Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence.

Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm's core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones

Information-Centric Multilayer Networking: Improving Performance Through an ICN/WDM Architecture

Information-centric networking (ICN) facilitates content identification in networks and offers parametric representation of content semantics. This paper proposes an ICN/WDM network architecture that uses these features to offer superior network utilization, in terms of performance and power consumption. The architecture introduces an ICN publish/subscribe communication approach to the wavelength layer, whereby content is aggregated according to its popularity rank into wavelength-size groups that can be published and subscribed to by multiple nodes. Consequently, routing and wavelength assignment (RWA) algorithms benefit from anycast to identify multiple sources of aggregate content and allow optimization of the source selection of light paths. A power-aware algorithm, maximum degree of connectivity, has been developed with the objective of exploiting this flexibility to address the tradeoff between power consumption and network performance. The algorithm is also applicable to IP architectures, albeit with less flexibility. Evaluation results indicate the superiority of the proposed ICN architecture, even when utilizing conventional routing methods, compared with its IP counterpart. The results further highlight the performance improvement achieved by the proposed algorithm, compared with the conventional RWA methods, such as shortest-path first fit

The effect of high dose antibiotic impregnated cement on rate of surgical site infection after hip hemiarthroplasty for fractured neck of femur : a protocol for a double-blind quasi randomised controlled trial

Background: Mortality following hip hemiarthroplasty is in the range of 10-40% in the first year, with much attributed to post-operative complications. One such complication is surgical site infection (SSI), which at the start of this trial affected 4.68% of patients in the UK having this operation. Compared to SSI rates of elective hip surgery, at less than 1%, this figure is elevated. The aim of this quasi randomised controlled trial (RCT) is to determine if high dose antibiotic impregnated cement can reduce the SSI in patients at 12-months after hemiarthroplasty for intracapsular fractured neck of femur. Methods: 848 patients with an intracapsular fractured neck of femur requiring a hip hemiarthroplasty are been recruited into this two-centre double-blind quasi RCT. Participants were recruited before surgery and quasi randomised to standard care or intervention group. Participants, statistician and outcome assessors were blind to treatment allocation throughout the study. The intervention consisted of high dose antibiotic impregnated cement consisting of 1 gram Clindamycin and 1 gram of Gentamicin. The primary outcome is Health Protection Agency (HPA) defined deep surgical site infection at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include HPA defined superficial surgical site infection at 30 days, 30 and 90-day mortality, length of hospital stay, critical care stay, and complications. Discussion: Large randomised controlled trials assessing the effectiveness of a surgical intervention are uncommon, particularly in the speciality of orthopaedics. The results from this trial will inform evidence-based recommendations for antibiotic impregnated cement in the management of patients with a fractured neck of femur undergoing a hip hemiarthroplasty. If high dose antibiotic impregnated cement is found to be an effective intervention, implementation into clinical practice could improve long-term outcomes for patients undergoing hip hemiarthroplasty

Anchor Free IP Mobility

Efficient mobility management techniques are critical in providing seamless connectivity and session continuity between a mobile node and the network during its movement. However, current mobility management solutions generally require a central entity in the network core, tracking IP address movement, and anchoring traffic from source to destination through point-to-point tunnels. Intuitively, this approach suffers from scalability limitations as it creates bottlenecks in the network, due to sub-optimal routing via the anchor point. This is often termed 'dog-leg' routing. Meanwhile, alternative anchorless, solutions are not feasible due to the current limitations of the IP semantics, which strongly tie addressing information to location. In contrast, this paper introduces a novel anchorless mobility solution that overcomes these limitations by exploiting a new path-based forwarding fabric together with emerging mechanisms from information-centric networking. These mechanisms decouple the end-system IP address from the path based data forwarding to eliminate the need for anchoring traffic through the network core; thereby, allowing flexible path calculation and service provisioning. Furthermore, by eliminating the limitation of routing via the anchor point, our approach reduces the network cost compared to anchored solutions through bandwidth saving while maintaining comparable handover delay. The proposed solution is applicable to both cellular and large-scale wireless LAN networks that aim to support seamless handover in a single operator domain scenario. The solution is modeled as a Markov-chain which applies a topological basis to describe mobility. The validity of the proposed Markovian model was verified through simulation of both random walk mobility on random geometric networks and trace information from a large-scale, city wide data set. Evaluation results illustrate a significant reduction in the total network traffic cost by 45 percent or more when using the proposed solution, compared to Proxy Mobile IPv6

