Fish Is Food - The FAO’s Fish Price Index

World food prices hit an all-time high in February 2011 and are still almost two and a half times those of 2000. Although three billion people worldwide use seafood as a key source of animal protein, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations–which compiles prices for other major food categories–has not tracked seafood prices. We fill this gap by developing an index of global seafood prices that can help to understand food crises and may assist in averting them. The fish price index (FPI) relies on trade statistics because seafood is heavily traded internationally, exposing non-traded seafood to price competition from imports and exports. Easily updated trade data can thus proxy for domestic seafood prices that are difficult to observe in many regions and costly to update with global coverage. Calculations of the extent of price competition in different countries support the plausibility of reliance on trade data. Overall, the FPI shows less volatility and fewer price spikes than other food price indices including oils, cereals, and dairy. The FPI generally reflects seafood scarcity, but it can also be separated into indices by production technology, fish species, or region. Splitting FPI into capture fisheries and aquaculture suggests increased scarcity of capture fishery resources in recent years, but also growth in aquaculture that is keeping pace with demand. Regionally, seafood price volatility varies, and some prices are negatively correlated. These patterns hint that regional supply shocks are consequential for seafood prices in spite of the high degree of seafood tradability

Pre-referral rectal artesunate in severe malaria: flawed trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Immediate injectable treatment is essential for severe malaria. Otherwise, the afflicted risk lifelong impairment or death. In rural areas of Africa and Asia, appropriate care is often miles away. In 2009, Melba Gomes and her colleagues published the findings of a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of rectal artesunate for suspected severe malaria in such remote areas. Enrolling nearly 18,000 cases, the aim was to evaluate whether, as patients were in transit to a health facility, a pre-referral artesunate suppository blocked disease progression sufficiently to reduce these risks. The affirmative findings of this, the only trial on the issue thus far, have led the WHO to endorse rectal artesunate as a pre-referral treatment for severe malaria. In the light of its public health importance and because its scientific quality has not been assessed for a systematic review, our paper provides a detailed evaluation of the design, conduct, analysis, reporting, and practical features of this trial.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We performed a checklist-based and an in-depth evaluation of the trial. The evaluation criteria were based on the CONSORT statement for reporting clinical trials, the clinical trial methodology literature, and practice in malaria research. Our main findings are: The inclusion and exclusion criteria and the sample size justification are not stated. Many clearly ineligible subjects were enrolled. The training of the recruiters does not appear to have been satisfactory. There was excessive between center heterogeneity in design and conduct. Outcome evaluation schedule was not defined, and in practice, became too wide. Large gaps in the collection of key data were evident. Primary endpoints were inconsistently utilized and reported; an overall analysis of the outcomes was not done; analyses of time to event data had major flaws; the stated intent-to-treat analysis excluded a third of the randomized subjects; the design-indicated stratified or multi-variate analysis was not done; many improper subgroups were analyzed in a post-hoc fashion; the analysis and reporting metric was deficient. There are concerns relating to patient welfare at some centers. Exclusion of many cases from data analysis compromised external validity. A bias-controlled reanalysis of available data does not lend support to the conclusions drawn by the authors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This trial has numerous serious deficiencies in design, implementation, and methods of data analysis. Interpretation and manner of reporting are wanting, and the applicability of the findings is unclear. The trial conduct could have been improved to better protect patient welfare. The totality of these problems make it a flawed study whose conclusions remain subject to appreciable doubt.</p

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises

Changing cultural attitudes towards female genital cutting

As globalization brings people with incompatible attitudes into contact, cultural conflicts inevitably arise. Little is known about how to mitigate conflict and about how the conflicts that occur can shape the cultural evolution of the groups involved. Female genital cutting is a prominent example1, 2, 3. Governments and international agencies have promoted the abandonment of cutting for decades, but the practice remains widespread with associated health risks for millions of girls and women4, 5. In their efforts to end cutting, international agents have often adopted the view that cutting is locally pervasive and entrenched1. This implies the need to introduce values and expectations from outside the local culture. Members of the target society may view such interventions as unwelcome intrusions1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and campaigns promoting abandonment have sometimes led to backlash1, 7, 8, 10, 11 as they struggle to reconcile cultural tolerance with the conviction that cutting violates universal human rights1, 9. Cutting, however, is not necessarily locally pervasive and entrenched1, 3, 12. We designed experiments on cultural change that exploited the existence of conflicting attitudes within cutting societies. We produced four entertaining movies that served as experimental treatments in two experiments in Sudan, and we developed an implicit association test to unobtrusively measure attitudes about cutting. The movies depart from the view that cutting is locally pervasive by dramatizing members of an extended family as they confront each other with divergent views about whether the family should continue cutting. The movies significantly improved attitudes towards girls who remain uncut, with one in particular having a relatively persistent effect. These results show that using entertainment to dramatize locally discordant views can provide a basis for applied cultural evolution without accentuating intercultural divisions

