Analysis of uncertainty in health care cost-effectiveness studies: an introduction to statistical issues and methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis is now an integral part of health technology assessment and addresses the question of whether a new treatment or other health care program offers good value for money. In this paper we introduce the basic framework for decision making with cost-effectiveness data and then review recent developments in statistical methods for analysis of uncertainty when cost-effectiveness estimates are based on observed data from a clinical trial. Although much research has focused on methods for calculating confidence intervals for cost-effectiveness ratios using bootstrapping or Fieller’s method, these calculations can be problematic with a ratio-based statistic where numerator and=or denominator can be zero. We advocate plotting the joint density of cost and effect differences, together with cumulative density plots known as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) to summarize the overall value-for-money of interventions. We also outline the net-benefit formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem and show that it has particular advantages over the standard incremental cost-effectiveness ratio formulation

Genetic Economy in Picornaviruses: Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Replication Exploits Alternative Precursor Cleavage Pathways

The RNA genomes of picornaviruses are translated into single polyproteins which are subsequently cleaved into structural and non-structural protein products. For genetic economy, proteins and processing intermediates have evolved to perform distinct functions. The picornavirus precursor protein, P3, is cleaved to produce membrane-associated 3A, primer peptide 3B, protease 3Cpro and polymerase 3Dpol. Uniquely, foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) encodes three similar copies of 3B (3B1-3), thus providing a convenient natural system to explore the role(s) of 3B in the processing cascade. Using a replicon system, we confirmed by genetic deletion or functional inactivation that each copy of 3B appears to function independently to prime FMDV RNA replication. However, we also show that deletion of 3B3 prevents replication and that this could be reversed by introducing mutations at the C-terminus of 3B2 that restored the natural sequence at the 3B3-3C cleavage site. In vitro translation studies showed that precursors with 3B3 deleted were rapidly cleaved to produce 3CD but that no polymerase, 3Dpol, was detected. Complementation assays, using distinguishable replicons bearing different inactivating mutations, showed that replicons with mutations within 3Dpol could be recovered by 3Dpol derived from “helper” replicons (incorporating inactivation mutations in all three copies of 3B). However, complementation was not observed when the natural 3B-3C cleavage site was altered in the “helper” replicon, again suggesting that a processing abnormality at this position prevented the production of 3Dpol. When mutations affecting polyprotein processing were introduced into an infectious clone, viable viruses were recovered but these had acquired compensatory mutations in the 3B-3C cleavage site. These mutations were shown to restore the wild-type processing characteristics when analysed in an in vitro processing assay. Overall, this study demonstrates a dual functional role of the small primer peptide 3B3, further highlighting how picornaviruses increase genetic economy

Health-state utilities in a prisoner population : a cross-sectional survey

Background: Health-state utilities for prisoners have not been described. Methods: We used data from a 1996 cross-sectional survey of Australian prisoners (n = 734). Respondent-level SF-36 data was transformed into utility scores by both the SF-6D and Nichol's method. Socio-demographic and clinical predictors of SF-6D utility were assessed in univariate analyses and a multivariate general linear model. Results: The overall mean SF-6D utility was 0.725 (SD 0.119). When subdivided by various medical conditions, prisoner SF-6D utilities ranged from 0.620 for angina to 0.764 for those with none/mild depressive symptoms. Utilities derived by the Nichol's method were higher than SF-6D scores, often by more than 0.1. In multivariate analysis, significant independent predictors of worse utility included female gender, increasing age, increasing number of comorbidities and more severe depressive symptoms. Conclusion: The utilities presented may prove useful for future economic and decision models evaluating prison-based health programs

Structural changes in gill DNA reveal the effects of contaminants on Puget Sound fish.

Structural differences were identified in gill DNA from two groups of English sole collected from Puget Sound, Washington, in October 2000. One group was from the industrialized Duwamish River (DR) in Seattle and the other from relatively clean Quartermaster Harbor (QMH). Chemical markers of sediment contamination [e.g., polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)] established that the DR was substantially more contaminated than QMH. The levels of these chemicals in the sediments of both sites were consistent with levels of cytochrome P450 1A (CYP1A) expression in the gills of English sole from the same sites. Structural differences in gill DNA between the groups were evinced via statistical models of Fourier transform-infrared (FT-IR) spectra. Marked structural damage was found in the gill DNA of the DR fish as reflected in differences in base functional groups (e.g., C-O and NH2) and conformational properties (e.g., arising from perturbations in vertical base stacking interactions). These DNA differences were used to discriminate between the two fish groups through principal components analysis of mean FT-IR spectra. In addition, logistic regression analysis allowed for the development of a "DNA damage index" to assess the effects of contaminants on the gill. The evidence implies that environmental chemicals contribute to the DNA changes in the gill. The damaged DNA is a promising marker for identifying, through gill biopsies, contaminant effects on fish

Consolidated health economic evaluation reporting standards (CHEERS) statement

<p>Economic evaluations of health interventions pose a particular challenge for reporting. There is also a need to consolidate and update existing guidelines and promote their use in a user friendly manner. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement is an attempt to consolidate and update previous health economic evaluation guidelines efforts into one current, useful reporting guidance. The primary audiences for the CHEERS statement are researchers reporting economic evaluations and the editors and peer reviewers assessing them for publication.</p> <p>The need for new reporting guidance was identified by a survey of medical editors. A list of possible items based on a systematic review was created. A two round, modified Delphi panel consisting of representatives from academia, clinical practice, industry, government, and the editorial community was conducted. Out of 44 candidate items, 24 items and accompanying recommendations were developed. The recommendations are contained in a user friendly, 24 item checklist. A copy of the statement, accompanying checklist, and this report can be found on the ISPOR Health Economic Evaluations Publication Guidelines Task Force website (www.ispor.org/TaskForces/EconomicPubGuidelines.asp).</p> <p>We hope CHEERS will lead to better reporting, and ultimately, better health decisions. To facilitate dissemination and uptake, the CHEERS statement is being co-published across 10 health economics and medical journals. We encourage other journals and groups, to endorse CHEERS. The author team plans to review the checklist for an update in five years.</p&gt

