A decision support tool for health service re-design

Many of the outpatient services are currently only available in hospitals, however there are plans to provide some of these services alongside with General Practitioners. Consequently, General Practitioners could soon be based at polyclinics. These changes have caused a number of concerns to Hounslow Primary Care Trust (PCT). For example, which of the outpatient services are to be shifted from the hospital to the polyclinic? What are the current and expected future demands for these services? To tackle some of these concerns, the first phase of this project explores the set of specialties that are frequently visited in a sequence (using sequential association rules). The second phase develops an Excel based spreadsheet tool to compute the current and expected future demands for the selected specialties. From the sequential association rule algorithm, endocrinology and ophthalmology were found to be highly associated (i.e. frequently visited in a sequence), which means that these two specialties could easily be shifted from the hospital environment to the polyclinic. We illustrated the Excel based spreadsheet tool for endocrinology and ophthalmology, however, the model is generic enough to cope with other specialties, provided that the data are available

Quantum corrections and black hole spectroscopy

In the work \cite{BRM,RBE}, black hole spectroscopy has been successfully reproduced in the tunneling picture. As a result, the derived entropy spectrum of black hole in different gravity (including Einstein's gravity, Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet gravity and Ho\v{r}ava-Lifshitz gravity) are all evenly spaced, sharing the same forms as $S_n=n$, where physical process is only confined in the semiclassical framework. However, the real physical picture should go beyond the semiclassical approximation. In this case, the physical quantities would undergo higher-order quantum corrections, whose effect on different gravity shares in different forms. Motivated by these facts, in this paper we aim to observe how quantum corrections affect black hole spectroscopy in different gravity. The result shows that, in the presence of higher-order quantum corrections, black hole spectroscopy in different gravity still shares the same form as $S_n=n$, further confirming the entropy quantum is universal in the sense that it is not only independent of black hole parameters, but also independent of higher-order quantum corrections. This is a desiring result for the forthcoming quantum gravity theory.Comment: 14 pages, no figure, use JHEP3.cls. to be published in JHE

The validity of using ICD-9 codes and pharmacy records to identify patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background: Administrative data is often used to identify patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), yet the validity of this approach is unclear. We sought to develop a predictive model utilizing administrative data to accurately identify patients with COPD. Methods: Sequential logistic regression models were constructed using 9573 patients with postbronchodilator spirometry at two Veterans Affairs medical centers (2003-2007). COPD was defined as: 1) FEV1/FVC <0.70, and 2) FEV1/FVC < lower limits of normal. Model inputs included age, outpatient or inpatient COPD-related ICD-9 codes, and the number of metered does inhalers (MDI) prescribed over the one year prior to and one year post spirometry. Model performance was assessed using standard criteria. Results: 4564 of 9573 patients (47.7%) had an FEV1/FVC < 0.70. The presence of ≥1 outpatient COPD visit had a sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 67%; the AUC was 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.76). Adding the use of albuterol MDI increased the AUC of this model to 0.76 (95% CI 0.75-0.77) while the addition of ipratropium bromide MDI increased the AUC to 0.77 (95% CI 0.76-0.78). The best performing model included: ≥6 albuterol MDI, ≥3 ipratropium MDI, ≥1 outpatient ICD-9 code, ≥1 inpatient ICD-9 code, and age, achieving an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI 0.78-0.80). Conclusion: Commonly used definitions of COPD in observational studies misclassify the majority of patients as having COPD. Using multiple diagnostic codes in combination with pharmacy data improves the ability to accurately identify patients with COPD.Department of Veterans Affairs, Health Services Research and Development (DHA), American Lung Association (CI- 51755-N) awarded to DHA, the American Thoracic Society Fellow Career Development AwardPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/84155/1/Cooke - ICD9 validity in COPD.pd

SILAC-based proteomic quantification of chemoattractant-induced cytoskeleton dynamics on a second to minute timescale

Cytoskeletal dynamics during cell behaviours ranging from endocytosis and exocytosis to cell division and movement is controlled by a complex network of signalling pathways, the full details of which are as yet unresolved. Here we show that SILAC-based proteomic methods can be used to characterize the rapid chemoattractant-induced dynamic changes in the actin–myosin cytoskeleton and regulatory elements on a proteome-wide scale with a second to minute timescale resolution. This approach provides novel insights in the ensemble kinetics of key cytoskeletal constituents and association of known and novel identified binding proteins. We validate the proteomic data by detailed microscopy-based analysis of in vivo translocation dynamics for key signalling factors. This rapid large-scale proteomic approach may be applied to other situations where highly dynamic changes in complex cellular compartments are expected to play a key role

