How the economics profession got it wrong on Brexit

Some of the most widely cited predictions of the economic effects of Brexit rely on flawed analysis, particularly of the performance of the UK after it joined the EEC, and on the link between trade and productivity, write Ken Coutts (left), Graham Gudgin (University of Cambridge) and Jordan Buchanan (right) (Ulster University Economic Policy Centre). In order to restore public confidence in economic forecasting for major policy issues, economists need to use more relevant analyses, based on a wider range of evidence

Cycle-centrality in complex networks

Networks are versatile representations of the interactions between entities in complex systems. Cycles on such networks represent feedback processes which play a central role in system dynamics. In this work, we introduce a measure of the importance of any individual cycle, as the fraction of the total information flow of the network passing through the cycle. This measure is computationally cheap, numerically well-conditioned, induces a centrality measure on arbitrary subgraphs and reduces to the eigenvector centrality on vertices. We demonstrate that this measure accurately reflects the impact of events on strategic ensembles of economic sectors, notably in the US economy. As a second example, we show that in the protein-interaction network of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana, a model based on cycle-centrality better accounts for pathogen activity than the state-of-art one. This translates into pathogen-targeted-proteins being concentrated in a small number of triads with high cycle-centrality. Algorithms for computing the centrality of cycles and subgraphs are available for download

World input-output network

Production systems, traditionally analyzed as almost independent national systems, are increasingly connected on a global scale. Only recently becoming available, the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) is one of the first efforts to construct the global multi-regional input-output (GMRIO) tables. By viewing the world input-output system as an interdependent network where the nodes are the individual industries in different economies and the edges are the monetary goods flows between industries, we analyze respectively the global, regional, and local network properties of the so-called world input-output network (WION) and document its evolution over time. At global level, we find that the industries are highly but asymmetrically connected, which implies that micro shocks can lead to macro fluctuations. At regional level, we find that the world production is still operated nationally or at most regionally as the communities detected are either individual economies or geographically well defined regions. Finally, at local level, for each industry we compare the network-based measures with the traditional methods of backward linkages. We find that the network-based measures such as PageRank centrality and community coreness measure can give valuable insights into identifying the key industries

Global value trees

The fragmentation of production across countries has become an important feature of the globalization in recent decades and is often conceptualized by the term “global value chains” (GVCs). When empirically investigating the GVCs, previous studies are mainly interested in knowing how global the GVCs are rather than how the GVCs look like. From a complex networks perspective, we use the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to study the evolution of the global production system. We find that the industry-level GVCs are indeed not chain-like but are better characterized by the tree topology. Hence, we compute the global value trees (GVTs) for all the industries available in the WIOD. Moreover, we compute an industry importance measure based on the GVTs and compare it with other network centrality measures. Finally, we discuss some future applications of the GVTs

Reconstruction of Demand Shocks in Input-Output Networks

Input-Output analysis describes the dependence of production, demand and trade between sectors and regions and allows to understand the propagation of economic shocks through economic networks. A central challenge in practical applications is the availability of data. Observations may be limited to the impact of the shocks in few sectors, but a complete picture of the origin and impacts would be highly desirable to guide political countermeasures. In this article we demonstrate that a shock in the final demand in few sectors can be fully reconstructed from limited observations of production changes. We adapt three algorithms from sparse signal recovery and evaluate their performance and their robustness to observation uncertainties.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, conference proceeding for CompleNet 202

Asymmetric vestibular evoked myogenic potentials in unilateral Menière patients

Vestibular evoked myogenic potentials (VEMPs) were measured in 22 unilateral Menière patients with monaural and binaural stimulation with 250 and 500 Hz tone bursts. For all measurement situations significantly lower VEMP amplitudes were on average measured at the affected side compared to the unaffected side. Unilateral Menière patients have, in contrast to normal subjects, asymmetric VEMPs, indicating a permanently affected vestibular (most likely otolith) system at the side of hearing loss. The diagnostic value of VEMP amplitude asymmetry measurement in individual patients is low, because of the large overlap of the VEMP amplitude asymmetry range for unilateral Menière patients with that for normal subjects

Prevention of febrile neutropenia: use of prophylactic antibiotics

Febrile neutropenia (FN) causes significant morbidity and mortality in patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy and can lead to reduced chemotherapy dose intensity and increased overall treatment costs. Antibiotic prophylaxis reduces the incidence of FN. Recent research and meta-analyses confirm that prophylactic fluoroquinolones decrease FN and infection-related mortality in patients with acute leukaemia and those receiving high-dose chemotherapy. Fluoroquinolone prophylaxis also lowers the incidence of FN and all-cause mortality following the first cycle of myelosuppressive chemotherapy for solid tumours. Levofloxacin has been the agent studied most thoroughly in this context. Although there is no convincing evidence that colonisation of individuals with resistant organisms due to antibiotic prophylaxis increases FN or mortality, such concerns must be taken seriously and the use of prophylaxis should be limited responsibly for patients with the greatest chance of benefit. Fluoroquinolone prophylaxis is well tolerated and cost-effective and should be offered to patients receiving chemotherapy for haematological malignancies and high-dose chemotherapy for solid tumours in which prolonged (>7 days) neutropenia is expected. It should also be considered for those receiving chemotherapy for solid tumours and lymphomas during the first cycle of chemotherapy when grade 4 neutropenia is anticipated

Catching-up in the global factory: analysis and policy implications

MNEs shape the location of activities in the world economy, linking diverse regions in what has been called the global factory. This study portrays the evolution of incomes and employment in the global factory using a quantitative input–output approach. We find emerging economies forging ahead relative to advanced economies in income derived from fabrication activities, handling the physical transformation process of goods. In contrast, convergence in income derived from knowledge-intensive activities carried out in pre- and post-fabrication stages is much slower. We discuss possible barriers to catching-up and policy implications for emerging economies in developing innovation capabilities, stressing the pivotal role of MNEs

Identification and Characterisation of Pseudomonas 16S Ribosomal DNA from Ileal Biopsies of Children with Crohn's Disease

Molecular analysis of bacterial 16S rRNA genes has made a significant contribution to the identification and characterisation of bacterial flora in the human gut. In particular, this methodology has helped characterise bacterial families implicated in the aetiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). In this study we have used a genus specific bacterial 16S PCR to investigate the prevalence and diversity of Pseudomonas species derived from the ileum of children with Crohn's disease (CD), and from control children with non-inflammatory bowel disease (non-IBD) undergoing their initial endoscopic examination. Fifty eight percent of CD patients (18/32) were positive using the Pseudomonas PCR, while significantly fewer children in the non-IBD group, 33% (12/36), were PCR positive for Pseudomonas (p<0.05, Fischer's exact test). Pseudomonas specific 16S PCR products from 13 CD and 12 non-IBD children were cloned and sequenced. Five hundred and eighty one sequences were generated and used for the comparative analysis of Pseudomonas diversity between CD and non-IBD patients. Pseudomonas species were less diverse in CD patients compared with non-IBD patients. In particular P.aeruginosa was only identified in non-IBD patients