Effect of climate change, connectivity, and socioeconomic factors on the expansion of the dengue virus transmission zone in 21st century Brazil: an ecological modelling study

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.2021 Planetary Health Annual Meeting and Festival, 25 - 30 April 2021. VirtualBackground Globally, incidence of dengue fever has increased more than 30-times in the past 50 years, with outbreaks becoming frequent in tropical and subtropical countries. This rapid emergence has been attributed to increased urbanisation, globalisation, international mobility, and climate change. Brazil is endemic to all four dengue virus serotypes with outbreaks occurring in every region of the country. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue diffusion, with some regions of Brazil being relatively protected from outbreaks. These regions included areas in the south of the country where seasonal temperatures were too cold for vectors to efficiently transmit the virus, regions of the western Amazon that were isolated from infectious hosts and vectors, and mountainous regions of southeast Brazil. Methods In this ecological modelling study, we used a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to understand the effect of climate variation, connectivity between cities, and socioeconomic factors, such as urbanisation, on the expansion of the permanent dengue virus transmission zone in Brazil. We obtained monthly dengue fever case data from 5560 municipalities in Brazil for 2001–19 from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) surveillance system. The model was fitted to an outbreak indicator defined as exceeding 300 cases per 100 000 inhabitants per year. Fixed effects included climate suitability and hydrometeorological variables obtained from the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK), the level of influence of a city from the Brazilian Regiōes de Influência das Cidades study, and socioeconomic factors, such as urbanisation, from census data. Spatiotemporal random effects were included to account for unobserved heterogeneity, spatial autocorrelation, and temporal trends. Findings Data from the past 10 years showed that pre-identified geographical barriers to dengue virus transmission are being eroded or destroyed completely. The emergence of dengue fever outbreaks in south Brazil coincided with an increase in the number of months per year with temperatures suitable for transmission. Interpretation Understanding the factors that lead to the erosion of barriers to dengue virus transmission will help identify regions at risk of future outbreaks, and improve public health preparedness to emerging and re-emerging diseases.Royal Societ

Dengue outlook for the World Cup in Brazil: an early warning model framework driven by real-time seasonal climate forecasts.

PublishedJournal ArticleResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tBACKGROUND: With more than a million spectators expected to travel among 12 different cities in Brazil during the football World Cup, June 12-July 13, 2014, the risk of the mosquito-transmitted disease dengue fever is a concern. We addressed the potential for a dengue epidemic during the tournament, using a probabilistic forecast of dengue risk for the 553 microregions of Brazil, with risk level warnings for the 12 cities where matches will be played. METHODS: We obtained real-time seasonal climate forecasts from several international sources (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts [ECMWF], Met Office, Meteo-France and Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos [CPTEC]) and the observed dengue epidemiological situation in Brazil at the forecast issue date as provided by the Ministry of Health. Using this information we devised a spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework that enabled dengue warnings to be made 3 months ahead. By assessing the past performance of the forecasting system using observed dengue incidence rates for June, 2000-2013, we identified optimum trigger alert thresholds for scenarios of medium-risk and high-risk of dengue. FINDINGS: Our forecasts for June, 2014, showed that dengue risk was likely to be low in the host cities Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre, and São Paulo. The risk was medium in Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, and Manaus. High-risk alerts were triggered for the northeastern cities of Recife (p(high)=19%), Fortaleza (p(high)=46%), and Natal (p(high)=48%). For these high-risk areas, particularly Natal, the forecasting system did well for previous years (in June, 2000-13). INTERPRETATION: This timely dengue early warning permits the Ministry of Health and local authorities to implement appropriate, city-specific mitigation and control actions ahead of the World Cup. FUNDING: European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme projects DENFREE, EUPORIAS, and SPECS; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.DENFREE projectEUPORIAS projectSPECS projectEuropean Commission's Seventh Framework Research ProgrammeConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeir

miRNA contributions to pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis inferred from GWAS.

ObjectiveOnset of multiple sclerosis (MS) occurs in childhood for approximately 5% of cases (pediatric MS, or ped-MS). Epigenetic influences are strongly implicated in MS pathogenesis in adults, including the contribution from microRNAs (miRNAs), small noncoding RNAs that affect gene expression by binding target gene mRNAs. Few studies have specifically examined miRNAs in ped-MS, but individuals developing MS at an early age may carry a relatively high burden of genetic risk factors, and miRNA dysregulation may therefore play a larger role in the development of ped-MS than in adult-onset MS. This study aimed to look for evidence of miRNA involvement in ped-MS pathogenesis.MethodsGWAS results from 486 ped-MS cases and 1362 controls from the U.S. Pediatric MS Network and Kaiser Permanente Northern California membership were investigated for miRNA-specific signals. First, enrichment of miRNA-target gene network signals was evaluated using MIGWAS software. Second, SNPs in miRNA genes and in target gene binding sites (miR-SNPs) were tested for association with ped-MS, and pathway analysis was performed on associated target genes.ResultsMIGWAS analysis showed that miRNA-target gene signals were enriched in GWAS (P = 0.038) and identified 39 candidate biomarker miRNA-target gene pairs, including immune and neuronal signaling genes. The miR-SNP analysis implicated dysregulation of miRNA binding to target genes in five pathways, mainly involved in immune signaling.InterpretationEvidence from GWAS suggests that miRNAs play a role in ped-MS pathogenesis by affecting immune signaling and other pathways. Candidate biomarker miRNA-target gene pairs should be further studied for diagnostic, prognostic, and/or therapeutic utility

Regulation of mammary gland branching morphogenesis by the extracellular matrix and its remodeling enzymes.

