Diverse Epidemiology of Leptospira Serovars Notified in New Zealand, 1999-2017

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Disturbance and diversity at two spatial scales

The spatial scale of disturbance is a factor potentially influencing the relationship between disturbance and diversity. There has been discussion on whether disturbances that affect local communities and create a mosaic of patches in different successional stages have the same effect on diversity as regional disturbances that affect the whole landscape. In a microcosm experiment with metacommunities of aquatic protists, we compared the effect of local and regional disturbances on the disturbance–diversity relationship. Local disturbances destroyed entire local communities of the metacommunity and required reimmigration from neighboring communities, while regional disturbances affected the whole metacommunity but left part of each local community intact. Both disturbance types led to a negative relationship between disturbance intensity and Shannon diversity. With strong local disturbance, this decrease in diversity was due to species loss, while strong regional disturbance had no effect on species richness but reduced the evenness of the community. Growth rate appeared to be the most important trait for survival after strong local disturbance and dominance after strong regional disturbance. The pattern of the disturbance–diversity relationship was similar for both local and regional diversity. Although local disturbances at least temporally increased beta diversity by creating a mosaic of differently disturbed patches, this high dissimilarity did not result in regional diversity being increased relative to local diversity. The disturbance–diversity relationship was negative for both scales of diversity. The flat competitive hierarchy and absence of a trade-off between competition and colonization ability are a likely explanation for this pattern

Early intervention with Bifidobacterium lactis NCC2818 modulates the host-microbe interface independent of the sustained changes induced by the neonatal environment

Inflammatory and metabolic diseases can originate during early-life and have been correlated with shifts in intestinal microbial ecology. Here we demonstrate that minor environmental fluctuations during the early neonatal period had sustained effects on the developing porcine microbiota and host-microbe interface. These inter-replicate effects appear to originate during the first day of life, and are likely to reflect very early microbiota acquisition from the environment. We statistically link early systemic inflammation with later local increases in inflammatory cytokine (IL-17) production, which could have important enteric health implications. Immunity, intestinal barrier function, host metabolism and host-microbiota co-metabolism were further modified by Bifidobacterium lactis NCC2818 supplementation, although composition of the in situ microbiota remained unchanged. Finally, our robust model identified novel, strong correlations between urinary metabolites (eg malonate, phenylacetylglycine, alanine) and mucosal immunoglobulin (IgM) and cytokine (IL-10, IL-4) production, thus providing the possibility of the development of urinary ‘dipstick’ tests to assess non-accessible mucosal immune development and identify early precursors (biomarkers) of disease. These results have important implications for infants exposed to neonatal factors including caesarean delivery, antibiotic therapy and delayed discharge from hospital environments, which may predispose to the development of inflammatory and metabolic diseases in later life

A quantitative systems pharmacology approach, incorporating a novel liver model, for predicting pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions

All pharmaceutical companies are required to assess pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) of new chemical entities (NCEs) and mathematical prediction helps to select the best NCE candidate with regard to adverse effects resulting from a DDI before any costly clinical studies. Most current models assume that the liver is a homogeneous organ where the majority of the metabolism occurs. However, the circulatory system of the liver has a complex hierarchical geometry which distributes xenobiotics throughout the organ. Nevertheless, the lobule (liver unit), located at the end of each branch, is composed of many sinusoids where the blood flow can vary and therefore creates heterogeneity (e.g. drug concentration, enzyme level). A liver model was constructed by describing the geometry of a lobule, where the blood velocity increases toward the central vein, and by modeling the exchange mechanisms between the blood and hepatocytes. Moreover, the three major DDI mechanisms of metabolic enzymes; competitive inhibition, mechanism based inhibition and induction, were accounted for with an undefined number of drugs and/or enzymes. The liver model was incorporated into a physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and simulations produced, that in turn were compared to ten clinical results. The liver model generated a hierarchy of 5 sinusoidal levels and estimated a blood volume of 283 mL and a cell density of 193 × 106 cells/g in the liver. The overall PBPK model predicted the pharmacokinetics of midazolam and the magnitude of the clinical DDI with perpetrator drug(s) including spatial and temporal enzyme levels changes. The model presented herein may reduce costs and the use of laboratory animals and give the opportunity to explore different clinical scenarios, which reduce the risk of adverse events, prior to costly human clinical studies

Risk Factors and Immunity in a Nationally Representative Population following the 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

Understanding immunity, incidence and risk factors of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (2009 H1N1) through a national seroprevalence study is necessary for informing public health interventions and disease modelling.We collected 1687 serum samples and individual risk factor data between November-2009 to March-2010, three months after the end of the 2009 H1N1 wave in New Zealand. Participants were randomly sampled from selected general practices countrywide and hospitals in the Auckland region. Baseline immunity was measured from 521 sera collected during 2004 to April-2009. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titres of ≥1∶40 against 2009 H1N1 were considered seroprotective as well as seropositive. The overall community seroprevalence was 26.7% (CI:22.6–29.4). The seroprevalence varied across age and ethnicity. Children aged 5–19 years had the highest seroprevalence (46.7%;CI:38.3–55.0), a significant increase from the baseline (14%;CI:7.2–20.8). Older adults aged ≥60 had no significant difference in seroprevalence between the serosurvey (24.8%;CI:18.7–30.9) and baseline (22.6%;CI:15.3–30.0). Pacific peoples had the highest seroprevalence (49.5%;CI:35.1–64.0). There was no significant difference in seroprevalence between both primary (29.6%;CI:22.6–36.5) and secondary healthcare workers (25.3%;CI:20.8–29.8) and community participants. No significant regional variation was observed. Multivariate analysis indicated age as the most important risk factor followed by ethnicity. Previous seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with higher HI titres. Approximately 45.2% of seropositive individuals reported no symptoms.Based on age and ethnicity standardisation to the New Zealand Population, about 29.5% of New Zealanders had antibody titers at a level consistent with immunity to 2009 H1N1. Around 18.3% of New Zealanders were infected with the virus during the first wave including about one child in every three. Older people were protected due to pre-existing immunity. Age was the most important factor associated with infection followed by ethnicity. Healthcare workers did not appear to have an increased risk of infection compared with the general population

