A comparison between tests for changes in the adjustment coefficients in cointegrated systems

In this paper we examine several approaches to detecting changes in the adjustment coefficients in cointegrated VARs. We adopt recursive and rolling techniques as mis-specification tests for the detection of non-constancy and the estimation of the breakpoints. We find that inspection of the recursive eigenvalues is not useful to detect a break in the adjustment coefficients, whilst recursive estimation of the coefficients can only indicate non-constancy, but not the exact breakpoint. Rolling estimation is found to perform better in detecting non-constancy in the parameters and their true value after the breakpoint. However, it only detects a region where the break is likely to occur. To overcome the drawbacks of these techniques, we use an OLS-based sequential test. To assess its performance, we derive its critical values for different sample sizes. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the test has reasonably good power even in moderately sized samples and that it can be used as a graphical device, as it shows a kink at the breakpoint. As a benchmark we use the Kalman filter, of which we analyse the performance on the same data generating processes (DGP)

From Rocks to Amethysts: Combination Innovation to Increase Student Achievement in School

My final project at the International Center for Studies in Creativity applies the Torrance Incubation Model of Learning, Creative Problem Solving, Design Thinking, creativity scholar George Land’s Transformation Theory, and skills I have gained during my work on the MSc in Creativity. My work herein provides new and useful combination innovations that catalyze creative ways of analyzing, operating more successfully within, and improving upon current state, federal and district mandates and programs in public education. This project is middle school based. The core combination innovations are designed to assist school administrators, instructional coaches, and classroom educators in their daily work in middle schools, supporting them in taking mandated processes and practices, adding to these processes and practices elements from the field of creativity, and catalyzing new and improved, 21st century ready versions for immediate implementation in the school and classroom

Antinuclear antibodies (ANA) in chronic hepatitis C virus infection: correlates of positivity and clinical relevance.

We examined correlates of antinuclear antibody (ANA) positivity (ANA+) in individuals with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and the effect of positivity on clinical outcome of HCV. Pretreatment sera from 645 patients from three centres in Sweden (n = 225), the UK (n = 207) and Italy (n = 213) were evaluated by indirect immunofluorescence on Hep-2 cells for ANA pattern and titre by a single laboratory. Liver biopsies were all scored by one pathologist. A total of 258 patients were subsequently treated with interferon monotherapy. There was a significant difference in the prevalence of ANA (1:40) by geographic location: Lund 4.4%, London 8.7%, Padova 10.3% [odds ratio (OR) = 0.66; 95% CI: 0.46-0.94; P = 0.023]. Duration of HCV infection, age at infection, current age, route of infection, viral genotype, alcohol consumption, fibrosis stage and inflammatory score were not correlated with ANA+ or ANA pattern. Female gender was correlated with ANA+ and this association persisted in multivariable analyses (OR = 3.0; P = 0.002). Increased plasma cells were observed in the liver biopsies of ANA-positive individuals compared with ANA-negative individuals, while a trend towards decreased lymphoid aggregates was observed [hazard ratio (HR) = 9.0, P = 0.037; HR = 0.291, P = 0.118, respectively]. No correlations were observed between ANA positivity and nonresponse to therapy (OR = 1.4; P = 0.513), although ANA+ was correlated with faster rates of liver fibrosis, this was not statistically significant (OR = 1.8; P = 0.1452). Low titre ANA+ should not be a contraindication for interferon treatment. Our observation of increased plasma cells in ANA+ biopsies might suggest B-cell polyclonal activity with a secondary clinical manifestation of increased serum immunoglobulins

The ecology of seamounts: structure, function, and human impacts.

In this review of seamount ecology, we address a number of key scientific issues concerning the structure and function of benthic communities, human impacts, and seamount management and conservation. We consider whether community composition and diversity differ between seamounts and continental slopes, how important dispersal capabilities are in seamount connectivity, what environmental factors drive species composition and diversity, whether seamounts are centers of enhanced biological productivity, and whether they have unique trophic architecture. We discuss how vulnerable seamount communities are to fishing and mining, and how we can balance exploitation of resources and conservation of habitat. Despite considerable advances in recent years, there remain many questions about seamount ecosystems that need closer integration of molecular, oceanographic, and ecological research

A state of independents: rationalising the high <em>Z</em>\u27 crystal structures of shikimate esters

Zˈ is a parameter used to denote the number of symmetry-independent molecules in the asymmetric unit of a crystal structure. High Zˈ (&gt;1) crystal structures are relatively uncommon and are thought to arise through competition between intermolecular interactions of similar strength. As such high Zˈ crystal structures are challenging to predict, new examples are valuable in improving understanding in the field. Herein, we report the X-ray crystal structures of a series of shikimate esters, the asymmetric units of which exhibit high Zˈ values. Of special interest is the crystal structure of methyl shikimate, the asymmetric unit of which comprises 12 independent molecules; Zˈ = 12. This uncommonly large Zˈ value arises through a combination of factors, including the intrinsic homochirality of the molecule, the conformational inflexibility of the cyclohexene ring, the presence of multiple hydrogen bonding motifs, and both the cis- and trans-conformers of the ester moiety. Comparison of the X-ray crystal structures of shikimic acid, methyl shikimate, ethyl shikimate, and iso-propyl shikimate suggests that instances of high Zˈ in this series correlate with specific hydrogen bonding motifs influenced by the steric bulk of the ester. The results of this study provide important insights into factors that influence the formation of organic crystal structures where the value of Zˈ is greater than 1

