Deaths in people from Black, Asian and minority ethnic communities from both COVID-19 and non-COVID causes in the first weeks of the pandemic in London: a hospital case note review

Objective To undertake a case review of deaths in a 6-week period during the COVID-19 pandemic commencing with the first death in the hospital from COVID-19 on 12th of March 2020 and contrast this with the same period in 2019. Setting A large London teaching hospital. Participants Three groups were compared: group 1—COVID-19-associated deaths in the 6-week period (n=243), group 2—non-COVID deaths in the same period (n=136) and group 3—all deaths in a comparison period of the same 6 weeks in 2019 (n=194). Primary and secondary outcome measures This was a descriptive analysis of death case series review and as such no primary or secondary outcomes were pre-stipulated. Results Deaths in patients from the Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities in the pandemic period significantly increased both in the COVID-19 group (OR=2.43, 95% CI=1.60–3.68, p<0.001) and the non-COVID group (OR=1.76, 95% CI=1.09–2.83, p=0.02) during this time period and the increase was independent of differences in comorbidities, sex, age or deprivation. While the absolute number of deaths increased in 2020 compared with 2019, across all three groups the distribution of deaths by age was very similar. Our analyses confirm major risk factors for COVID-19 mortality including male sex, diabetes, having multiple comorbidities and background from the BAME communities. Conclusions There was no evidence of COVID-19 deaths occurring disproportionately in the elderly compared with non-COVID deaths in this period in 2020 and 2019. Deaths in the BAME communities were over-represented in both COVID-19 and non-COVID groups, highlighting the need for detailed research in order to fully understand the influence of ethnicity on susceptibility to illness, mortality and health-seeking behaviour during the pandemic

Maternal psychological distress in primary care and association with child behavioural outcomes at age three

Observational studies indicate children whose mothers have poor mental health are at increased risk of socio-emotional behavioural difficulties, but it is unknown whether these outcomes vary by the mothers’ mental health recognition and treatment status. To examine this question, we analysed linked longitudinal primary care and research data from 1078 women enrolled in the Born in Bradford cohort. A latent class analysis of treatment status and self-reported distress broadly categorised women as (a) not having a common mental disorder (CMD) that persisted through pregnancy and the first 2 years after delivery (N = 756, 70.1 %), (b) treated for CMD (N = 67, 6.2 %), or (c) untreated (N = 255, 23.7 %). Compared to children of mothers without CMD, 3-year-old children with mothers classified as having untreated CMD had higher standardised factor scores on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (d = 0.32), as did children with mothers classified as having treated CMD (d = 0.27). Results were only slightly attenuated in adjusted analyses. Children of mothers with CMD may be at risk for socio-emotional and behavioural difficulties. The development of effective treatments for CMD needs to be balanced by greater attempts to identify and treat women. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00787-015-0777-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Cost-effectiveness of recommended nurse staffing levels for short-stay skilled nursing facility patients

BACKGROUND: Among patients in skilled nursing facilities for post-acute care, increased registered nurse, total licensed staff, and nurse assistant staffing is associated with a decreased rate of hospital transfer for selected diagnoses. However, the cost-effectiveness of increasing staffing to recommended levels is unknown. METHODS: Using a Markov cohort simulation, we estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of recommended staffing versus median staffing in patients admitted to skilled nursing facilities for post-acute care. The outcomes of interest were life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The incremental cost-effectiveness of recommended staffing versus median staffing was $321,000 per discounted quality-adjusted life year gained. One-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the cost-effectiveness ratio was most sensitive to the likelihood of acute hospitalization from the nursing home. The cost-effectiveness ratio was also sensitive to the rapidity with which patients in the recommended staffing scenario recovered health-related quality of life as compared to the median staffing scenario. The cost-effectiveness ratio was not sensitive to other parameters. CONCLUSION: Adopting recommended nurse staffing for short-stay nursing home patients cannot be justified on the basis of decreased hospital transfer rates alone, except in facilities with high baseline hospital transfer rates. Increasing nurse staffing would be justified if health-related quality of life of nursing home patients improved substantially from greater nurse and nurse assistant presence

Anticipated impact of the 2009 Four Corners raid and arrests

Archaeological looting on United States federal land has been illegal for over a century. Regardless, the activity has continued in the Four Corners region. This paper discusses how the 1979 Archaeological Resources Protection Act (ARPA) can be viewed as sumptuary law, and within a sumptuary context, subversion can be anticipated. An analysis of 1986 and June 2009 federal raids in the Four Corners will exemplify this point by identifying local discourses found in newspapers both before and after each raid, which demonstrate a sumptuary effect. Ultimately, this paper concludes that looting just adapted, rather than halted, after each federal raid and that understanding this social context of continued local justification and validation of illegal digging is a potential asset for cultural resource protection

Macroscopic coherent structures in a stochastic neural network: from interface dynamics to coarse-grained bifurcation analysis

We study coarse pattern formation in a cellular automaton modelling a spatially-extended stochastic neural network. The model, originally proposed by Gong and Robinson (Phys Rev E 85(5):055,101(R), 2012), is known to support stationary and travelling bumps of localised activity. We pose the model on a ring and study the existence and stability of these patterns in various limits using a combination of analytical and numerical techniques. In a purely deterministic version of the model, posed on a continuum, we construct bumps and travelling waves analytically using standard interface methods from neural field theory. In a stochastic version with Heaviside firing rate, we construct approximate analytical probability mass functions associated with bumps and travelling waves. In the full stochastic model posed on a discrete lattice, where a coarse analytic description is unavailable, we compute patterns and their linear stability using equation-free methods. The lifting procedure used in the coarse time-stepper is informed by the analysis in the deterministic and stochastic limits. In all settings, we identify the synaptic profile as a mesoscopic variable, and the width of the corresponding activity set as a macroscopic variable. Stationary and travelling bumps have similar meso- and macroscopic profiles, but different microscopic structure, hence we propose lifting operators which use microscopic motifs to disambiguate them. We provide numerical evidence that waves are supported by a combination of high synaptic gain and long refractory times, while meandering bumps are elicited by short refractory times

Genetic and Structural Basis for Selection of a Ubiquitous T Cell Receptor Deployed in Epstein-Barr Virus Infection

Despite the ∼1018 αβ T cell receptor (TCR) structures that can be randomly manufactured by the human thymus, some surface more frequently than others. The pinnacles of this distortion are public TCRs, which exhibit amino acid-identical structures across different individuals. Public TCRs are thought to result from both recombinatorial bias and antigen-driven selection, but the mechanisms that underlie inter-individual TCR sharing are still largely theoretical. To examine this phenomenon at the atomic level, we solved the co-complex structure of one of the most widespread and numerically frequent public TCRs in the human population. The archetypal AS01 public TCR recognizes an immunodominant BMLF1 peptide, derived from the ubiquitous Epstein-Barr virus, bound to HLA-A*0201. The AS01 TCR was observed to dock in a diagonal fashion, grasping the solvent exposed peptide crest with two sets of complementarity-determining region (CDR) loops, and was fastened to the peptide and HLA-A*0201 platform with residue sets found only within TCR genes biased in the public response. Computer simulations of a random V(D)J recombination process demonstrated that both TCRα and TCRβ amino acid sequences could be manufactured easily, thereby explaining the prevalence of this receptor across different individuals. Interestingly, the AS01 TCR was encoded largely by germline DNA, indicating that the TCR loci already comprise gene segments that specifically recognize this ancient pathogen. Such pattern recognition receptor-like traits within the αβ TCR system further blur the boundaries between the adaptive and innate immune systems