Modeling solutions to Tanzania's physician workforce challenge.

BACKGROUND:There is a great need for physicians in Tanzania. In 2012, there were approximately 0.31 physicians per 10,000 individuals nationwide, with a lower ratio in the rural areas, where the majority of the population resides. In response, universities across Tanzania have greatly increased the enrollment of medical students. Yet evidence suggests high attrition of medical graduates to other professions and emigration from rural areas where they are most needed. OBJECTIVE:To estimate the future number of physicians practicing in Tanzania and the potential impact of interventions to improve retention, we built a model that tracks medical students from enrollment through clinical practice, from 1990 to 2025. DESIGN:We designed a Markov process with 92 potential states capturing the movement of 25,000 medical students and physicians from medical training through employment. Work possibilities included clinical practice (divided into rural or urban, public or private), non-clinical work, and emigration. We populated and calibrated the model using a national 2005/2006 physician mapping survey, as well as graduation records, graduate tracking surveys, and other available data. RESULTS:The model projects massive losses to clinical practice between 2016 and 2025, especially in rural areas. Approximately 56% of all medical school students enrolled between 2011 and 2020 will not be practicing medicine in Tanzania in 2025. Even with these losses, the model forecasts an increase in the physician-to-population ratio to 1.4 per 10,000 by 2025. Increasing the absorption of recent graduates into the public sector and/or developing a rural training track would ameliorate physician attrition in the most underserved areas. CONCLUSIONS:Tanzania is making significant investments in the training of physicians. Without linking these doctors to employment and ensuring their retention, the majority of this investment in medical education will be jeopardized

Causes of prehospital misinterpretations of ST elevation myocardial infarction

Objectives: To determine the causes of software misinterpretation of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) compared to clinically identified STEMI to identify opportunities to improve prehospital STEMI identification. Methods: We compared ECGs acquired from July 2011 through June 2012 using the LIFEPAK 15 on adult patients transported by the Los Angeles Fire Department. Cases included patients ≥18 years who received a prehospital ECG. Software interpretation of the ECG (STEMI or not) was compared with data in the regional EMS registry to classify the interpretation as true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP), or false negative (FN). For cases where classification was not possible using registry data, 3 blinded cardiologists interpreted the ECG. Each discordance was subsequently reviewed to determine the likely cause of misclassification. The cardiologists independently reviewed a sample of these discordant ECGs and the causes of misclassification were updated in an iterative fashion. Results: Of 44,611 cases, 50% were male (median age 65; inter-quartile range 52–80). Cases were classified as 482 (1.1%) TP, 711 (1.6%) FP, 43371 (97.2%) TN, and 47 (0.11%) FN. Of the 711 classified as FP, 126 (18%) were considered appropriate for, though did not undergo, emergent coronary angiography, because the ECG showed definite (52 cases) or borderline (65 cases) ischemic ST elevation, a STEMI equivalent (5 cases) or ST-elevation due to vasospasm (4 cases). The sensitivity was 92.8% [95% CI 90.6, 94.7%] and the specificity 98.7% [95% CI 98.6, 98.8%]. The leading causes of FP were ECG artifact (20%), early repolarization (16%), probable pericarditis/myocarditis (13%), indeterminate (12%), left ventricular hypertrophy (8%), and right bundle branch block (5%). There were 18 additional reasons for FP interpretation (<4% each). The leading causes of FN were borderline ST-segment elevations less than the algorithm threshold (40%) and tall T waves reducing the ST/T ratio below threshold (15%). There were 11 additional reasons for FN interpretation occurring ≤3 times each. Conclusion: The leading causes of FP automated interpretation of STEMI were ECG artifact and non-ischemic causes of ST-segment elevation. FN were rare and were related to ST-segment elevation or ST/T ratio that did not meet the software algorithm threshold

Millimetre-wave radar observations of glacier calving at Hansbreen (Svalbard) correlated with TLS, time-lapse camera images and seismic records

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Improving the normalization of complex interventions: measure development based on normalization process theory (NoMAD): study protocol

<b>Background</b> Understanding implementation processes is key to ensuring that complex interventions in healthcare are taken up in practice and thus maximize intended benefits for service provision and (ultimately) care to patients. Normalization Process Theory (NPT) provides a framework for understanding how a new intervention becomes part of normal practice. This study aims to develop and validate simple generic tools derived from NPT, to be used to improve the implementation of complex healthcare interventions.<p></p> <b>Objectives</b> The objectives of this study are to: develop a set of NPT-based measures and formatively evaluate their use for identifying implementation problems and monitoring progress; conduct preliminary evaluation of these measures across a range of interventions and contexts, and identify factors that affect this process; explore the utility of these measures for predicting outcomes; and develop an online users’ manual for the measures.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> A combination of qualitative (workshops, item development, user feedback, cognitive interviews) and quantitative (survey) methods will be used to develop NPT measures, and test the utility of the measures in six healthcare intervention settings.<p></p> <b>Discussion</b> The measures developed in the study will be available for use by those involved in planning, implementing, and evaluating complex interventions in healthcare and have the potential to enhance the chances of their implementation, leading to sustained changes in working practices

