Modelling the impact of climate change on Tanzanian forests

This research article was published by Wiley Online Library in 2020Aim: Climate change is pressing extra strain on the already degraded forest eco system in Tanzania. However, it is mostly unknown how climate change will affect the distribution of forests in the future. We aimed to model the impacts of climate change on natural forests to help inform national-level conservation and mitigation strategies. Location: Tanzania. Methods: We conducted maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to simulate forest habitat suitability using the Tanzanian national forest inventory survey (1,307 oc currences) and environmental data. Changes in forest habitats were simulated under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2055 and 2085. Results: The results indicate that climate change will threaten forest communities, especially fragmented strips of montane forests. Even under optimistic emission scenario, the extent of montane forest is projected to almost halve by 2085, inter secting many biodiversity hotspots across the Eastern Arc Mountains. Similarly, cli mate change is predicted to threaten microhabitat forests (i.e. thickets), with losses exceeding 70% by 2085 (RCP8.5). Other forest habitats are predicted to decrease (lowland forest and woodland) representing essential ecological networks, whereas suitable habitats for carbon-rich mangroves are predicted to expand by more than 40% at both scenarios. Conclusions: Climate change will impact forests by accelerating habitat loss, and fragmentation and the remaining land suitable for forests will also be subject to pres sures associated with rising demand for food and biofuels. These changes are likely to increase the probability of adverse impacts to the country's indigenous flora and fauna. Our findings, therefore, call for a shift in conservation efforts, focusing on (i) the enhanced management of existing protected areas that can absorb the impacts of future climate change, and (ii) expanding conservation efforts into newly suitable regions through effective land use planning and land reclamation, helping to preserve and enhance forest connectivity between fragmented patches

Sowing the seeds of sustainable rural livelihoods? An assessment of Participatory Forest Management through REDD+ in Tanzania

Participatory forest management (PFM) initiatives have emerged worldwide for a range of aims including to improve forest governance, enhance resource conservation and to increase rural people’s access to and benefits from forest resources. Some of these initiatives have also received climate finance support to enhance their impact on mitigation. However, their effects on forest governance and livelihoods are complex and remain poorly studied. In this article, we address this gap by analysing governance and livelihood changes in a PFM initiative in Tanzania that has received funding as a REDD+ pilot site. Based on qualitative governance analysis and quantitative livelihood panel data (2011–2014) that compares villages and households within and outside the project, we find that improvements to forest governance are substantial in project villages compared to control villages, while changes in income have been important but statistically insignificant, and driven by a regional sesame cash crop boom unrelated to enhanced forestry revenues. Focusing on whether PFM had enhanced other wealth indicators including household conditions and durable assets, our analysis shows again no significant differences between participant and control villages, although the participant villages do have, on average, a greater level of durable assets. Overall, our findings are positive regarding forest governance improvements but inconclusive regarding livelihood effects, which at least in the short term seem to benefit more from agricultural intensification than forestry activities, whose benefits might become more apparent over a longer time period. In conclusion we emphasize the need for moving towards longer term monitoring efforts, improving understandings of local dynamics of change, particularly at a regional rather than community level, and defining the most appropriate outcome variables and cost-effective systems of data collection or optimization of existing datasets if we are to better capture the complex impacts of PFM initiatives worldwide