Halfway to doubling of CO2 radiative forcing

The “double CO2” experiment has become a standard experiment in climate science, and a convenient way of comparing the sensitivity of different climate models. Double CO2 was first used by Arrhenius in the 19th century and in the classic paper by Manabe and Wetherald, published 50 years ago, which marked the start of the modern era of climate modeling. Doubling CO2 now has an iconic role in climate research. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is defined as the global-mean surface temperature change resulting from a doubling of CO2, which is a headline result in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. In its most recent assessment IPCC concluded that the ECS “is likely in the range 1.5 to 4.5oC”. We show that we are now halfway to doubling of CO2 since pre-industrial times in terms of radiative forcing, but not in concentration

Low-complexity BCH codes with optimized interleavers for DQPSK systems with laser phase noise

The presence of high phase noise in addition to additive white Gaussian noise in coherent optical systems affects the performance of forward error correction (FEC) schemes. In this paper, we propose a simple scheme for such systems, using block interleavers and binary Bose–Chaudhuri–Hocquenghem (BCH) codes. The block interleavers are specifically optimized for differential quadrature phase shift keying modulation. We propose a method for selecting BCH codes that, together with the interleavers, achieve a target post-FEC bit error rate (BER). This combination of interleavers and BCH codes has very low implementation complexity. In addition, our approach is straightforward, requiring only short pre-FEC simulations to parameterize a model, based on which we select codes analytically. We aim to correct a pre-FEC BER of around (Formula presented.). We evaluate the accuracy of our approach using numerical simulations. For a target post-FEC BER of (Formula presented.), codes selected using our method result in BERs around 3(Formula presented.) target and achieve the target with around 0.2 dB extra signal-to-noise ratio

Renal function at the time of a myocardial infarction maintains prognostic value for more than 10 years

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Renal function is an important predictor of mortality in patients with myocardial infarction (MI), but changes in the impact over time have not been well described.</p> <p>We examined the importance of renal function by estimated GFR (eGFR) and se-creatinine as an independent long-term prognostic factor.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Prospective follow-up of 6653 consecutive MI patients screened for entry in the Trandolapril Cardiac Evaluation (TRACE) study. The patients were analysed by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, landmark analysis and Cox proportional hazard models. Outcome measure was all-cause mortality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An eGFR below 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m², consistent with chronic renal disease, was present in 42% of the patients. We divided the patients into 4 groups according to eGFR. Overall, Cox proportional-hazards models showed that eGFR was a significant prognostic factor in the two groups with the lowest eGFR, hazard ratio 1,72 (confidence interval (CI) 1,56-1,91) in the group with the lowest eGFR. Using the eGFR group with normal renal function as reference, we observed an incremental rise in hazard ratio. We divided the follow-up period in 2-year intervals. Landmark analysis showed that eGFR at the time of screening continued to show prognostic effect until 16 years of follow-up. By multivariable Cox regression analysis, the prognostic effect of eGFR persisted for 12 years and of se-creatinine for 10 years. When comparing the lowest group of eGFR with the group with normal eGFR, prognostic significance was present in the entire period of follow-up with a hazard ratio between 1,97 (CI 1,65-2,35) and 1,35 (CI 0,99-1,84) in the 2-year periods.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>One estimate of renal function is a strong and independent long-term prognostic factor for 10-12 years following a MI.</p

Health care seeking among pulmonary tuberculosis suspects and patients in rural Ethiopia: a community-based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health care seeking is a dynamic process that is influenced by socio-demographic, cultural and other factors. In Ethiopia, there are limited studies regarding the health seeking behaviour of tuberculosis (TB) suspects and TB patients. However, a thorough understanding of patients' motivation and actions is crucial to understanding TB and the treatment of disease. Such insights would conceivably help to reduce delay in diagnosis, improve treatment adherence and thereby reduce transmission of TB in the community. The objective of this study was to describe and analyze health care seeking among TB suspects and pulmonary TB (PTB) cases in a rural district of the Amhara Region in Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Study <it>kebeles </it>were randomly selected in a cross-sectional study design. House-to-house visits were conducted in which individuals aged 15 years and above in all households of the <it>kebeles </it>were included. Subjects with symptoms suggestive of TB were interviewed about their health seeking behaviour, socio-demographic and clinical factors using a semi-structured questionnaire. Logistics regression analysis was employed to assess associations between the independent and outcome variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority, 787 (78%), TB suspects and 33 (82.5%) PTB cases had taken health care actions for symptoms from sources outside their homes. The median delay before the first action was 30 days. In logistics regression, women (AOR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6, 0.9) were found to be less likely to visit a medical health provider than men. Those with a long duration of cough (AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.03, 2.1) and those with a previous history of TB (AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.03, 2.3) were more likely to visit a medical health provider compared to those with a shorter duration of cough and with no history of TB.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The majority of TB suspects and PTB cases had already taken health care actions for their symptoms at the time of the survey. The availability of a simple and rapid diagnostic TB test for use at the lowest level of health care and the involvement of all health providers in case finding activities are imperative for early TB case detection.</p