Internet-Based Photoaging Within Australian Pharmacies to Promote Smoking Cessation: Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Tobacco smoking leads to death or disability and a drain on national resources. The literature suggests that cigarette smoking continues to be a major modifiable risk factor for a variety of diseases and that smokers aged 18-30 years are relatively resistant to antismoking messages due to their widely held belief that they will not be lifelong smokers. Objective: To conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a computer-generated photoaging intervention to promote smoking cessation among young adult smokers within a community pharmacy setting. Methods: A trial was designed with 80% power based on the effect size observed in a published pilot study; 160 subjects were recruited (80 allocated to the control group and 80 to the intervention group) from 8 metropolitan community pharmacies located around Perth city center in Western Australia. All participants received standardized smoking cessation advice. The intervention group participants were also digitally photoaged by using the Internet-based APRIL Face Aging software so they could preview images of themselves as a lifelong smoker and as a nonsmoker. Due to the nature of the intervention, the participants and researcher could not be blinded to the study. The main outcome measure was quit attempts at 6-month follow-up, both self-reported and biochemically validated through testing for carbon monoxide (CO), and nicotine dependence assessed via the Fagerström scale.Results: At 6-month follow-up, 5 of 80 control group participants (6.3%) suggested they had quit smoking, but only 1 of 80 control group participants (1.3%) consented to, and was confirmed by, CO validation. In the intervention group, 22 of 80 participants (27.5%) reported quitting, with 11 of 80 participants (13.8%) confirmed by CO testing. This difference in biochemically confirmed quit attempts was statistically significant (χ21=9.0, P=.003). A repeated measures analysis suggested the average intervention group smoking dependence score had also significantly dropped compared to control participants (P<.001). These differences remained statistically significant after adjustment for small differences in gender distribution and nicotine dependence between the groups. The mean cost of implementing the intervention was estimated at AU $5.79 per participant. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was AU$46 per additional quitter. The mean cost that participants indicated they were willing to pay for the digital aging service was AU $20.25 (SD 15.32). Conclusions: Demonstrating the detrimental effects on facial physical appearance by using a computer-generated simulation may be both effective and cost-effective at persuading young adult smokers to quit

The costs of preventing and treating chagas disease in Colombia

Background: The objective of this study is to report the costs of Chagas disease in Colombia, in terms of vector disease control programmes and the costs of providing care to chronic Chagas disease patients with cardiomyopathy. Methods: Data were collected from Colombia in 2004. A retrospective review of costs for vector control programmes carried out in rural areas included 3,084 houses surveyed for infestation with triatomine bugs and 3,305 houses sprayed with insecticide. A total of 63 patient records from 3 different hospitals were selected for a retrospective review of resource use. Consensus methodology with local experts was used to estimate care seeking behaviour and to complement observed data on utilisation. Findings: The mean cost per house per entomological survey was $4.4 (in US$ of 2004), whereas the mean cost of spraying a house with insecticide was $27. The main cost driver of spraying was the price of the insecticide, which varied greatly. Treatment of a chronic Chagas disease patient costs between$46.4 and $7,981 per year in Colombia, depending on severity and the level of care used. Combining cost and utilisation estimates the expected cost of treatment per patient-year is$1,028, whereas lifetime costs averaged $11,619 per patient. Chronic Chagas disease patients have limited access to healthcare, with an estimated 22% of patients never seeking care. Conclusion: Chagas disease is a preventable condition that affects mostly poor populations living in rural areas. The mean costs of surveying houses for infestation and spraying infested houses were low in comparison to other studies and in line with treatment costs. Care seeking behaviour and the type of insurance affiliation seem to play a role in the facilities and type of care that patients use, thus raising concerns about equitable access to care. Preventing Chagas disease in Colombia would be cost-effective and could contribute to prevent inequalities in health and healthcare.Wellcome Trus

Assessing methods for dealing with treatment switching in clinical trials: A follow-up simulation study

When patients randomised to the control group of a randomised controlled trial are allowed to switch onto the experimental treatment, intention-to-treat analyses of the treatment effect are confounded because the separation of randomised groups is lost. Previous research has investigated statistical methods that aim to estimate the treatment effect that would have been observed had this treatment switching not occurred and has demonstrated their performance in a limited set of scenarios. Here, we investigate these methods in a new range of realistic scenarios, allowing conclusions to be made based upon a broader evidence base. We simulated randomised controlled trials incorporating prognosis-related treatment switching and investigated the impact of sample size, reduced switching proportions, disease severity, and alternative data-generating models on the performance of adjustment methods, assessed through a comparison of bias, mean squared error, and coverage, related to the estimation of true restricted mean survival in the absence of switching in the control group. Rank preserving structural failure time models, inverse probability of censoring weights, and two-stage methods consistently produced less bias than the intentionto-treat analysis. The switching proportion was confirmed to be a key determinant of bias: sample size and censoring proportion were relatively less important. It is critical to determine the size of the treatment effect in terms of an acceleration factor (rather than a hazard ratio) to provide information on the likely bias associated with rank-preserving structural failure time model adjustments. In general, inverse probability of censoring weight methods are more volatile than other adjustment methods