Identification and characterization of a novel non-structural protein of bluetongue virus

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is the causative agent of a major disease of livestock (bluetongue). For over two decades, it has been widely accepted that the 10 segments of the dsRNA genome of BTV encode for 7 structural and 3 non-structural proteins. The non-structural proteins (NS1, NS2, NS3/NS3a) play different key roles during the viral replication cycle. In this study we show that BTV expresses a fourth non-structural protein (that we designated NS4) encoded by an open reading frame in segment 9 overlapping the open reading frame encoding VP6. NS4 is 77–79 amino acid residues in length and highly conserved among several BTV serotypes/strains. NS4 was expressed early post-infection and localized in the nucleoli of BTV infected cells. By reverse genetics, we showed that NS4 is dispensable for BTV replication in vitro, both in mammalian and insect cells, and does not affect viral virulence in murine models of bluetongue infection. Interestingly, NS4 conferred a replication advantage to BTV-8, but not to BTV-1, in cells in an interferon (IFN)-induced antiviral state. However, the BTV-1 NS4 conferred a replication advantage both to a BTV-8 reassortant containing the entire segment 9 of BTV-1 and to a BTV-8 mutant with the NS4 identical to the homologous BTV-1 protein. Collectively, this study suggests that NS4 plays an important role in virus-host interaction and is one of the mechanisms played, at least by BTV-8, to counteract the antiviral response of the host. In addition, the distinct nucleolar localization of NS4, being expressed by a virus that replicates exclusively in the cytoplasm, offers new avenues to investigate the multiple roles played by the nucleolus in the biology of the cell

Accelerated Model Checking of Parametric Markov Chains

Parametric Markov chains occur quite naturally in various applications: they can be used for a conservative analysis of probabilistic systems (no matter how the parameter is chosen, the system works to specification); they can be used to find optimal settings for a parameter; they can be used to visualise the influence of system parameters; and they can be used to make it easy to adjust the analysis for the case that parameters change. Unfortunately, these advancements come at a cost: parametric model checking is---or rather was---often slow. To make the analysis of parametric Markov models scale, we need three ingredients: clever algorithms, the right data structure, and good engineering. Clever algorithms are often the main (or sole) selling point; and we face the trouble that this paper focuses on -- the latter ingredients to efficient model checking. Consequently, our easiest claim to fame is in the speed-up we have often realised when comparing to the state of the art

Light smoking at base-line predicts a higher mortality risk to women than to men; evidence from a cohort with long follow-up

BACKGROUND: There is conflicting evidence as to whether smoking is more harmful to women than to men. The UK Cotton Workers’ Cohort was recruited in the 1960s and contained a high proportion of men and women smokers who were well matched in terms of age, job and length of time in job. The cohort has been followed up for 42 years. METHODS: Mortality in the cohort was analysed using an individual relative survival method and Cox regression. Whether smoking, ascertained at baseline in the 1960s, was more hazardous to women than to men was examined by estimating the relative risk ratio women to men, smokers to never smoked, for light (1–14), medium (15–24), heavy (25+ cigarettes per day) and former smoking. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality relative risk ratios were 1.35 for light smoking at baseline (95% CI 1.07-1.70), 1.15 for medium smoking (95% CI 0.89-1.49) and 1.00 for heavy smoking (95% CI 0.63-1.61). Relative risk ratios for light smoking at baseline for circulatory system disease was 1.42 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.98) and for respiratory disease was 1.89 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.63). Heights of participants provided no explanation for the gender difference. CONCLUSIONS: Light smoking at baseline was shown to be significantly more hazardous to women than to men but the effect decreased as consumption increased indicating a dose response relationship. Heavy smoking was equally hazardous to both genders. This result may help explain the conflicting evidence seen elsewhere. However gender differences in smoking cessation may provide an alternative explanation