Pastoralism and delay in diagnosis of TB in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in the Horn of Africa with Ethiopia being the most affected where TB cases increase at the rate of 2.6% each year. One of the main contributing factors for this rise is increasing transmission due to large number of untreated patients, serving as reservoirs of the infection within the communities. Reduction of the time between onset of TB symptoms to diagnosis is therefore a prerequisite to bring the TB epidemic under control. The aim of this study was to measure duration of delay among pastoralist TB patients at TB management units in Somali Regional State (SRS) of Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross sectional study of 226 TB patients with pastoralist identity was conducted in SRS of Ethiopia from June to September 2007. Patients were interviewed using questionnaire based interview. Time between onset of TB symptoms and first visit to a professional health care provider (patient delay), and the time between first visits to the professional health care provider to the date of diagnosis (medical provider's delay) were analyzed. Both pulmonary and extrapulmonary TB patients were included in the study.</p> <p>Result</p> <p>A total of 226 pastoralist TB patients were included in this study; 93 (41.2%) were nomadic pastoralists and 133 (58.8%) were agro-pastoralists. Median patient delay was found to be 60 days with range of 10–1800 days (83 days for nomadic pastoralists and 57 days for agro-pastoralists). Median health care provider's delay was 6 days and median total delay was 70 days in this study. Patient delay constituted 86% of the total delay. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, nomadic pastoralism (aOR. 2.69, CI 1.47–4.91) and having low biomedical knowledge on TB (aOR. 2.02, CI 1.02–3.98) were significantly associated with prolonged patient delay. However, the only observed risk factor for very long patient delay >120 days was distance to health facility (aOR.4.23, CI 1.32–13.54). Extra-pulmonary TB was the only observed predictor for health care providers' delay (aOR. 3.39, CI 1.68–6.83).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patient delay observed among pastoralist TB patients in SRS is one of the highest reported so far from developing countries, exceeding two years in some patients. This long patient delay appears to be associated with patient's inadequate knowledge of the disease and distance to health care facility with nomadic pastoralists being the most affected. Regional TB control programmes need to consider the exceptional circumstances of pastoralists, to maximise their access to TB services.</p

The clubfoot assessment protocol (CAP); description and reliability of a structured multi-level instrument for follow-up

BACKGROUND: In most clubfoot studies, the outcome instruments used are designed to evaluate classification or long-term cross-sectional results. Variables deal mainly with factors on body function/structure level. Wide scorings intervals and total sum scores increase the risk that important changes and information are not detected. Studies of the reliability, validity and responsiveness of these instruments are sparse. The lack of an instrument for longitudinal follow-up led the investigators to develop the Clubfoot Assessment Protocol (CAP). The aim of this article is to introduce and describe the CAP and evaluate the items inter- and intra reliability in relation to patient age. METHODS: The CAP was created from 22 items divided between body function/structure (three subgroups) and activity (one subgroup) levels according to the International Classification of Function, Disability and Health (ICF). The focus is on item and subgroup development. Two experienced examiners assessed 69 clubfeet in 48 children who had a median age of 2.1 years (range, 0 to 6.7 years). Both treated and untreated feet with different grades of severity were included. Three age groups were constructed for studying the influence of age on reliability. The intra- rater study included 32 feet in 20 children who had a median age of 2.5 years (range, 4 months to 6.8 years). The Unweighted Kappa statistics, percentage observer agreement, and amount of categories defined how reliability was to be interpreted. RESULTS: The inter-rater reliability was assessed as moderate to good for all but one item. Eighteen items had kappa values > 0.40. Three items varied from 0.35 to 0.38. The mean percentage observed agreement was 82% (range, 62 to 95%). Different age groups showed sufficient agreement. Intra- rater; all items had kappa values > 0.40 [range, 0.54 to 1.00] and a mean percentage agreement of 89.5%. Categories varied from 3 to 5. CONCLUSION: The CAP contains more detailed information than previous protocols. It is a multi-dimensional observer administered standardized measurement instrument with the focus on item and subgroup level. It can be used with sufficient reliability, independent of age, during the first seven years of childhood by examiners with good clinical experience. A few items showed low reliability, partly dependent on the child's age and /or varying professional backgrounds between the examiners. These items should be interpreted with caution, until further studies have confirmed the validity and sensitivity of the instrument

Collecting a set of psoriasis family material through a patient organisation; clinical characterisation and presence of additional disorders

