Are we heading towards a replicability crisis in energy efficiency research? A toolkit for improving the quality, transparency and replicability of energy efficiency impact evaluations

Several high-profile replication failures have called into question the reproducibility of results in medicine, neuroscience, genetics, psychology and economics (Camerer et al. 2016). A paper published in Science found that just one third of psychology studies could be replicated when the study was run for a second time (OSC 2015). To our knowledge, there have been no attempted replications of energy efficiency studies; so can we be confident that the estimated energy savings from policy initiatives like the European roll out of smart meters will be realised? Or that electric vehicles will reduce carbon emissions by predicted levels? Or is energy heading towards its own reproducibility crisis? Researchers call for the increased use of randomised control trials (RCTs) to evaluate energy efficiency policy and the introduction of protocols or guidelines for conducting experiments (Vine et al. 2014; Frederiks et al. 2016). However, no guidelines for increasing reproducibility have been proposed. Moreover, RCTs are just one method for causal analysis and RCTs cannot answer all important causal questions. This paper will outline research methods for improved impact assessment of energy efficiency policy, including RCTs, but also quasi-experiments and systematic reviews that go beyond the conclusions of single experiments. It will then present tools for increasing replicability: pre-registration of trials; pre-analysis plans; reporting standards; synthesis tools and; publication of datasets with computer code in data repositories. Based on work by our research group at the UCL Energy Institute, we recognize that not all of these tools (mostly from medical trials) provide ‘off-the-shelf’ models for energy efficiency evaluations, and so consider adaptations for energy research. Our aim is to stimulate discussion and get feedback from the research community at ECEEE so the toolkit can be developed and potentially adopted more widely

Earliest Triassic microbialites in the South China Block and other areas; controls on their growth and distribution

Earliest Triassic microbialites (ETMs) and inorganic carbonate crystal fans formed after the end-Permian mass extinction (ca. 251.4 Ma) within the basal Triassic Hindeodus parvus conodont zone. ETMs are distinguished from rarer, and more regional, subsequent Triassic microbialites. Large differences in ETMs between northern and southern areas of the South China block suggest geographic provinces, and ETMs are most abundant throughout the equatorial Tethys Ocean with further geographic variation. ETMs occur in shallow-marine shelves in a superanoxic stratified ocean and form the only widespread Phanerozoic microbialites with structures similar to those of the Cambro-Ordovician, and briefly after the latest Ordovician, Late Silurian and Late Devonian extinctions. ETMs disappeared long before the mid-Triassic biotic recovery, but it is not clear why, if they are interpreted as disaster taxa. In general, ETM occurrence suggests that microbially mediated calcification occurred where upwelled carbonate-rich anoxic waters mixed with warm aerated surface waters, forming regional dysoxia, so that extreme carbonate supersaturation and dysoxic conditions were both required for their growth. Long-term oceanic and atmospheric changes may have contributed to a trigger for ETM formation. In equatorial western Pangea, the earliest microbialites are late Early Triassic, but it is possible that ETMs could exist in western Pangea, if well-preserved earliest Triassic facies are discovered in future work

Evaluation of extra-virgin olive oils shelf life using an electronic tongue-chemometric approach

Physicochemical quality parameters, olfactory and gustatoryretronasal positive sensations of extra-virgin olive oils vary during storage leading to a decrease in the overall quality. Olive oil quality decline may prevent the compliance of olive oil quality with labeling and significantly reduce shelf life, resulting in important economic losses and negatively condition the consumer confidence. The feasibility of applying an electronic tongue to assess olive oils usual commercial light storage conditions and storage time was evaluated and compared with the discrimination potential of physicochemical or positive olfactory/gustatory sensorial parameters. Linear discriminant models, based on subsets of 58 electronic tongue sensor signals, selected by the meta-heuristic simulated annealing variable selection algorithm, allowed the correct classification of olive oils according to the light exposition conditions and/or storage time (sensitivities and specificities for leave-one-out cross-validation: 8296 %). The predictive performance of the E-tongue approach was further evaluated using an external independent dataset selected using the KennardStone algorithm and, in general, better classification rates (sensitivities and specificities for external dataset: 67100 %) were obtained compared to those achieved using physicochemical or sensorial data. So, the work carried out is a proof-of-principle that the proposed electrochemical device could be a practical and versatile tool for, in a single and fast electrochemical assay, successfully discriminate olive oils with different storage times and/or exposed to different light conditions.The authors acknowledge the financial support from the strategic funding of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit, from Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006984—Associate Laboratory LSRELCM funded by FEDER funds through COMPETE2020—Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalização (POCI)—and by national funds through FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia and under the strategic funding of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit. Nuno Rodrigues thanks FCT, POPH-QREN and FSE for the Ph.D. Grant (SFRH/BD/104038/2014).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Influence of Temperature on Coumarin 153 Fluorescence Kinetics

The influence of temperature varied in the range 183 K–323 K on the fluorescence quantum yield, fluorescence lifetime, absorption and emission transition moments and non-radiative deactivation rate was determined for the well known and largely used dye Coumarin 153, dissolved in 1-chloropropane. The Kennard-Stepanov relation connecting the absorption and emission spectra was used to check for the presence of more than one absorbing/emitting species and to investigate whether intramolecular vibrational redistribution completes in the C153 excited S1 state before the emission takes place. The emission spectrum corresponding to S1→S0 transition, was fitted at each temperature to the model function including the information on the dye vibrational modes coupling. In this way the displacement in equilibrium distance for the most active vibrational mode was determined for C153 in S1 and in S0. Using the temperature dependence of the fluorescence decay time and quantum yield, the non-radiative deactivation rate was determined. Its temperature dependence was compared to that calculated using the theoretical model with the most active vibrational mode displacement values taken from steady-state spectra analysis. The somewhat surprising dependence of the fluorescence decay time and quantum yield on temperature was related to non-trivial coupling between low-frequency vibrational modes of C153 in the excited and ground states

