Eye-Tracking Causality

How do people make causal judgments? What role, if any, does counterfactual simulation play? Counterfactual theories of causal judgments predict that people compare what actually happened with what would have happened if the candidate cause had been absent. Process theories predict that people focus only on what actually happened, to assess the mechanism linking candidate cause and outcome. We tracked participants' eye movements while they judged whether one billiard ball caused another one to go through a gate or prevented it from going through. Both participants' looking patterns and their judgments demonstrated that counterfactual simulation played a critical role. Participants simulated where the target ball would have gone if the candidate cause had been removed from the scene. The more certain participants were that the outcome would have been different, the stronger the causal judgments. These results provide the first direct evidence for spontaneous counterfactual simulation in an important domain of high-level cognition

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Nitrogen uptake and internal recycling in Zostera marina exposed to oyster farming: eelgrass potential as a natural biofilter

Oyster farming in estuaries and coastal lagoons frequently overlaps with the distribution of seagrass meadows, yet there are few studies on how this aquaculture practice affects seagrass physiology. We compared in situ nitrogen uptake and the productivity of Zostera marina shoots growing near off-bottom longlines and at a site not affected by oyster farming in San Quintin Bay, a coastal lagoon in Baja California, Mexico. We used benthic chambers to measure leaf NH4 (+) uptake capacities by pulse labeling with (NH4)-N-15 (+) and plant photosynthesis and respiration. The internal N-15 resorption/recycling was measured in shoots 2 weeks after incubations. The natural isotopic composition of eelgrass tissues and vegetative descriptors were also examined. Plants growing at the oyster farming site showed a higher leaf NH4 (+) uptake rate (33.1 mmol NH4 (+) m(-2) day(-1)) relative to those not exposed to oyster cultures (25.6 mmol NH4 (+) m(-2) day(-1)). We calculated that an eelgrass meadow of 15-16 ha (which represents only about 3-4 % of the subtidal eelgrass meadow cover in the western arm of the lagoon) can potentially incorporate the total amount of NH4 (+) excreted by oysters (similar to 5.2 x 10(6) mmol NH4 (+) day(-1)). This highlights the potential of eelgrass to act as a natural biofilter for the NH4 (+) produced by oyster farming. Shoots exposed to oysters were more efficient in re-utilizing the internal N-15 into the growth of new leaf tissues or to translocate it to belowground tissues. Photosynthetic rates were greater in shoots exposed to oysters, which is consistent with higher NH4 (+) uptake and less negative delta C-13 values. Vegetative production (shoot size, leaf growth) was also higher in these shoots. Aboveground/belowground biomass ratio was lower in eelgrass beds not directly influenced by oyster farms, likely related to the higher investment in belowground biomass to incorporate sedimentary nutrients

Effectiveness of moving on: an Australian designed generic self-management program for people with a chronic illness