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to describe the clinical characteristics of a population of psoriatics sampled from a patient organisation and not from hospitals or out-patient clinics. Furthermore, we wanted to compare siblings with and without psoriasis regarding the occurrence of other diseases. METHODS: At the end of 1991, we initiated a project which aimed to study genetic factors leading to psoriasis. Firstly, we sent questionnaires to all the members of the Swedish Psoriasis Association. We then examined 1,217 individuals (570 with psoriasis) from 310 families, in their homes in the southern part of Sweden. All the available family members were examined clinically and asked about the course of the skin disease and the occurrence of other diseases. The eight hundred members of the proband generation were divided into two groups, with or without psoriasis, and their clinical features were compared. RESULTS: Most individuals in this study population had a mild form of psoriasis. The siblings with psoriasis had joint complaints significantly more frequently than their siblings without the skin disease and those with joint complaints had more widespread skin disease. Among the other studied concomitant diseases (iritis, heart or hypertension disease, endocrine disease, inflammatory bowel disease and neurological disease), we were not able to find any difference. Seventy-seven of 570 persons were found to be in remission (13.5%). Females had a mean onset 2.5 years earlier than males. We were not able to find any correlation between the extent of the skin disease and age at onset. Twice as many persons with joint complaints were found among those with psoriasis than among those without, 28% versus 13%. Almost half (48%) the psoriatics who also had joint complaints had psoriasis lesions on their nails. Endocrine disorders were found in 9% of those without any allele for Cw6, but only in 1% of those who had Cw6. In fact, none of 183 Cw6 carriers had diabetes, as compared to the population prevalence of 3–5% in Sweden. CONCLUSION: With the exception of joint complaints, persons with psoriasis, collected from a patient organisation, did not have an increased frequency of (studied) co-existing diseases

Identification of Novel α-Synuclein Isoforms in Human Brain Tissue by using an Online NanoLC-ESI-FTICR-MS Method

Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) are neurodegenerative diseases that are characterized by intra-neuronal inclusions of Lewy bodies in distinct brain regions. These inclusions consist mainly of aggregated α-synuclein (α-syn) protein. The present study used immunoprecipitation combined with nanoflow liquid chromatography (LC) coupled to high resolution electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance tandem mass spectrometry (ESI-FTICR-MS/MS) to determine known and novel isoforms of α-syn in brain tissue homogenates. N-terminally acetylated full-length α-syn (Ac-α-syn1–140) and two N-terminally acetylated C-terminally truncated forms of α-syn (Ac-α-syn1–139 and Ac-α-syn1–103) were found. The different forms of α-syn were further studied by Western blotting in brain tissue homogenates from the temporal cortex Brodmann area 36 (BA36) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex BA9 derived from controls, patients with DLB and PD with dementia (PDD). Quantification of α-syn in each brain tissue fraction was performed using a novel enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)

Chlamydia trachomatis antigens in enteroendocrine cells and macrophages of the small bowel in patients with severe irritable bowel syndrome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Inflammation and immune activation have repeatedly been suggested as pathogentic factors in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). The driving force for immune activation in IBS remains unknown. The aim of our study was to find out if the obligate intracellular pathogen <it>Chlamydia </it>could be involved in the pathogenesis of IBS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied 65 patients (61 females) with IBS and 42 (29 females) healthy controls in which IBS had been excluded. Full thickness biopsies from the jejunum and mucosa biopsies from the duodenum and the jejunum were stained with a monoclonal antibody to <it>Chlamydia </it>lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and species-specific monoclonal antibodies to <it>C. trachomatis </it>and <it>C. pneumoniae</it>. We used polyclonal antibodies to chromogranin A, CD68, CD11c, and CD117 to identify enteroendocrine cells, macrophages, dendritic, and mast cells, respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>Chlamydia </it>LPS was present in 89% of patients with IBS, but in only 14% of healthy controls (p < 0.001) and 79% of LPS-positive biopsies were also positive for <it>C. trachomatis </it>major outer membrane protein (MOMP). Staining for <it>C. pneumoniae </it>was negative in both patients and controls. <it>Chlamydia </it>LPS was detected in enteroendocrine cells of the mucosa in 90% of positive biopsies and in subepithelial macrophages in 69% of biopsies. Biopsies taken at different time points in 19 patients revealed persistence of <it>Chlamydia </it>LPS up to 11 years. The odds ratio for the association of <it>Chlamydia </it>LPS with presence of IBS (43.1; 95% CI: 13.2-140.7) is much higher than any previously described pathogenetic marker in IBS.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found <it>C. trachomatis </it>antigens in enteroendocrine cells and macrophages in the small bowel mucosa of patients with IBS. Further studies are required to clarify if the presence of such antigens has a role in the pathogenesis of IBS.</p