Preventive interventions in families with parental depression: children’s psychosocial symptoms and prosocial behaviour

The aim is to document the effectiveness of a preventive family intervention (Family Talk Intervention, FTI) and a brief psychoeducational discussion with parents (Let’s Talk about the Children, LT) on children’s psychosocial symptoms and prosocial behaviour in families with parental mood disorder, when the interventions are practiced in psychiatric services for adults in the finnish national health service. Patients with mood disorder were invited to participate with their families. Consenting families were randomized to the two intervention groups. The initial sample comprised 119 families and their children aged 8–16. Of these, 109 completed the interventions and the baseline evaluation. Mothers and fathers filled out questionnaires including standardized rating scales for children’s symptoms and prosocial behaviour at baseline and at 4, 10 and 18 months post-intervention. The final sample consisted of parental reports on 149 children with 83 complete data sets. Both interventions were effective in decreasing children’s emotional symptoms, anxiety, and marginally hyperactivity and in improving children’s prosocial behaviour. The FTI was more effective than the LT on emotional symptoms particularly immediately after the intervention, while the effect of the LT emerged after a longer interval. The study supports the effectiveness of both interventions in families with depressed parents. The FTI is applicable in cultural settings other than the USA. Our findings provide support for including preventive child mental health measures as part of psychiatric services for mentally ill parents

The number of tree species on Earth

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness

A Unique Carrier for Delivery of Therapeutic Compounds beyond the Blood-Brain Barrier

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic intervention in many neurological diseases is thwarted by the physical obstacle formed by the blood-brain barrier (BBB) that excludes most drugs from entering the brain from the blood. Thus, identifying efficacious modes of drug delivery to the brain remains a "holy grail" in molecular medicine and nanobiotechnology. Brain capillaries, that comprise the BBB, possess an endogenous receptor that ferries an iron-transport protein, termed p97 (melanotransferrin), across the BBB. Here, we explored the hypothesis that therapeutic drugs "piggybacked" as conjugates of p97 can be shuttled across the BBB for treatment of otherwise inoperable brain tumors. APPROACH: Human p97 was covalently linked with the chemotherapeutic agents paclitaxel (PTAX) or adriamycin (ADR) and following intravenous injection, measured their penetration into brain tissue and other organs using radiolabeled and fluorescent derivatives of the drugs. In order to establish efficacy of the conjugates, we used nude mouse models to assess p97-drug conjugate activity towards glioma and mammary tumors growing subcutaneously compared to those growing intracranially. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Bolus-injected p97-drug conjugates and unconjugated p97 traversed brain capillary endothelium within a few minutes and accumulated to 1-2% of the injected by 24 hours. Brain delivery with p97-drug conjugates was quantitatively 10 fold higher than with free drug controls. Furthermore, both free-ADR and p97-ADR conjugates equally inhibited the subcutaneous growth of gliomas growing outside the brain. Evocatively, only p97-ADR conjugates significantly prolonged the survival of animals bearing intracranial gliomas or mammary tumors when compared to similar cumulated doses of free-ADR. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides the initial proof of concept for p97 as a carrier capable of shuttling therapeutic levels of drugs from the blood to the brain for the treatment of neurological disorders, including classes of resident and metastatic brain tumors. It may be prudent, therefore, to consider implementation of this novel delivery platform in various clinical settings for therapeutic intervention in acute and chronic neurological diseases

Climatic controls of decomposition drive the global biogeography of forest-tree symbioses

The identity of the dominant root-associated microbial symbionts in a forest determines the ability of trees to access limiting nutrients from atmospheric or soil pools1,2, sequester carbon3,4 and withstand the effects of climate change5,6. Characterizing the global distribution of these symbioses and identifying the factors that control this distribution are thus integral to understanding the present and future functioning of forest ecosystems. Here we generate a spatially explicit global map of the symbiotic status of forests, using a database of over 1.1 million forest inventory plots that collectively contain over 28,000 tree species. Our analyses indicate that climate variables—in particular, climatically controlled variation in the rate of decomposition—are the primary drivers of the global distribution of major symbioses. We estimate that ectomycorrhizal trees, which represent only 2% of all plant species7, constitute approximately 60% of tree stems on Earth. Ectomycorrhizal symbiosis dominates forests in which seasonally cold and dry climates inhibit decomposition, and is the predominant form of symbiosis at high latitudes and elevation. By contrast, arbuscular mycorrhizal trees dominate in aseasonal, warm tropical forests, and occur with ectomycorrhizal trees in temperate biomes in which seasonally warm-and-wet climates enhance decomposition. Continental transitions between forests dominated by ectomycorrhizal or arbuscular mycorrhizal trees occur relatively abruptly along climate-driven decomposition gradients; these transitions are probably caused by positive feedback effects between plants and microorganisms. Symbiotic nitrogen fixers—which are insensitive to climatic controls on decomposition (compared with mycorrhizal fungi)—are most abundant in arid biomes with alkaline soils and high maximum temperatures. The climatically driven global symbiosis gradient that we document provides a spatially explicit quantitative understanding of microbial symbioses at the global scale, and demonstrates the critical role of microbial mutualisms in shaping the distribution of plant species