Background: This paper presents the evaluation of “Moving On”, a generic self-management program for people with a chronic illness developed by Arthritis NSW. The program aims to help participants identify their need for behavior change and acquire the knowledge and skills to implement changes that promote their health and quality of life. Method: A prospective pragmatic randomised controlled trial involving two group programs in community settings: the intervention program (Moving On) and a control program (light physical activity). Participants were recruited by primary health care providers across the north-west region of metropolitan Sydney, Australia between June 2009 and October 2010. Patient outcomes were self-reported via pre- and post-program surveys completed at the time of enrolment and sixteen weeks after program commencement. Primary outcomes were change in self-efficacy (Self-efficacy for Managing Chronic Disease 6-Item Scale), self-management knowledge and behaviour and perceived health status (Self-Rated Health Scale and the Health Distress Scale). Results: A total of 388 patient referrals were received, of whom 250 (64.4%) enrolled in the study. Three patients withdrew prior to allocation. 25 block randomisations were performed by a statistician external to the research team: 123 patients were allocated to the intervention program and 124 were allocated to the control program. 97 (78.9%) of the intervention participants commenced their program. The overall attrition rate of 40.5% included withdrawals from the study and both programs. 24.4% of participants withdrew from the intervention program but not the study and 22.6% withdrew from the control program but not the study. A total of 62 patients completed the intervention program and follow-up evaluation survey and 77 patients completed the control program and follow- up evaluation survey. At 16 weeks follow-up there was no significant difference between intervention and control groups in self-efficacy; however, there was an increase in self-efficacy from baseline to follow-up for the intervention participants (t=−1.948, p=0.028). There were no significant differences in self-rated health or health distress scores between groups at follow-up, with both groups reporting a significant decrease in health distress scores. There was no significant difference between or within groups in self-management knowledge and stage of change of behaviours at follow-up. Intervention group attenders had significantly higher physical activity (t=−4.053, p=0.000) and nutrition scores (t=2.315, p= 0.01) at follow-up; however, these did not remain significant after adjustment for covariates. At follow-up, significantly more participants in the control group (20.8%) indicated that they did not have a self-management plan compared to those in the intervention group (8.8%) (X2=4.671, p=0.031). There were no significant changes in other self-management knowledge areas and behaviours after adjusting for covariates at follow-up. Conclusions: The study produced mixed findings. Differences between groups as allocated were diluted by the high proportion of patients not completing the program. Further monitoring and evaluation are needed of the impact and cost effectiveness of the program. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN1260900029821

Chances and Limitations of Wild Bird Monitoring for the Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 — Detection of Pathogens Highly Mobile in Time and Space

Highly pathogenic influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 proved to be remarkably mobile in migratory bird populations where it has led to extensive outbreaks for which the true number of affected birds usually cannot be determined. For the evaluation of avian influenza monitoring and HPAIV early warning systems, we propose a time-series analysis that includes the estimation of confidence intervals for (i) the prevalence in outbreak situations or (ii) in the apparent absence of disease in time intervals for specified regional units. For the German outbreak regions in 2006 and 2007, the upper 95% confidence limit allowed the detection of prevalences below 1% only for certain time intervals. Although more than 25,000 birds were sampled in Germany per year, the upper 95% confidence limit did not fall below 5% in the outbreak regions for most of the time. The proposed analysis can be used to monitor water bodies and high risk areas, also as part of an early-warning system. Chances for an improved targeting of the monitoring system as part of a risk-based approach are discussed with the perspective of reducing sample sizes

Optimism/pessimism and health-related quality of life during pregnancy across three continents: a matched cohort study in China, Ghana, and the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known about how optimism/pessimism and health-related quality of life compare across cultures.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three samples of pregnant women in their final trimester were recruited from China, Ghana, and the United States (U.S.). Participants completed a survey that included the Life Orientation Test - Revised (LOT-R, an optimism/pessimism measure), the Short Form 12 (SF-12, a quality of life measure), and questions addressing health and demographic factors. A three-country set was created for analysis by matching women on age, gestational age at enrollment, and number of previous pregnancies. Anovas with post-hoc pairwise comparisons were used to compare results across the cohorts. Multivariate regression analysis was used to create a model to identify those variables most strongly associated with optimism/pessimism.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>LOT-R scores varied significantly across cultures in these samples, with Ghanaian pregnant women being the most optimistic and least pessimistic and Chinese pregnant women being the least optimistic overall and the least pessimistic in subscale analysis. Four key variables predicted approximately 20% of the variance in overall optimism scores: country of origin (p = .006), working for money (p = .05); level of education (p = .002), and ever being treated for emotional issues with medication (p < .001). Quality of life scores also varied by country in these samples, with the most pronounced difference occurring in the vitality measure. U.S. pregnant women reported far lower vitality scores than both Chinese and Ghanaian pregnant women in our sample.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This research raises important questions regarding what it is about country of origin that so strongly influences optimism/pessimism among pregnant women. Further research is warranted exploring underlying conceptualization of optimism/pessimism and health related quality of life across countries.</p

