Solving Nonlinear Parabolic Equations by a Strongly Implicit Finite-Difference Scheme

We discuss the numerical solution of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations, exhibiting finite speed of propagation, via a strongly implicit finite-difference scheme with formal truncation error $\mathcal{O}\left[(\Delta x)^2 + (\Delta t)^2 \right]$. Our application of interest is the spreading of viscous gravity currents in the study of which these type of differential equations arise. Viscous gravity currents are low Reynolds number (viscous forces dominate inertial forces) flow phenomena in which a dense, viscous fluid displaces a lighter (usually immiscible) fluid. The fluids may be confined by the sidewalls of a channel or propagate in an unconfined two-dimensional (or axisymmetric three-dimensional) geometry. Under the lubrication approximation, the mathematical description of the spreading of these fluids reduces to solving the so-called thin-film equation for the current's shape $h(x,t)$. To solve such nonlinear parabolic equations we propose a finite-difference scheme based on the Crank--Nicolson idea. We implement the scheme for problems involving a single spatial coordinate (i.e., two-dimensional, axisymmetric or spherically-symmetric three-dimensional currents) on an equispaced but staggered grid. We benchmark the scheme against analytical solutions and highlight its strong numerical stability by specifically considering the spreading of non-Newtonian power-law fluids in a variable-width confined channel-like geometry (a "Hele-Shaw cell") subject to a given mass conservation/balance constraint. We show that this constraint can be implemented by re-expressing it as nonlinear flux boundary conditions on the domain's endpoints. Then, we show numerically that the scheme achieves its full second-order accuracy in space and time. We also highlight through numerical simulations how the proposed scheme accurately respects the mass conservation/balance constraint.Comment: 36 pages, 9 figures, Springer book class; v2 includes improvements and corrections; to appear as a contribution in "Applied Wave Mathematics II

Acute WNT signalling activation perturbs differentiation within the adult stomach and rapidly leads to tumour formation

A role for WNT signalling in gastric carcinogenesis has been suggested due to two major observations. First, patients with germline mutations in adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) are susceptible to stomach polyps and second, in gastric cancer, WNT activation confers a poor prognosis. However, the functional significance of deregulated WNT signalling in gastric homoeostasis and cancer is still unclear. In this study we have addressed this by investigating the immediate effects of WNT signalling activation within the stomach epithelium. We have specifically activated the WNT signalling pathway within the mouse adult gastric epithelium via deletion of either glycogen synthase kinase 3 (GSK3) or APC or via expression of a constitutively active β-catenin protein. WNT pathway deregulation dramatically affects stomach homoeostasis at very short latencies. In the corpus, there is rapid loss of parietal cells with fundic gland polyp (FGP) formation and adenomatous change, which are similar to those observed in familial adenomatous polyposis. In the antrum, adenomas occur from 4 days post-WNT activation. Taken together, these data show a pivotal role for WNT signalling in gastric homoeostasis, FGP formation and adenomagenesis. Loss of the parietal cell population and corresponding FGP formation, an early event in gastric carcinogenesis, as well as antral adenoma formation are immediate effects of nuclear β-catenin translocation and WNT target gene expression. Furthermore, our inducible murine model will permit a better understanding of the molecular changes required to drive tumourigenesis in the stomach

Oral etoposide as a single agent in childhood and young adult cancer in England: Still a poorly evaluated palliative treatment

