Adding new experimental arms to randomised clinical trials: Impact on error rates

Background: Experimental treatments pass through various stages of development. If a treatment passes through early-phase experiments, the investigators may want to assess it in a late-phase randomised controlled trial. An efficient way to do this is adding it as a new research arm to an ongoing trial while the existing research arms continue, a so-called multi-arm platform trial. The familywise type I error rate is often a key quantity of interest in any multi-arm platform trial. We set out to clarify how it should be calculated when new arms are added to a trial some time after it has started. / Methods: We show how the familywise type I error rate, any-pair and all-pairs powers can be calculated when a new arm is added to a platform trial. We extend the Dunnett probability and derive analytical formulae for the correlation between the test statistics of the existing pairwise comparison and that of the newly added arm. We also verify our analytical derivation via simulations. / Results: Our results indicate that the familywise type I error rate depends on the shared control arm information (i.e. individuals in continuous and binary outcomes and primary outcome events in time-to-event outcomes) from the common control arm patients and the allocation ratio. The familywise type I error rate is driven more by the number of pairwise comparisons and the corresponding (pairwise) type I error rates than by the timing of the addition of the new arms. The familywise type I error rate can be estimated using Šidák’s correction if the correlation between the test statistics of pairwise comparisons is less than 0.30. / Conclusions: The findings we present in this article can be used to design trials with pre-planned deferred arms or to add new pairwise comparisons within an ongoing platform trial where control of the pairwise error rate or familywise type I error rate (for a subset of pairwise comparisons) is required

Systemic therapy for vulval Erosive Lichen Planus (the 'hELP' trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Erosive lichen planus affecting the vulva (ELPV) is a relatively rare, chronic condition causing painful raw areas in the vulvovaginal region. Symptoms are pain and burning, which impact upon daily living. There is paucity of evidence regarding therapy. A 2012 Cochrane systematic review found no randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in this field. Topically administered corticosteroids are the accepted first-line therapy: however, there is uncertainty as to which second-line treatments to use. Several systemic agents have been clinically noted to show promise for ELPV refractory to topically administered corticosteroids but there is no RCT evidence to support these. The 'hELP' study is a RCT with an internal pilot phase designed to provide high-quality evidence. METHODS/DESIGN: The objective is to test whether systemic therapy in addition to standard topical therapy is a beneficial second-line treatment for ELPV. Adjunctive systemic therapies used are hydroxychloroquine, methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil and prednisolone. Topical therapy plus a short course of prednisolone given orally is considered the comparator intervention. The trial is a four-armed, open-label, pragmatic RCT which uses a blinded independent clinical assessor. To provide 80 % power for each comparison, 96 participants are required in total. The pilot phase aims to recruit 40 participants. The primary clinical outcome is the proportion of patients achieving treatment success at 6 months. 'Success' is defined by a composite measure of Patient Global Assessment score of 0 or 1 on a 4-point scale plus improvement from baseline on clinical photographs scored by a clinician blinded to treatment allocation. Secondary clinical outcomes include 6-month assessment of: (1) Reduction in pain/soreness; (2) Global assessment of disease; (3) Response at other affected mucosal sites; (4) Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores; (5) Sexual function; (6) Health-related quality of life using 'Short Form 36' and 'Skindex-29' questionnaires; (7) Days of topical steroid use; (8) Treatment satisfaction; (9) Discontinuation of medications due to treatment failure; (10) Per participant cost of intervention in each treatment group. Adverse events will also be reported. DISCUSSION: 'hELP' is the first RCT to address second-line treatment of ELPV. The trial has encountered unique methodological challenges and has required collaborative efforts of the UK Dermatology Clinical Trials Network alongside expert clinicians. TRIAL REGISTRATION: CURRENT CONTROLLED TRIALS: ISRCTN 81883379 . Date of registration 12 June 2014

Delivery of sTRAIL variants by MSCs in combination with cytotoxic drug treatment leads to p53-independent enhanced antitumor effects