The Universal One-Loop Effective Action

We present the universal one-loop effective action for all operators of dimension up to six obtained by integrating out massive, non-degenerate multiplets. Our general expression may be applied to loops of heavy fermions or bosons, and has been checked against partial results available in the literature. The broad applicability of this approach simplifies one-loop matching from an ultraviolet model to a lower-energy effective field theory (EFT), a procedure which is now reduced to the evaluation of a combination of matrices in our universal expression, without any loop integrals to evaluate. We illustrate the relationship of our results to the Standard Model (SM) EFT, using as an example the supersymmetric stop and sbottom squark Lagrangian and extracting from our universal expression the Wilson coefficients of dimension-six operators composed of SM fields.Comment: 30 pages, v2 contains additional comments and corrects typos, version accepted for publication in JHE

Optogenetic stimulation of a hippocampal engram activates fear memory recall

A specific memory is thought to be encoded by a sparse population of neurons. These neurons can be tagged during learning for subsequent identification3 and manipulation. Moreover, their ablation or inactivation results in reduced memory expression, suggesting their necessity in mnemonic processes. However, the question of sufficiency remains: it is unclear whether it is possible to elicit the behavioural output of a specific memory by directly activating a population of neurons that was active during learning. Here we show in mice that optogenetic reactivation of hippocampal neurons activated during fear conditioning is sufficient to induce freezing behaviour. We labelled a population of hippocampal dentate gyrus neurons activated during fear learning with channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2) and later optically reactivated these neurons in a different context. The mice showed increased freezing only upon light stimulation, indicating light-induced fear memory recall. This freezing was not detected in non-fear-conditioned mice expressing ChR2 in a similar proportion of cells, nor in fear-conditioned mice with cells labelled by enhanced yellow fluorescent protein instead of ChR2. Finally, activation of cells labelled in a context not associated with fear did not evoke freezing in mice that were previously fear conditioned in a different context, suggesting that light-induced fear memory recall is context specific. Together, our findings indicate that activating a sparse but specific ensemble of hippocampal neurons that contribute to a memory engram is sufficient for the recall of that memory. Moreover, our experimental approach offers a general method of mapping cellular populations bearing memory engrams.RIKEN Brain Science InstituteNational Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant R01-MH078821)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant P50-MH58880

The effect of aclidinium bromide on daily respiratory symptoms of COPD, measured using the Evaluating Respiratory Symptoms in COPD (E-RS: COPD) diary: pooled analysis of two 6-month Phase III studies.

BACKGROUND: Reducing the severity of respiratory symptoms is a key goal in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We evaluated the effect of aclidinium bromide 400 μg twice daily (BID) on respiratory symptoms, assessed using the Evaluating Respiratory Symptoms in COPD (E-RS(™): COPD) scale (formerly EXACT-RS). METHODS: Data were pooled from the aclidinium 400 μg BID and placebo arms of two 24-week, double-blind, randomized Phase III studies evaluating aclidinium monotherapy (ATTAIN) or combination therapy (AUGMENT COPD I) in patients with moderate to severe airflow obstruction. Patients were stratified by Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) Groups A-D. Change from baseline in E-RS scores, proportion of responders (patients achieving pre-defined improvements in E-RS scores), and net benefit (patients who improved minus patients who worsened) were analyzed. RESULTS: Of 1210 patients, 1167 had data available for GOLD classification. Mean (standard deviation) age was 63.2 (8.6) years, 60.7 % were male, and mean post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s was 54.4 % predicted. Compared with placebo, aclidinium 400 μg BID significantly improved RS-Total (2.38 units vs 0.79 units, p < 0.001) and domain scores (all p < 0.001) at Week 24, and doubled the likelihood of being an RS-Total score responder (p < 0.05), irrespective of GOLD group. The net benefit for RS-Total (Overall: 56.9 % vs 19.4 %; A + C: 65.7 % vs 6.3 %; B + D: 56.0 % vs 20.8 %, for aclidinium 400 μg BID and placebo respectively; all p < 0.05) and domain scores (all p < 0.05) was significantly greater with aclidinium compared with placebo, in both GOLD Groups A + C and B + D. CONCLUSIONS: Aclidinium 400 μg BID significantly improved respiratory symptoms regardless of the patients' level of symptoms at baseline. Net treatment benefit was similar in patients with low or high levels of symptoms. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ATTAIN (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01001494 ) and AUGMENT COPD I (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01437397 )