Spread Supersymmetry

In the multiverse the scale of SUSY breaking, \tilde{m} = F_X/M_*, may scan and environmental constraints on the dark matter density may exclude a large range of \tilde{m} from the reheating temperature after inflation down to values that yield a LSP mass of order a TeV. After selection effects, the distribution for \tilde{m} may prefer larger values. A single environmental constraint from dark matter can then lead to multi-component dark matter, including both axions and the LSP, giving a TeV-scale LSP lighter than the corresponding value for single-component LSP dark matter. If SUSY breaking is mediated to the SM sector at order X^* X, only squarks, sleptons and one Higgs doublet acquire masses of order \tilde{m}. The gravitino mass is lighter by a factor of M_*/M_Pl and the gaugino masses are suppressed by a further loop factor. This Spread SUSY spectrum has two versions; the Higgsino masses are generated in one from supergravity giving a wino LSP and in the other radiatively giving a Higgsino LSP. The environmental restriction on dark matter fixes the LSP mass to the TeV domain, so that the squark and slepton masses are order 10^3 TeV and 10^6 TeV in these two schemes. We study the spectrum, dark matter and collider signals of these two versions of Spread SUSY. The Higgs is SM-like and lighter than 145 GeV; monochromatic photons in cosmic rays arise from dark matter annihilations in the halo; exotic short charged tracks occur at the LHC, at least for the wino LSP; and there are the eventual possibilities of direct detection of dark matter and detailed exploration of the TeV-scale states at a future linear collider. Gauge coupling unification is as in minimal SUSY theories. If SUSY breaking is mediated at order X, a much less hierarchical spectrum results---similar to that of the MSSM, but with the superpartner masses 1--2 orders of magnitude larger than in natural theories.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figure

Linking water quality to living resources in a mid-Atlantic lagoon system, USA

The mid-Atlantic coastal bays are shallow coastal lagoons, separated from the Atlantic Ocean by barrier sand islands with oceanic exchanges restricted to narrow inlets. The relatively poor flushing of these lagoon systems makes them susceptible to eutrophication resulting from anthropogenic nutrient loadings. An intensive water quality and seagrass monitoring program was initiated to track ecological changes in the Maryland and Virginia coastal bays. The purpose of this study was to analyze existing monitoring data to determine status and trends in eutrophication and to determine any associations between water quality and living resources. Analysis of monitoring program data revealed several trends: (1) decadal decreases in nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations, followed by recently increasing trends; (2) decadal increases in seagrass coverage, followed by a recent period of no change; (3) blooms of macroalgae and brown tide microalgae; and (4) exceedance of water quality thresholds: chlorophyll a (15 mu g/L), total nitrogen (0.65 mg/L or 46 mu mol/L), total phosphorus (0.037 mg/L or 1.2 mu mol/L), and dissolved oxygen (5 mg/L) in many areas within the Maryland coastal bays. The water quality thresholds were based on habitat requirements for living resources (seagrass and fish) and used to calculate a water quality index, which was used to compare the bay segments. Strong gradients in water quality were correlated to changes in seagrass coverage between segments. These factors indicate that these coastal bays are in a state of transition, with a suite of metrics indicating degrading conditions. Continued monitoring and intensified management will be required to avert exacerbation of the observed eutrophication trends. Coastal lagoons worldwide are experiencing similar degrading trends due to increasing human pressures, and assessing status and trends relative to biologically relevant thresholds can assist in determining monitoring and management priorities and goals

Skyrmions in a ferromagnetic Bose-Einstein condensate

The recently realized multicomponent Bose-Einstein condensates provide opportunities to explore the rich physics brought about by the spin degrees of freedom. For instance, we can study spin waves and phase separation, macroscopic quantum tunneling, Rabi oscillations, the coupling between spin gradients and superfluid flow, squeezed spin states, vortices and other topological excitations. Theoretically, there have been already some studies of the ground-state properties of these systems and their line-like vortex excitations. In analogy with nuclear physics or the quantum Hall effect, we explore here the possibility of observing point-like topological excitations or skyrmions. These are nontrivial spin textures that in principle can exist in a spinor Bose-Einstein condensate. In particular, we investigate the stability of skyrmions in a fictitious spin-1/2 condensate of Rb87 atoms. We find that skyrmions can exist in this case only as a metastable state, but with a lifetime of the order of, or even longer than, the typical lifetime of the condensate itself. In addition to determining the size and the lifetime of the skyrmion, we also present its spin texture and finally briefly consider its dynamical properties.Comment: 4 pages (REVtex), 3 PDF figures. See also cond-mat/000237