A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Open Access ArticleReliable estimates of future changes in extreme weather phenomena, such as tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, are critical for climate change impact assessments and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. However, global and regional climate model outputs are often too coarse for direct use in these applications, with variables such as wind speed having truncated probability distributions compared to those of observations. This poses two problems: How canmodel-simulated variables best be adjusted to make themmore realistic? And how can such adjustments be used to make more reliable predictions of future changes in their distribution? This study investigates North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds from observations (1950- 2010) and regional climate model simulations (1995-2005 and 2045-55 at 12- and 36-km spatial resolutions). The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations). The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories-for example, an increase from 21% (1995-2005) to 27%-37% (2045-55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995- 2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by theWillis Research Network, the Research Program to Secure Energy for America, NSF EASM Grant S1048841, and the NCARWeather and Climate Assessment Science Program. We thank Sherrie Fredrick for extracting data, and Cindy Bruyère, James Done, and Ben Youngman for productive discussions that enhanced this research. We also thank Dr. Adam Monahan and one anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments and suggestions

Many roads can lead to Rome – Supervisors perspectives on successful supervision and its challenges

In the last 10 years the Qualification in Sport and Exercise Psychology (QSEP) has continued to grow and develop, with the number of enrolled candidates and subsequent successful completions increasing year on year. As these practitioners enter the world of sport and exercise as Chartered and HCPC Registered practitioner psychologists, with full Divisional membership, the qualification’s reputation with service users has continued to grow. We now see numerous organisations not only employing those who have successfully completed, but also offering, short term placements, in-service training opportunities and internships

On Embeddability of Buses in Point Sets

Set membership of points in the plane can be visualized by connecting corresponding points via graphical features, like paths, trees, polygons, ellipses. In this paper we study the \emph{bus embeddability problem} (BEP): given a set of colored points we ask whether there exists a planar realization with one horizontal straight-line segment per color, called bus, such that all points with the same color are connected with vertical line segments to their bus. We present an ILP and an FPT algorithm for the general problem. For restricted versions of this problem, such as when the relative order of buses is predefined, or when a bus must be placed above all its points, we provide efficient algorithms. We show that another restricted version of the problem can be solved using 2-stack pushall sorting. On the negative side we prove the NP-completeness of a special case of BEP.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures, conference version at GD 201

Seiberg-Witten prepotential for E-string theory and global symmetries

We obtain Nekrasov-type expressions for the Seiberg-Witten prepotential for the six-dimensional (1,0) supersymmetric E-string theory compactified on T^2 with nontrivial Wilson lines. We consider compactification with four general Wilson line parameters, which partially break the E_8 global symmetry. In particular, we investigate in detail the cases where the Lie algebra of the unbroken global symmetry is E_n + A_{8-n} with n=8,7,6,5 or D_8. All our Nekrasov-type expressions can be viewed as special cases of the elliptic analogue of the Nekrasov partition function for the SU(N) gauge theory with N_f=2N flavors. We also present a new expression for the Seiberg-Witten curve for the E-string theory with four Wilson line parameters, clarifying the connection between the E-string theory and the SU(2) Seiberg-Witten theory with N_f=4 flavors.Comment: 22 pages. v2: comments and a reference added, version to appear in JHE

U(n) Spectral Covers from Decomposition

We construct decomposed spectral covers for bundles on elliptically fibered Calabi-Yau threefolds whose structure groups are S(U(1) x U(4)), S(U(2) x U(3)) and S(U(1) x U(1) x U(3)) in heterotic string compactifications. The decomposition requires not only the tuning of the SU(5) spectral covers but also the tuning of the complex structure moduli of the Calabi-Yau threefolds. This configuration is translated to geometric data on F-theory side. We find that the monodromy locus for two-cycles in K3 fibered Calabi-Yau fourfolds in a stable degeneration limit is globally factorized with squared factors under the decomposition conditions. This signals that the monodromy group is reduced and there is a U(1) symmetry in a low energy effective field theory. To support that, we explicitly check the reduction of a monodromy group in an appreciable region of the moduli space for an $E_6$ gauge theory with (1+2) decomposition. This may provide a systematic way for constructing F-theory models with U(1) symmetries.Comment: 41 pages, 14 figures; v2: minor improvements and a reference adde