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are able to infiltrate tumor tissues and thereby effectively deliver gene therapeutic payloads. Here, we engineered murine MSCs (mMSCs) to express a secreted form of the TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), which is a potent inducer of apoptosis in tumor cells, and tested these MSCs, termed MSC.sTRAIL, in combination with conventional chemotherapeutic drug treatment in colon cancer models. When we pretreated human colorectal cancer HCT116 cells with low doses of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and added MSC.sTRAIL, we found significantly increased apoptosis as compared with single-agent treatment. Moreover, HCT116 xenografts, which were cotreated with 5-FU and systemically delivered MSC.sTRAIL, went into remission. Noteworthy, this effect was protein 53 (p53) independent and was mediated by TRAIL-receptor 2 (TRAIL-R2) upregulation, demonstrating the applicability of this approach in p53-defective tumors. Consequently, when we generated MSCs that secreted TRAIL-R2-specific variants of soluble TRAIL (sTRAIL), we found that such engineered MSCs, labeled MSC.sTRAIL DR5, had enhanced antitumor activity in combination with 5-FU when compared with MSC.sTRAIL. In contrast, TRAIL-resistant pancreatic carcinoma PancTu1 cells responded better to MSC.sTRAIL DR4 when the antiapoptotic protein XIAP (X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein) was silenced concomitantly. Taken together, our results demonstrate that TRAIL-receptor selective variants can potentially enhance the therapeutic efficacy of MSC-delivered TRAIL as part of individualized and tumor-specific combination treatments. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited All rights reserved

Type I error rates of multi-arm multi-stage clinical trials: strong control and impact of intermediate outcomes

BACKGROUND: The multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) design described by Royston et al. [Stat Med. 2003;22(14):2239-56 and Trials. 2011;12:81] can accelerate treatment evaluation by comparing multiple treatments with a control in a single trial and stopping recruitment to arms not showing sufficient promise during the course of the study. To increase efficiency further, interim assessments can be based on an intermediate outcome (I) that is observed earlier than the definitive outcome (D) of the study. Two measures of type I error rate are often of interest in a MAMS trial. Pairwise type I error rate (PWER) is the probability of recommending an ineffective treatment at the end of the study regardless of other experimental arms in the trial. Familywise type I error rate (FWER) is the probability of recommending at least one ineffective treatment and is often of greater interest in a study with more than one experimental arm. METHODS: We demonstrate how to calculate the PWER and FWER when the I and D outcomes in a MAMS design differ. We explore how each measure varies with respect to the underlying treatment effect on I and show how to control the type I error rate under any scenario. We conclude by applying the methods to estimate the maximum type I error rate of an ongoing MAMS study and show how the design might have looked had it controlled the FWER under any scenario. RESULTS: The PWER and FWER converge to their maximum values as the effectiveness of the experimental arms on I increases. We show that both measures can be controlled under any scenario by setting the pairwise significance level in the final stage of the study to the target level. In an example, controlling the FWER is shown to increase considerably the size of the trial although it remains substantially more efficient than evaluating each new treatment in separate trials. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed methods allow the PWER and FWER to be controlled in various MAMS designs, potentially increasing the uptake of the MAMS design in practice. The methods are also applicable in cases where the I and D outcomes are identical

Missing steps in a staircase: a qualitative study of the perspectives of key stakeholders on the use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Despite the promising benefits of adaptive designs (ADs), their routine use, especially in confirmatory trials, is lagging behind the prominence given to them in the statistical literature. Much of the previous research to understand barriers and potential facilitators to the use of ADs has been driven from a pharmaceutical drug development perspective, with little focus on trials in the public sector. In this paper, we explore key stakeholders’ experiences, perceptions and views on barriers and facilitators to the use of ADs in publicly funded confirmatory trials. Methods Semi-structured, in-depth interviews of key stakeholders in clinical trials research (CTU directors, funding board and panel members, statisticians, regulators, chief investigators, data monitoring committee members and health economists) were conducted through telephone or face-to-face sessions, predominantly in the UK. We purposively selected participants sequentially to optimise maximum variation in views and experiences. We employed the framework approach to analyse the qualitative data. Results We interviewed 27 participants. We found some of the perceived barriers to be: lack of knowledge and experience coupled with paucity of case studies, lack of applied training, degree of reluctance to use ADs, lack of bridge funding and time to support design work, lack of statistical expertise, some anxiety about the impact of early trial stopping on researchers’ employment contracts, lack of understanding of acceptable scope of ADs and when ADs are appropriate, and statistical and practical complexities. Reluctance to use ADs seemed to be influenced by: therapeutic area, unfamiliarity, concerns about their robustness in decision-making and acceptability of findings to change practice, perceived complexities and proposed type of AD, among others. Conclusions There are still considerable multifaceted, individual and organisational obstacles to be addressed to improve uptake, and successful implementation of ADs when appropriate. Nevertheless, inferred positive change in attitudes and receptiveness towards the appropriate use of ADs by public funders are supportive and are a stepping stone for the future utilisation of ADs by researchers

