Association of Over-The-Counter Pharmaceutical Sales with Influenza-Like-Illnesses to Patient Volume in an Urgent Care Setting

We studied the association between OTC pharmaceutical sales and volume of patients with influenza-like-illnesses (ILI) at an urgent care center over one year. OTC pharmaceutical sales explain 36% of the variance in the patient volume, and each standard deviation increase is associated with 4.7 more patient visits to the urgent care center (p<0.0001). Cross-correlation function analysis demonstrated that OTC pharmaceutical sales are significantly associated with patient volume during non-flu season (p<0.0001), but only the sales of cough and cold (p<0.0001) and thermometer (p<0.0001) categories were significant during flu season with a lag of two and one days, respectively. Our study is the first study to demonstrate and measure the relationship between OTC pharmaceutical sales and urgent care center patient volume, and presents strong evidence that OTC sales predict urgent care center patient volume year round. © 2013 Liu et al

Exome sequencing reveals a high genetic heterogeneity on familial Hirschsprung disease

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Time series modeling for syndromic surveillance

BACKGROUND: Emergency department (ED) based syndromic surveillance systems identify abnormally high visit rates that may be an early signal of a bioterrorist attack. For example, an anthrax outbreak might first be detectable as an unusual increase in the number of patients reporting to the ED with respiratory symptoms. Reliably identifying these abnormal visit patterns requires a good understanding of the normal patterns of healthcare usage. Unfortunately, systematic methods for determining the expected number of (ED) visits on a particular day have not yet been well established. We present here a generalized methodology for developing models of expected ED visit rates. METHODS: Using time-series methods, we developed robust models of ED utilization for the purpose of defining expected visit rates. The models were based on nearly a decade of historical data at a major metropolitan academic, tertiary care pediatric emergency department. The historical data were fit using trimmed-mean seasonal models, and additional models were fit with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) residuals to account for recent trends in the data. The detection capabilities of the model were tested with simulated outbreaks. RESULTS: Models were built both for overall visits and for respiratory-related visits, classified according to the chief complaint recorded at the beginning of each visit. The mean absolute percentage error of the ARIMA models was 9.37% for overall visits and 27.54% for respiratory visits. A simple detection system based on the ARIMA model of overall visits was able to detect 7-day-long simulated outbreaks of 30 visits per day with 100% sensitivity and 97% specificity. Sensitivity decreased with outbreak size, dropping to 94% for outbreaks of 20 visits per day, and 57% for 10 visits per day, all while maintaining a 97% benchmark specificity. CONCLUSIONS: Time series methods applied to historical ED utilization data are an important tool for syndromic surveillance. Accurate forecasting of emergency department total utilization as well as the rates of particular syndromes is possible. The multiple models in the system account for both long-term and recent trends, and an integrated alarms strategy combining these two perspectives may provide a more complete picture to public health authorities. The systematic methodology described here can be generalized to other healthcare settings to develop automated surveillance systems capable of detecting anomalies in disease patterns and healthcare utilization

Development and Evaluation of a New Lateral Flow Immunoassay for Serodiagnosis of Human Fasciolosis

Fasciolosis is an important plant-borne trematode zoonosis. This disease is of both clinical and veterinary relevance and, according to the WHO, is considered a re-emerging disease that is spreading around the world. Fasciolosis has a serious impact on health because of the large size of the parasite and the effects of the parasite in down-regulating the host immune response. Human fasciolosis can be distinguished by an acute phase, in which the parasite migrates through different tissues, and a chronic phase in which it invades the bile ducts. Here we describe the development of a rapid, simple and inexpensive immunochromatographic diagnostic method, based on the use of a recombinant cathepsin L1 protein, which performs better than other more complex indirect methods, providing similar specificity and higher sensitivity. The simplicity of the method represents a great advantage for the intervention systems applied in different endemic areas by WHO, such as passive case finding (e.g. Vietnam) and selective treatment (e.g. Egypt). Because of its characteristics, the system can be applied to both phases of the disease, and in holo, meso and hyperendemic areas where point-of-care testing is required

Combining Free Text and Structured Electronic Medical Record Entries to Detect Acute Respiratory Infections

The electronic medical record (EMR) contains a rich source of information that could be harnessed for epidemic surveillance. We asked if structured EMR data could be coupled with computerized processing of free-text clinical entries to enhance detection of acute respiratory infections (ARI).A manual review of EMR records related to 15,377 outpatient visits uncovered 280 reference cases of ARI. We used logistic regression with backward elimination to determine which among candidate structured EMR parameters (diagnostic codes, vital signs and orders for tests, imaging and medications) contributed to the detection of those reference cases. We also developed a computerized free-text search to identify clinical notes documenting at least two non-negated ARI symptoms. We then used heuristics to build case-detection algorithms that best combined the retained structured EMR parameters with the results of the text analysis.An adjusted grouping of diagnostic codes identified reference ARI patients with a sensitivity of 79%, a specificity of 96% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 32%. Of the 21 additional structured clinical parameters considered, two contributed significantly to ARI detection: new prescriptions for cough remedies and elevations in body temperature to at least 38°C. Together with the diagnostic codes, these parameters increased detection sensitivity to 87%, but specificity and PPV declined to 95% and 25%, respectively. Adding text analysis increased sensitivity to 99%, but PPV dropped further to 14%. Algorithms that required satisfying both a query of structured EMR parameters as well as text analysis disclosed PPVs of 52-68% and retained sensitivities of 69-73%.Structured EMR parameters and free-text analyses can be combined into algorithms that can detect ARI cases with new levels of sensitivity or precision. These results highlight potential paths by which repurposed EMR information could facilitate the discovery of epidemics before they cause mass casualties