A considerable body of research indicates that mammary gland branching morphogenesis is dependent, in part, on the extracellular matrix (ECM), ECM-receptors, such as integrins and other ECM receptors, and ECM-degrading enzymes, including matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their inhibitors, tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs). There is some evidence that these ECM cues affect one or more of the following processes: cell survival, polarity, proliferation, differentiation, adhesion, and migration. Both three-dimensional culture models and genetic manipulations of the mouse mammary gland have been used to study the signaling pathways that affect these processes. However, the precise mechanisms of ECM-directed mammary morphogenesis are not well understood. Mammary morphogenesis involves epithelial 'invasion' of adipose tissue, a process akin to invasion by breast cancer cells, although the former is a highly regulated developmental process. How these morphogenic pathways are integrated in the normal gland and how they become dysregulated and subverted in the progression of breast cancer also remain largely unanswered questions

The TGF-β/Smad Repressor TG-Interacting Factor 1 (TGIF1) Plays a Role in Radiation-Induced Intestinal Injury Independently of a Smad Signaling Pathway

Despite advances in radiation delivery protocols, exposure of normal tissues during the course of radiation therapy remains a limiting factor of cancer treatment. If the canonical TGF-β/Smad pathway has been extensively studied and implicated in the development of radiation damage in various organs, the precise modalities of its activation following radiation exposure remain elusive. In the present study, we hypothesized that TGF-β1 signaling and target genes expression may depend on radiation-induced modifications in Smad transcriptional co-repressors/inhibitors expressions (TGIF1, SnoN, Ski and Smad7). In endothelial cells (HUVECs) and in a model of experimental radiation enteropathy in mice, radiation exposure increases expression of TGF-β/Smad pathway and of its target gene PAI-1, together with the overexpression of Smad co-repressor TGIF1. In mice, TGIF1 deficiency is not associated with changes in the expression of radiation-induced TGF-β pathway-related transcripts following localized small intestinal irradiation. In HUVECs, TGIF1 overexpression or silencing has no influence either on the radiation-induced Smad activation or the Smad3-dependent PAI-1 overexpression. However, TGIF1 genetic deficiency sensitizes mice to radiation-induced intestinal damage after total body or localized small intestinal radiation exposure, demonstrating that TGIF1 plays a role in radiation-induced intestinal injury. In conclusion, the TGF-β/Smad co-repressor TGIF1 plays a role in radiation-induced normal tissue damage by a Smad-independent mechanism

Promotion of variant human mammary epithelial cell outgrowth by ionizing radiation: an agent-based model supported by in vitro studies

IntroductionMost human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) cultured from histologically normal breast tissues enter a senescent state termed stasis after 5 to 20 population doublings. These senescent cells display increased size, contain senescence associated beta-galactosidase activity, and express cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, p16INK4A (CDKN2A; p16). However, HMEC grown in a serum-free medium, spontaneously yield, at low frequency, variant (v) HMEC that are capable of long-term growth and are susceptible to genomic instability. We investigated whether ionizing radiation, which increases breast cancer risk in women, affects the rate of vHMEC outgrowth.MethodsPre-stasis HMEC cultures were exposed to 5 to 200 cGy of sparsely (X- or gamma-rays) or densely (1 GeV/amu 56Fe) ionizing radiation. Proliferation (bromodeoxyuridine incorporation), senescence (senescence-associated beta-galactosidase activity), and p16 expression were assayed in subcultured irradiated or unirradiated populations four to six weeks following radiation exposure, when patches of vHMEC became apparent. Long-term growth potential and p16 promoter methylation in subsequent passages were also monitored. Agent-based modeling, incorporating a simple set of rules and underlying assumptions, was used to simulate vHMEC outgrowth and evaluate mechanistic hypotheses.ResultsCultures derived from irradiated cells contained significantly more vHMEC, lacking senescence associated beta-galactosidase or p16 expression, than cultures derived from unirradiated cells. As expected, post-stasis vHMEC cultures derived from both unirradiated and irradiated cells exhibited more extensive methylation of the p16 gene than pre-stasis HMEC cultures. However, the extent of methylation of individual CpG sites in vHMEC samples did not correlate with passage number or treatment. Exposure to sparsely or densely ionizing radiation elicited similar increases in the numbers of vHMEC compared to unirradiated controls. Agent-based modeling indicated that radiation-induced premature senescence of normal HMEC most likely accelerated vHMEC outgrowth through alleviation of spatial constraints. Subsequent experiments using defined co-cultures of vHMEC and senescent cells supported this mechanism.ConclusionsOur studies indicate that ionizing radiation can promote the outgrowth of epigenetically altered cells with pre-malignant potential