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Cost-Effectiveness of “Golden Mustard” for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India

BACKGROUND: Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is an important nutritional problem in India, resulting in an increased risk of severe morbidity and mortality. Periodic, high-dose vitamin A supplementation is the WHO-recommended method to prevent VAD, since a single dose can compensate for reduced dietary intake or increased need over a period of several months. However, in India only 34 percent of targeted children currently receive the two doses per year, and new strategies are urgently needed. METHODOLOGY: Recent advancements in biotechnology permit alternative strategies for increasing the vitamin A content of common foods. Mustard (Brassica juncea), which is consumed widely in the form of oil by VAD populations, can be genetically modified to express high levels of beta-carotene, a precursor to vitamin A. Using estimates for consumption, we compare predicted costs and benefits of genetically modified (GM) fortification of mustard seed with high-dose vitamin A supplementation and industrial fortification of mustard oil during processing to alleviate VAD by calculating the avertable health burden in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALY). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found that all three interventions potentially avert significant numbers of DALYs and deaths. Expanding vitamin A supplementation to all areas was the least costly intervention, at $23-$50 per DALY averted and $1,000-$6,100 per death averted, though cost-effectiveness varied with prevailing health subcenter coverage. GM fortification could avert 5 million-6 million more DALYs and 8,000-46,000 more deaths, mainly because it would benefit the entire population and not just children. However, the costs associated with GM fortification were nearly five times those of supplementation. Industrial fortification was dominated by both GM fortification and supplementation. The cost-effectiveness ratio of each intervention decreased with the prevalence of VAD and was sensitive to the efficacy rate of averted mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Although supplementation is the least costly intervention, our findings also indicate that GM fortification could reduce the VAD disease burden to a substantially greater degree because of its wider reach. Given the difficulties in expanding supplementation to areas without health subcenters, GM fortification of mustard seed is an attractive alternative, and further exploration of this technology is warranted

Anthropogenic Disturbance Can Determine the Magnitude of Opportunistic Species Responses on Marine Urban Infrastructures

Background: Coastal landscapes are being transformed as a consequence of the increasing demand for infrastructures to sustain residential, commercial and tourist activities. Thus, intertidal and shallow marine habitats are largely being replaced by a variety of artificial substrata (e.g. breakwaters, seawalls, jetties). Understanding the ecological functioning of these artificial habitats is key to planning their design and management, in order to minimise their impacts and to improve their potential to contribute to marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Nonetheless, little effort has been made to assess the role of human disturbances in shaping the structure of assemblages on marine artificial infrastructures. We tested the hypothesis that some negative impacts associated with the expansion of opportunistic and invasive species on urban infrastructures can be related to the severe human disturbances that are typical of these environments, such as those from maintenance and renovation works. Methodology/Principal Findings: Maintenance caused a marked decrease in the cover of dominant space occupiers, such as mussels and oysters, and a significant enhancement of opportunistic and invasive forms, such as biofilm and macroalgae. These effects were particularly pronounced on sheltered substrata compared to exposed substrata. Experimental application of the disturbance in winter reduced the magnitude of the impacts compared to application in spring or summer. We use these results to identify possible management strategies to inform the improvement of the ecological value of artificial marine infrastructures. Conclusions/Significance: We demonstrate that some of the impacts of globally expanding marine urban infrastructures, such as those related to the spread of opportunistic, and invasive species could be mitigated through ecologically-driven planning and management of long-term maintenance of these structures. Impact mitigation is a possible outcome of policies that consider the ecological features of built infrastructures and the fundamental value of controlling biodiversity in marine urban systems

Transmission Characteristics of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: Comparison of 8 Southern Hemisphere Countries

While in Northern hemisphere countries, the pandemic H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm) was introduced outside of the typical influenza season, Southern hemisphere countries experienced a single wave of transmission during their 2009 winter season. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the spread of a single virus in different countries and study the factors influencing its transmission. Here, we estimate and compare transmission characteristics of H1N1pdm for eight Southern hemisphere countries/states: Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, South Africa and Victoria (Australia). Weekly incidence of cases and age-distribution of cumulative cases were extracted from public reports of countries' surveillance systems. Estimates of the reproduction numbers, R0, empirically derived from the country-epidemics' early exponential phase, were positively associated with the proportion of children in the populations (p = 0.004). To explore the role of demography in explaining differences in transmission intensity, we then fitted a dynamic age-structured model of influenza transmission to available incidence data for each country independently, and for all the countries simultaneously. Posterior median estimates of R0 ranged 1.2–1.8 for the country-specific fits, and 1.29–1.47 for the global fits. Corresponding estimates for overall attack-rate were in the range 20–50%. All model fits indicated a significant decrease in susceptibility to infection with age. These results confirm the transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus was relatively low compared with past pandemics. The pattern of age-dependent susceptibility found confirms that older populations had substantial – though partial - pre-existing immunity, presumably due to exposure to heterologous influenza strains. Our analysis indicates that between-country-differences in transmission were at least partly due to differences in population demography