Innate recognition of apoptotic cells:novel apoptotic cell-associated molecular patterns revealed by crossreactivity of anti-LPS antibodies

Cells dying by apoptosis are normally cleared by phagocytes through mechanisms that can suppress inflammation and immunity. Molecules of the innate immune system, the pattern recognition receptors (PRRs), are able to interact not only with conserved structures on microbes (pathogen-associated molecular patterns, PAMPs) but also with ligands displayed by apoptotic cells. We reasoned that PRRs might therefore interact with structures on apoptotic cells-apoptotic cell-associated molecular patterns (ACAMPs)-that are analogous to PAMPs. Here we show that certain monoclonal antibodies raised against the prototypic PAMP, lipopolysaccharide (LPS), can crossreact with apoptotic cells. We demonstrate that one such antibody interacts with a constitutively expressed intracellular protein, laminin-binding protein, which translocates to the cell surface during apoptosis and can interact with cells expressing the prototypic PRR, mCD14 as well as with CD14-negative cells. Anti-LPS cross reactive epitopes on apoptotic cells colocalised with annexin V-and C1q-binding sites on vesicular regions of apoptotic cell surfaces and were released associated with apoptotic cell-derived microvesicles (MVs). These results confirm that apoptotic cells and microbes can interact with the immune system through common elements and suggest that anti-PAMP antibodies could be used strategically to characterise novel ACAMPs associated not only with apoptotic cells but also with derived MVs

TRAIL-receptor preferences in pancreatic cancer cells revisited: Both TRAIL-R1 and TRAIL-R2 have a licence to kill

Background TRAIL is a potent and specific inducer of apoptosis in tumour cells and therefore is a possible new cancer treatment. It triggers apoptosis by binding to its cognate, death-inducing receptors, TRAIL-R1 and TRAIL-R2. In order to increase its activity, receptor-specific ligands and agonistic antibodies have been developed and some cancer types, including pancreatic cancer, have been reported to respond preferentially to TRAIL-R1 triggering. The aim of the present study was to examine an array of TRAIL-receptor specific variants on a number of pancreatic cancer cells and test the generality of the concept of TRAIL-R1 preference in these cells. Methods TRAIL-R1 and TRAIL-R2 specific sTRAIL variants were designed and tested on a number of pancreatic cancer cells for their TRAIL-receptor preference. These sTRAIL variants were produced in HEK293 cells and were secreted into the medium. After having measured and normalised the different sTRAIL variant concentrations, they were applied to pancreatic and control cancer cells. Twenty-four hours later apoptosis was measured by DNA hypodiploidy assays. Furthermore, the specificities of the sTRAIL variants were validated in HCT116 cells that were silenced either for TRAIL-R1 or TRAIL-R2. Results Our results show that some pancreatic cancer cells use TRAIL-R1 to induce cell death, whereas other pancreatic carcinoma cells such as AsPC-1 and BxPC-3 cells trigger apoptosis via TRAIL-R2. This observation extended to cells that were naturally TRAIL-resistant and had to be sensitised by silencing of XIAP (Panc1 cells). The measurement of TRAIL-receptor expression by FACS revealed no correlation between receptor preferences and the relative levels of TRAIL-R1 and TRAIL-R2 on the cellular surface. Conclusions These results demonstrate that TRAIL-receptor preferences in pancreatic cancer cells are variable and that predictions according to cancer type are difficult and that determining factors to inform the optimal TRAIL-based treatments still have to be identified

Evidence-based Kernels: Fundamental Units of Behavioral Influence

This paper describes evidence-based kernels, fundamental units of behavioral influence that appear to underlie effective prevention and treatment for children, adults, and families. A kernel is a behavior–influence procedure shown through experimental analysis to affect a specific behavior and that is indivisible in the sense that removing any of its components would render it inert. Existing evidence shows that a variety of kernels can influence behavior in context, and some evidence suggests that frequent use or sufficient use of some kernels may produce longer lasting behavioral shifts. The analysis of kernels could contribute to an empirically based theory of behavioral influence, augment existing prevention or treatment efforts, facilitate the dissemination of effective prevention and treatment practices, clarify the active ingredients in existing interventions, and contribute to efficiently developing interventions that are more effective. Kernels involve one or more of the following mechanisms of behavior influence: reinforcement, altering antecedents, changing verbal relational responding, or changing physiological states directly. The paper describes 52 of these kernels, and details practical, theoretical, and research implications, including calling for a national database of kernels that influence human behavior