Non-Sexual Transmission of Trichomonas vaginalis in Adolescent Girls Attending School in Ndola, Zambia

OBJECTIVES: To identify risk factors for trichomoniasis among young women in Ndola, Zambia. METHOD: The study was a cross-sectional study among adolescent girls aged 13-16 years in Ndola, Zambia. Study participants were recruited from schools in selected administrative areas that represented the different socio-economic strata in town. Consenting participants were interviewed about their socio-demographic characteristics; sexual behaviour; and hygiene practices. Self-administered vaginal swabs were tested for Trichomonas vaginalis. HSV-2 antibodies were determined on serum to validate the self-reported sexual activity. RESULTS: A total of 460 girls participated in the study. The overall prevalence of trichomoniasis was 27.1%, 33.9% among girls who reported that they had ever had sex and 24.7% among virgins. In multivariate analysis the only statistically significant risk factor for trichomoniasis was inconsistent use of soap. For the virgins, none of the risk factors was significantly associated with trichomoniasis, but the association with use of soap (not always versus always) and type of toilet used (pit latrine/bush versus flush toilet) was of borderline significance. CONCLUSION: We found a high prevalence of trichomoniasis in girls in Ndola who reported that they had never had sex. We postulate that the high prevalence of trichomoniasis in virgins in Ndola is due to non-sexual transmission of trichomoniasis via shared bathing water and inconsistent use of soap

Peripheral arterial volume distensibility changes with applied external pressure: significant difference between arteries with different compliance

This study aimed to quantify the different effect of external cuff pressure on arterial volume distensibility between peripheral arteries with different compliance. 30 healthy subjects were studied with the arm at two positions (0° and 45° from the horizontal level) to introduce different compliance of arteries. The electrocardiogram and finger and ear photoplethysmograms were recorded simultaneously under five external cuff pressures (0, 10, 20, 30 and 40 mmHg) on the whole arm to obtain arterial volume distensibility. With the applied external cuff pressures of 10, 20, 30 and 40 mmHg, the overall changes in arterial volume distensibility referred to those without external pressure were 0.010, 0.029, 0.054 and 0.108% per mmHg for the arm at the horizontal level, and 0.026, 0.071, 0.170 and 0.389% per mmHg for the arm at 45° from the horizontal level, confirming the non-linearity between arterial volume distensibility and external pressure. More interestingly, the significant differences in arterial volume distensibility changes were observed between the two arm positions, which were 0.016, 0.043, 0.116 and 0.281% per mmHg (all P < 0.01). Our findings demonstrated that arterial volume distensibility of peripheral arm arteries increased with external pressure, with a greater effect for more compliant arteries

Effect of probe characteristics on the subtractive hybridization efficiency of human genomic DNA

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The detection sensitivity of low abundance pathogenic species by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) can be significantly enhanced by removing host nucleic acids. This selective removal can be performed using a magnetic bead-based solid phase with covalently immobilized capture probes. One of the requirements to attain efficient host background nucleic acids subtraction is the capture probe characteristics.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>In this study we investigate how various capture probe characteristics influence the subtraction efficiency. While the primary focus of this report is the impact of probe length, we also studied the impact of probe conformation as well as the amount of capture probe attached to the solid phase. The probes were immobilized on magnetic microbeads functionalized with a phosphorous dendrimer. The subtraction efficiency was assessed by quantitative real time PCR using a single-step capture protocol and genomic DNA as target. Our results indicate that short probes (100 to 200 bp) exhibit the best subtraction efficiency. Additionally, higher subtraction efficiencies with these probes were obtained as the amount of probe immobilized on the solid phase decreased. Under optimal probes condition, our protocol showed a 90 - 95% subtraction efficiency of human genomic DNA.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The characteristics of the capture probe are important for the design of efficient solid phases. The length, conformation and abundance of the probes determine the capture efficiency of the solid phase.</p