Background Oral etoposide is commonly used in palliative treatment of childhood and young adult cancer without robust evidence. We describe a national, unselected cohort of young people in England treated with oral etoposide using routinely collected, population-level data. Methods Patients aged under 25 years at cancer diagnosis (1995–2017) with a treatment record of single-agent oral etoposide in the Systemic AntiCancer Dataset (SACT, 2012–2018) were identified, linked to national cancer registry data using NHS number and followed to 5 January 2019. Overall survival (OS) was estimated for all tumours combined and by tumour group. A Cox model was applied accounting for age, sex, tumour type, prior and subsequent chemotherapy. Results Total 115 patients were identified during the study period. Mean age was 11.8 years at cancer diagnosis and 15.5 years at treatment with oral etoposide. Median OS was 5.5 months from the start of etoposide; 13 patients survived beyond 2 years. Survival was shortest in patients with osteosarcoma (median survival 3.6 months) and longest in CNS embryonal tumours (15.5 months). Across the cohort, a median of one cycle (range one to nine) of etoposide was delivered. OS correlated significantly with tumour type and prior chemotherapy, but not with other variables. Conclusions This report is the largest series to date of oral etoposide use in childhood and young adult cancer. Most patients treated in this real world setting died quickly. Despite decades of use, there are still no robust data demonstrating a clear benefit of oral etoposide for survival

Prospective validation of the 4C prognostic models for adults hospitalised with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol

Purpose: To prospectively validate two risk scores to predict mortality (4C Mortality) and in-hospital deterioration (4C Deterioration) among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. // Methods: Prospective observational cohort study of adults (age ≥18 years) with confirmed or highly suspected COVID-19 recruited into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study in 306 hospitals across England, Scotland and Wales. Patients were recruited between 27 August 2020 and 17 February 2021, with at least 4 weeks follow-up before final data extraction. The main outcome measures were discrimination and calibration of models for in-hospital deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) and mortality, incorporating predefined subgroups. // Results: 76 588 participants were included, of whom 27 352 (37.4%) deteriorated and 12 581 (17.4%) died. Both the 4C Mortality (0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)) and 4C Deterioration scores (pooled C-statistic 0.76 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.77)) demonstrated consistent discrimination across all nine National Health Service regions, with similar performance metrics to the original validation cohorts. Calibration remained stable (4C Mortality: pooled slope 1.09, pooled calibration-in-the-large 0.12; 4C Deterioration: 1.00, –0.04), with no need for temporal recalibration during the second UK pandemic wave of hospital admissions. // Conclusion: Both 4C risk stratification models demonstrate consistent performance to predict clinical deterioration and mortality in a large prospective second wave validation cohort of UK patients. Despite recent advances in the treatment and management of adults hospitalised with COVID-19, both scores can continue to inform clinical decision making

Vitamin D supplementation and breast cancer prevention : a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

In recent years, the scientific evidence linking vitamin D status or supplementation to breast cancer has grown notably. To investigate the role of vitamin D supplementation on breast cancer incidence, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing vitamin D with placebo or no treatment. We used OVID to search MEDLINE (R), EMBASE and CENTRAL until April 2012. We screened the reference lists of included studies and used the “Related Article” feature in PubMed to identify additional articles. No language restrictions were applied. Two reviewers independently extracted data on methodological quality, participants, intervention, comparison and outcomes. Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals for breast cancer were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 test. In sensitivity analysis, we assessed the impact of vitamin D dosage and mode of administration on treatment effects. Only two randomized controlled trials fulfilled the pre-set inclusion criteria. The pooled analysis included 5372 postmenopausal women. Overall, Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals were 1.11 and 0.74–1.68. We found no evidence of heterogeneity. Neither vitamin D dosage nor mode of administration significantly affected breast cancer risk. However, treatment efficacy was somewhat greater when vitamin D was administered at the highest dosage and in combination with calcium (Risk Ratio 0.58, 95% Confident Interval 0.23–1.47 and Risk Ratio 0.93, 95% Confident Interval 0.54–1.60, respectively). In conclusions, vitamin D use seems not to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer development in postmenopausal women. However, the available evidence is still limited and inadequate to draw firm conclusions. Study protocol code: FARM8L2B5L

Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London). FINDINGS: 74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model. INTERPRETATION: The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London

StopCOVID cohort : An observational study of 3,480 patients admitted to the Sechenov University hospital network in Moscow city for suspected COVID-19 infection