Using Ontario's "Telehealth" health telephone helpline as an early-warning system: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: The science of syndromic surveillance is still very much in its infancy. While a number of syndromic surveillance systems are being evaluated in the US, very few have had success thus far in predicting an infectious disease event. Furthermore, to date, the majority of syndromic surveillance systems have been based primarily in emergency department settings, with varying levels of enhancement from other data sources. While research has been done on the value of telephone helplines on health care use and patient satisfaction, very few projects have looked at using a telephone helpline as a source of data for syndromic surveillance, and none have been attempted in Canada. The notable exception to this statement has been in the UK where research using the national NHS Direct system as a syndromic surveillance tool has been conducted. METHODS/DESIGN: The purpose of our proposed study is to evaluate the effectiveness of Ontario's telephone nursing helpline system as a real-time syndromic surveillance system, and how its implementation, if successful, would have an impact on outbreak event detection in Ontario. Using data collected retrospectively, all "reasons for call" and assigned algorithms will be linked to a syndrome category. Using different analytic methods, normal thresholds for the different syndromes will be ascertained. This will allow for the evaluation of the system's sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. The next step will include the prospective monitoring of syndromic activity, both temporally and spatially. DISCUSSION: As this is a study protocol, there are currently no results to report. However, this study has been granted ethical approval, and is now being implemented. It is our hope that this syndromic surveillance system will display high sensitivity and specificity in detecting true outbreaks within Ontario, before they are detected by conventional surveillance systems. Future results will be published in peer-reviewed journals so as to contribute to the growing body of evidence on syndromic surveillance, while also providing an non US-centric perspective

Squamocin modulates histone H3 phosphorylation levels and induces G1 phase arrest and apoptosis in cancer cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Histone modifications in tumorigenesis are increasingly recognized as important epigenetic factors leading to cancer. Increased phosphorylation levels of histone H3 as a result of aurora B and pMSK1 overexpression were observed in various tumors. We selected <it>aurora B </it>and <it>MSK1 </it>as representatives for testing various compounds and drugs, and found that squamocin, a bis-tetrahydrofuran annonaceous acetogenin, exerted a potent effect on histone H3 phosphorylation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>GBM8401, Huh-7, and SW620 cells were incubated with 15, 30, and 60 μM squamocin for 24 h. The expressions of mRNA and proteins were analyzed by qRT-PCR and Western blotting, respectively. The cell viability was determined by an MTT assay. Cell cycle distribution and apoptotic cells were analyzed by flow cytometry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our results showed that squamocin inhibited the proliferation of GBM8401, Huh-7, and SW620 cells, arrested the cell cycle at the G₁phase, and activated both intrinsic and extrinsic pathways to apoptosis. In addition, we demonstrated that squamocin had the ability to modulate the phosphorylation levels of H3S10 (H3S10p) and H3S28 (H3S28p) in association with the downregulation of aurora B and pMSK1 expressions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study is the first to show that squamocin affects epigenetic alterations by modulating histone H3 phosphorylation at S10 and S28, providing a novel view of the antitumor mechanism of squamocin.</p

TAT-Mediated Transduction of MafA Protein In Utero Results in Enhanced Pancreatic Insulin Expression and Changes in Islet Morphology

Alongside Pdx1 and Beta2/NeuroD, the transcription factor MafA has been shown to be instrumental in the maintenance of the beta cell phenotype. Indeed, a combination of MafA, Pdx1 and Ngn3 (an upstream regulator of Beta2/NeuroD) was recently reported to lead to the effective reprogramming of acinar cells into insulin-producing beta cells. These experiments set the stage for the development of new strategies to address the impairment of glycemic control in diabetic patients. However, the clinical applicability of reprogramming in this context is deemed to be poor due to the need to use viral vehicles for the delivery of the above factors. Here we describe a recombinant transducible version of the MafA protein (TAT-MafA) that penetrates across cell membranes with an efficiency of 100% and binds to the insulin promoter in vitro. When injected in utero into living mouse embryos, TAT-MafA significantly up-regulates target genes and induces enhanced insulin production as well as cytoarchitectural changes consistent with faster islet maturation. As the latest addition to our armamentarium of transducible proteins (which already includes Pdx1 and Ngn3), the purification and characterization of a functional TAT-MafA protein opens the door to prospective therapeutic uses that circumvent the use of viral delivery. To our knowledge, this is also the first report on the use of protein transduction in utero