Seamless handover in IP over ICN networks: A coding approach

Seamless connectivity plays a key role in realizing QoS-based delivery in mobile networks. However, current handover mechanisms hinder the ability to meet this target, due to the high ratio of handover failures, packet loss and service interruption. These challenges are further magnified in Heterogeneous Cellular Networks (HCN) such as Advanced Long Term Evolution (LTE-Advanced) and LTE in unlicensed spectrum (LTE-LAA), due to the variation in handover requirements. Although mechanisms, such as Fast Handover for Proxy Mobile IPv6 (PFMIPv6), attempt to tackle these issues; they come at a high cost with sub-optimal outcomes. This primarily stems from various limitations of existing IP core networks. In this paper we propose a novel handover solution for mobile networks, exploiting the advantages of a revolutionary IP over Information-Centric Networking (IP-over-ICN) architecture in supporting flexible service provisioning through anycast and multicast, combined with the advantages of random linear coding techniques in eliminating the need for retransmissions. Our solution allows coded traffic to be disseminated in a multicast fashion during handover phase from source directly to the destination(s), without the need for an intermediate anchor as in exiting solutions; thereby, overcoming packet loss and handover failures, while reducing overall delivery cost. We evaluate our approach with an analytical and simulation model showing significant cost reduction compared to PFMIPv6

hp-DGFEM for Partial Differential Equations with Nonnegative Characteristic Form

Presented as Invited Lecture at the International Symposium on Discontinuous Galerkin Methods: Theory, Computation and Applications, in Newport, RI, USA.\ud \ud We develop the error analysis for the hp-version of a discontinuous finite element approximation to second-order partial differential equations with nonnegative characteristic form. This class of equations includes classical examples of second-order elliptic and parabolic equations, first-order hyperbolic equations, as well as equations of mixed type. We establish an a priori error bound for the method which is of optimal order in the mesh size h and 1 order less than optimal in the polynomial degree p. In the particular case of a first-order hyperbolic equation the error bound is optimal in h and 1/2 an order less than optimal in p

The MUK eight protocol: a randomised phase II trial of cyclophosphamide and dexamethasone in combination with ixazomib, in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) patients who have relapsed after treatment with thalidomide, lenalidomide and a proteasome inhibitor

Background Multiple myeloma is a plasma cell tumour with approximately 5500 new cases in the UK each year. Ixazomib is a next generation inhibitor of the 20S proteasome and is thought to be an effective treatment for those who have relapsed from bortezomib. The combination of cyclophosphamide and dexamethasone (CD) is a recognised treatment option for patients with relapsed refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) who have relapsed after treatment with bortezomib and lenalidomide, whilst also often being combined with newer proteasome inhibitors. The most apparent combination for ixazomib is therefore with CD. Methods MUK eight is a randomised, controlled, open, parallel group, multi-centre phase II trial that will recruit patients with RRMM who have relapsed after treatment with thalidomide, lenalidomide, and a proteasome inhibitor. The primary objective of the trial is to evaluate whether ixazomib in combination with cyclophosphamide and dexamethasone (ICD) has improved clinical activity compared to CD in terms of progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary objectives include comparing toxicity profiles and the activity and cost-effectiveness of both treatments. Since opening, the trial has been amended to allow all participants who experience disease progression (as per the IMWG criteria) on the CD arm to subsequently switch to receive ICD treatment, once progression has been confirmed with two clinical members of the Trial Management Group (TMG). This ‘switch’ phase of the study is exploratory and will assess second progression-free survival measured from randomisation to second disease progression (PFS2) and progression-free survival from the point of switching to second disease progression (PFS Switch) in participants who switch from CD to ICD treatment. Discussion Development of ixazomib offers the opportunity to further investigate the value of proteasome inhibition through oral administration in the treatment of RRMM. Previous studies investigating the safety and efficacy of ICD in patients with RRMM demonstrate a toxicity profile consistent with ixazomib in combination with lenalidomide and dexamethasone, whilst the combination showed possible activity in RRMM patients. Further investigation of the anti-tumour effect of this drug in RRMM patients is therefore warranted, especially since no trials comparing CD with ICD have been completed at present. Trial registration ISRCTN number: ISRCTN58227268. Registered on 26 August 2015

Improved change detection with nearby hands

Recent studies have suggested altered visual processing for objects that are near the hands. We present three experiments that test whether an observer’s hands near the display facilitate change detection. While performing the task, observers placed both hands either near or away from the display. When their hands were near the display, change detection performance was more accurate and they held more items in visual short-term memory (experiment 1). Performance was equally improved for all regions across the entire display, suggesting a stronger attentional engagement over all visual stimuli regardless of their relative distances from the hands (experiment 2). Interestingly, when only one hand was placed near the display, we found no facilitation from the left hand and a weak facilitation from the right hand (experiment 3). Together, these data suggest that the right hand is the main source of facilitation, and both hands together produce a nonlinear boost in performance (superadditivity) that cannot be explained by either hand alone. In addition, the presence of the right hand biased observers to attend to the right hemifield first, resulting in a right-bias in change detection performance (experiments 2 and 3)