© 2020 Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Clinical Infectious Diseases following peer review. The version of record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1535.BACKGROUND: The epidemiology, clinical course, and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in the Russian population are unknown. Information on the differences between laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed COVID-19 in real-life settings is lacking. METHODS: We extracted data from the medical records of adult patients who were consecutively admitted for suspected COVID-19 infection in Moscow, between April 8 and May 28, 2020. RESULTS: Of the 4261 patients hospitalised for suspected COVID-19, outcomes were available for 3480 patients (median age 56 years (interquartile range 45-66). The commonest comorbidities were hypertension, obesity, chronic cardiac disease and diabetes. Half of the patients (n=1728) had a positive RT-PCR while 1748 were negative on RT-PCR but had clinical symptoms and characteristic CT signs suggestive of COVID-19 infection.No significant differences in frequency of symptoms, laboratory test results and risk factors for in-hospital mortality were found between those exclusively clinically diagnosed or with positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR.In a multivariable logistic regression model the following were associated with in-hospital mortality; older age (per 1 year increase) odds ratio [OR] 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 - 1.06); male sex (OR 1.71, 1.24 - 2.37); chronic kidney disease (OR 2.99, 1.89 - 4.64); diabetes (OR 2.1, 1.46 - 2.99); chronic cardiac disease (OR 1.78, 1.24 - 2.57) and dementia (OR 2.73, 1.34 - 5.47). CONCLUSIONS: Age, male sex, and chronic comorbidities were risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The combination of clinical features were sufficient to diagnoseCOVID-19 infection indicating that laboratory testing is not critical in real-life clinical practice.Peer reviewe

Search for astronomical neutrinos from blazar TXS 0506+056 in super-kamiokande

We report a search for astronomical neutrinos in the energy region from several GeV to TeV in the direction of the blazar TXS 0506+056 using the Super-Kamiokande detector following the detection of a 100 TeV neutrinos from the same location by the IceCube collaboration. Using Super-Kamiokande neutrino data across several data samples observed from 1996 April to 2018 February we have searched for both a total excess above known backgrounds across the entire period as well as localized excesses on smaller timescales in that interval. No significant excess nor significant variation in the observed event rate are found in the blazar direction. Upper limits are placed on the electron- and muon-neutrino fluxes at the 90% confidence level as 6.0 × 10−7 and 4.5 × 10−7–9.3 × 10−10 [erg cm−2 s−1], respectively

Gustatory Imagery Reveals Functional Connectivity from the Prefrontal to Insular Cortices Traced with Magnetoencephalography

Our experience and prejudice concerning food play an important role in modulating gustatory information processing; gustatory memory stored in the central nervous system influences gustatory information arising from the peripheral nervous system. We have elucidated the mechanism of the 'top-down" modulation of taste perception in humans using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and demonstrated that gustatory imagery is mediated by the prefrontal (PFC) and insular cortices (IC). However, the temporal order of activation of these brain regions during gustatory imagery is still an open issue. To explore the source of "top-down" signals during gustatory imagery tasks, we analyzed the temporal activation patterns of activated regions in the cerebral cortex using another non-invasive brain imaging technique, magnetoencephalography (MEG). Gustatory imagery tasks were presented by words (Letter G-V) or pictures (Picture G-V) of foods/beverages, and participants were requested to recall their taste. In the Letter G-V session, 7/9 (77.8%) participants showed activation in the IC with a latency of 401.7 +/- 34.7 ms (n = 7) from the onset of word exhibition. In 5/7 (71.4%) participants who exhibited IC activation, the PFC was activated prior to the IC at a latency of 315.2 +/- 56.5 ms (n = 5), which was significantly shorter than the latency to the IC activation. In the Picture G-V session, the IC was activated in 6/9 (66.7%) participants, and only 1/9 (11.1%) participants showed activation in the PFC. There was no significant dominance between the right and left IC or PFC during gustatory imagery. These results support those from our previous fMRI study in that the Letter G-V session rather than the Picture G-V session effectively activates the PFC and IC and strengthen the hypothesis that the PFC mediates "top-down" control of retrieving gustatory information from the storage of long-term memories and in turn activates the IC