimonious explanation for their interspersed phylogeny relationships in the VP4/VP2-encoding region. No difference in age distribution, seasonality or disease associations was identified between HRV-Ca and HRV-Cc variants. HRV-C-infected subjects showed markedly reduced detection frequencies of RSV and other respiratory viruses, providing evidence for a major interfering effect of HRV-C on susceptibility to other respiratory virus infections. HRV-C's disease associations, its prevalence and evidence for interfering effects on other respiratory viruses mandates incorporation of rhinoviruses into future diagnostic virology screening

A Bayesian Framework to Account for Complex Non-Genetic Factors in Gene Expression Levels Greatly Increases Power in eQTL Studies

Gene expression measurements are influenced by a wide range of factors, such as the state of the cell, experimental conditions and variants in the sequence of regulatory regions. To understand the effect of a variable of interest, such as the genotype of a locus, it is important to account for variation that is due to confounding causes. Here, we present VBQTL, a probabilistic approach for mapping expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) that jointly models contributions from genotype as well as known and hidden confounding factors. VBQTL is implemented within an efficient and flexible inference framework, making it fast and tractable on large-scale problems. We compare the performance of VBQTL with alternative methods for dealing with confounding variability on eQTL mapping datasets from simulations, yeast, mouse, and human. Employing Bayesian complexity control and joint modelling is shown to result in more precise estimates of the contribution of different confounding factors resulting in additional associations to measured transcript levels compared to alternative approaches. We present a threefold larger collection of cis eQTLs than previously found in a whole-genome eQTL scan of an outbred human population. Altogether, 27% of the tested probes show a significant genetic association in cis, and we validate that the additional eQTLs are likely to be real by replicating them in different sets of individuals. Our method is the next step in the analysis of high-dimensional phenotype data, and its application has revealed insights into genetic regulation of gene expression by demonstrating more abundant cis-acting eQTLs in human than previously shown. Our software is freely available online at http://www.sanger.ac.uk/resources/software/peer/