Addressing accountability in highly autonomous virtual assistants

Building from a survey specifically developed to address the rising concerns of highly autonomous virtual assistants; this paper presents a multi-level taxonomy of accountability levels specifically adapted to virtual assistants in the context of Human-Human-Interaction (HHI). Based on research findings, the authors recommend the integration of the variable of accountability as capital in the development of future applications around highly automated systems. This element inserts a sense of balance in terms of integrity between users and developers enhancing trust in the interactive process. Ongoing work is being dedicated to further understand to which extent different contexts affect accountability in virtual assistants

Decompactifications and Massless D-Branes in Hybrid Models

A method of determining the mass spectrum of BPS D-branes in any phase limit of a gauged linear sigma model is introduced. A ring associated to monodromy is defined and one considers K-theory to be a module over this ring. A simple but interesting class of hybrid models with Landau-Ginzburg fibres over CPn are analyzed using special Kaehler geometry and D-brane probes. In some cases the hybrid limit is an infinite distance in moduli space and corresponds to a decompactification. In other cases the hybrid limit is at a finite distance and acquires massless D-branes. An example studied appears to correspond to a novel theory of supergravity with an SU(2) gauge symmetry where the gauge and gravitational couplings are necessarily tied to each other.Comment: PDF-LaTeX, 34 pages, 2 mps figure

Six-dimensional (1,0) effective action of F-theory via M-theory on Calabi-Yau threefolds

The six-dimensional effective action of F-theory compactified on a singular elliptically fibred Calabi-Yau threefold is determined by using an M-theory lift. The low-energy data are derived by comparing a circle reduction of a general six-dimensional (1,0) gauged supergravity theory with the effective action of M-theory on the resolved Calabi-Yau threefold. The derivation includes six-dimensional tensor multiplets for which the (anti-) self-duality constraints are imposed on the level of the five-dimensional action. The vector sector of the reduced theory is encoded by a non-standard potential due to the Green-Schwarz term in six dimensions. This Green-Schwarz term also contains higher curvature couplings which are considered to establish the full map between anomaly coefficients and geometry. F-/M-theory duality is exploited by moving to the five-dimensional Coulomb branch after circle reduction and integrating out massive vector multiplets and matter hypermultiplets. The associated fermions then generate additional Chern-Simons couplings at one-loop. Further couplings involving the graviphoton are induced by quantum corrections due to excited Kaluza-Klein modes. On the M-theory side integrating out massive fields corresponds to resolving the singularities of the Calabi-Yau threefold, and yields intriguing relations between six-dimensional anomalies and classical topology.Comment: 55 pages, v2: typos corrected, discussion of loop corrections improve

Latent cluster analysis of ALS phenotypes identifies prognostically differing groups

BACKGROUND Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a degenerative disease predominantly affecting motor neurons and manifesting as several different phenotypes. Whether these phenotypes correspond to different underlying disease processes is unknown. We used latent cluster analysis to identify groupings of clinical variables in an objective and unbiased way to improve phenotyping for clinical and research purposes. METHODS Latent class cluster analysis was applied to a large database consisting of 1467 records of people with ALS, using discrete variables which can be readily determined at the first clinic appointment. The model was tested for clinical relevance by survival analysis of the phenotypic groupings using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS The best model generated five distinct phenotypic classes that strongly predicted survival (p<0.0001). Eight variables were used for the latent class analysis, but a good estimate of the classification could be obtained using just two variables: site of first symptoms (bulbar or limb) and time from symptom onset to diagnosis (p<0.00001). CONCLUSION The five phenotypic classes identified using latent cluster analysis can predict prognosis. They could be used to stratify patients recruited into clinical trials and generating more homogeneous disease groups for genetic, proteomic and risk factor research