Unraveling the directional link between adiposity and inflammation: a bidirectional mendelian randomization approach

<b>Context</b>: Associations between adiposity and circulating inflammation markers are assumed to be causal, although the direction of the relationship has not been proven. <b>Objective</b>: The aim of the study was to explore the causal direction of the relationship between adiposity and inflammation using a bidirectional Mendelian randomization approach. <b>Methods</b>: In the PROSPER study of 5804 elderly patients, we related C-reactive protein (CRP) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs1800947 and rs1205) and adiposity SNPs (FTO and MC4R) to body mass index (BMI) as well as circulating levels of CRP and leptin. We gave each individual two allele scores ranging from zero to 4, counting each pair of alleles related to CRP levels or BMI. <b>Results</b>: With increasing CRP allele score, there was a stepwise decrease in CRP levels (P for trend < 0.0001) and a 1.98 mg/liter difference between extremes of the allele score distribution, but there was no associated change in BMI or leptin levels (P ≥ 0.89). By contrast, adiposity allele score was associated with 1) an increase in BMI (1.2 kg/m2 difference between extremes; P for trend 0.002); 2) an increase in circulating leptin (5.77 ng/ml difference between extremes; P for trend 0.0027); and 3) increased CRP levels (1.24 mg/liter difference between extremes; P for trend 0.002). <b>Conclusions</b>: Greater adiposity conferred by FTO and MC4R SNPs led to higher CRP levels, with no evidence for any reverse pathway. Future studies should extend our findings to other circulating inflammatory parameters. This study illustrates the potential power of Mendelian randomization to dissect directions of causality between intercorrelated metabolic factors

Microscopic calculations of medium effects for 200-MeV (p,p') reactions

We examine the quality of a G-matrix calculation of the effective nucleon-nucleon (NN) interaction for the prediction of the cross section and analyzing power for 200-MeV (p,p') reactions that populate natural parity states in $^{16}$O, $^{28}$Si, and $^{40}$Ca. This calculation is based on a one-boson-exchange model of the free NN force that reproduces NN observables well. The G-matrix includes the effects of Pauli blocking, nuclear binding, and strong relativistic mean-field potentials. The implications of adjustments to the effective mass ansatz to improve the quality of the approximation at momenta above the Fermi level will be discussed, along with the general quality of agreement to a variety of (p,p') transitions.Comment: 36 pages, TeX, 18 figure

Randomised controlled trial of GM-CSF in critically ill patients with impaired neutrophil phagocytosis

Background. Critically ill patients with impaired neutrophil phagocytosis have significantly increased risk of nosocomial infection. Granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) improves phagocytosis by neutrophils ex vivo. This study tested the hypothesis that GM-CSF improves neutrophil phagocytosis in critically ill patients in whom phagocytosis is known to be impaired Methods. This was a multi-centre, phase 2a randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial Using a personalised medicine approach, only critically ill patients with impaired neutrophil phagocytosis were included. Patients were randomised 1:1 to subcutaneous GM-CSF (3 microgrammws/kg/day) or placebo, once daily for 4 days. The primary outcome measure was neutrophil phagocytosis 2 days after initiation of GM-CSF. Secondary outcomes included neutrophil phagocytosis over time, neutrophil functions other than phagocytosis, monocyte HLA-DR expression, and safety. Results. Thirty-eight patients were recruited from 5 intensive care units (17 randomised to GM-CSF). Mean neutrophil phagocytosis at day 2 was 57.2% (SD 13.2%) in the GM-CSF group and 49.8% (13.4%) in the placebo group, p=0.73. The proportion of patients with neutrophil phagocytosis >50% at day 2, and monocyte HLA-DR, appeared significantly higher in the GM-CSF group. Neutrophil functions other than phagocytosis did not appear significantly different between the groups. The most common adverse event associated with GM-CSF was pyrexia. Conclusions. GM-CSF did not improve mean neutrophil phagocytosis at day 2, but was safe and appeared to increase the proportion of patients with adequate phagocytosis. The study suggests proof of principle for a pharmacological effect on neutrophil function in a subset of critically ill patients.This work was funded by a grant from the Medical Research Council (G1100233), with additional support from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre. It was sponsored by Newcastle Universit