Promoting advance planning for health care and research among older adults: A randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Family members are often required to act as substitute decision-makers when health care or research participation decisions must be made for an incapacitated relative. Yet most families are unable to accurately predict older adult preferences regarding future health care and willingness to engage in research studies. Discussion and documentation of preferences could improve proxies' abilities to decide for their loved ones. This trial assesses the efficacy of an advance planning intervention in improving the accuracy of substitute decision-making and increasing the frequency of documented preferences for health care and research. It also investigates the financial impact on the healthcare system of improving substitute decision-making.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Dyads (<it>n </it>= 240) comprising an older adult and his/her self-selected proxy are randomly allocated to the experimental or control group, after stratification for type of designated proxy and self-report of prior documentation of healthcare preferences. At baseline, clinical and research vignettes are used to elicit older adult preferences and assess the ability of their proxy to predict those preferences. Responses are elicited under four health states, ranging from the subject's current health state to severe dementia. For each state, we estimated the public costs of the healthcare services that would typically be provided to a patient under these scenarios. Experimental dyads are visited at home, twice, by a specially trained facilitator who communicates the dyad-specific results of the concordance assessment, helps older adults convey their wishes to their proxies, and offers assistance in completing a guide entitled <it>My Preferences </it>that we designed specifically for that purpose. In between these meetings, experimental dyads attend a group information session about <it>My Preferences</it>. Control dyads attend three monthly workshops aimed at promoting healthy behaviors. Concordance assessments are repeated at the end of the intervention and 6 months later to assess improvement in predictive accuracy and cost savings, if any. Copies of completed guides are made at the time of these assessments.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will determine whether the tested intervention guides proxies in making decisions that concur with those of older adults, motivates the latter to record their wishes in writing, and yields savings for the healthcare system.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p><a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN89993391">ISRCTN89993391</a></p

Malarial Hemozoin Activates the NLRP3 Inflammasome through Lyn and Syk Kinases

The intraerythrocytic parasite Plasmodium—the causative agent of malaria—produces an inorganic crystal called hemozoin (Hz) during the heme detoxification process, which is released into the circulation during erythrocyte lysis. Hz is rapidly ingested by phagocytes and induces the production of several pro-inflammatory mediators such as interleukin-1β (IL-1β). However, the mechanism regulating Hz recognition and IL-1β maturation has not been identified. Here, we show that Hz induces IL-1β production. Using knockout mice, we showed that Hz-induced IL-1β and inflammation are dependent on NOD-like receptor containing pyrin domain 3 (NLRP3), ASC and caspase-1, but not NLRC4 (NLR containing CARD domain). Furthermore, the absence of NLRP3 or IL-1β augmented survival to malaria caused by P. chabaudi adami DS. Although much has been discovered regarding the NLRP3 inflammasome induction, the mechanism whereby this intracellular multimolecular complex is activated remains unclear. We further demonstrate, using pharmacological and genetic intervention, that the tyrosine kinases Syk and Lyn play a critical role in activation of this inflammasome. These findings not only identify one way by which the immune system is alerted to malarial infection but also are one of the first to suggest a role for tyrosine kinase signaling pathways in regulation of the NLRP3 inflammasome

The International HapMap Project

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62838/1/nature02168.pd

A second generation human haplotype map of over 3.1 million SNPs

We describe the Phase II HapMap, which characterizes over 3.1 million human single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) genotyped in 270 individuals from four geographically diverse populations and includes 25-35% of common SNP variation in the populations surveyed. The map is estimated to capture untyped common variation with an average maximum r(2) of between 0.9 and 0.96 depending on population. We demonstrate that the current generation of commercial genome-wide genotyping products captures common Phase II SNPs with an average maximum r(2) of up to 0.8 in African and up to 0.95 in non-African populations, and that potential gains in power in association studies can be obtained through imputation. These data also reveal novel aspects of the structure of linkage disequilibrium. We show that 10-30% of pairs of individuals within a population share at least one region of extended genetic identity arising from recent ancestry and that up to 1% of all common variants are untaggable, primarily because they lie within recombination hotspots. We show that recombination rates vary systematically around genes and between genes of different function. Finally, we demonstrate increased differentiation at non-synonymous, compared to synonymous, SNPs, resulting from systematic differences in the strength or efficacy of natural selection between populations.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62863/1/nature06258.pd