Thermal niche evolution and geographical range expansion in a species complex of western Mediterranean diving beetles

[Background] Species thermal requirements are one of the principal determinants of their ecology and biogeography, although our understanding of the interplay between these factors is limited by the paucity of integrative empirical studies. Here we use empirically collected thermal tolerance data in combination with molecular phylogenetics/phylogeography and ecological niche modelling to study the evolution of a clade of three western Mediterranean diving beetles, the Agabus brunneus complex.[Results] The preferred mitochondrial DNA topology recovered A. ramblae (North Africa, east Iberia and Balearic islands) as paraphyletic, with A. brunneus (widespread in the southwestern Mediterranean) and A. rufulus (Corsica and Sardinia) nested within it, with an estimated origin between 0.60-0.25 Ma. All three species were, however, recovered as monophyletic using nuclear DNA markers. A Bayesian skyline plot suggested demographic expansion in the clade at the onset of the last glacial cycle. The species thermal tolerances differ significantly, with A. brunneus able to tolerate lower temperatures than the other taxa. The climatic niche of the three species also differs, with A. ramblae occupying more arid and seasonal areas, with a higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. The estimated potential distribution for both A. brunneus and A. ramblae was most restricted in the last interglacial, becoming increasingly wider through the last glacial and the Holocene.[Conclusions] The A. brunneus complex diversified in the late Pleistocene, most likely in south Iberia after colonization from Morocco. Insular forms did not differentiate substantially in morphology or ecology, but A. brunneus evolved a wider tolerance to cold, which appeared to have facilitated its geographic expansion. Both A. brunneus and A. ramblae expanded their ranges during the last glacial, although they have not occupied areas beyond their LGM potential distribution except for isolated populations of A. brunneus in France and England. On the islands and possibly Tunisia secondary contact between A. brunneus and A. ramblae or A. rufulus has resulted in introgression. Our work highlights the complex dynamics of speciation and range expansions within southern areas during the last glacial cycle, and points to the often neglected role of North Africa as a source of European biodiversity.This work was supported by an FPI grant to AH-G and projects CGL2007-61665 and CGL2010-15755 from the Spanish government to IR. We acknowledge support of the publication fee by the CSIC Open Access Publication Support Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI).Peer reviewe

Hormone-related risk factors for breast cancer in women under age 50 years by estrogen and progesterone receptor status: results from a case–control and a case–case comparison

INTRODUCTION: It has been suggested that hormonal risk factors act predominantly on estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor (ER/PR)-positive breast cancers. However, the data have been inconsistent, especially in younger women. METHODS: We evaluated the impact of age at menarche, pregnancy history, duration of breastfeeding, body mass index, combined oral contraceptive use, and alcohol consumption on breast cancer risk by ER/PR status in 1,725 population-based case patients and 440 control subjects aged 20 to 49 years identified within neighborhoods of case patients. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression methods to conduct case–control comparisons overall as well as by ER/PR status of the cases, and to compare ER(+)PR(+ )with ER(-)PR(- )case patients. RESULTS: The number of full-term pregnancies was inversely associated with the risk of ER(+)PR(+ )breast cancer (p(trend )= 0.005), whereas recent average alcohol consumption was associated with an increased risk of ER(+)PR(+ )breast cancer (p(trend )= 0.03). Neither of these two factors was associated with the risk of ER(- )PR(- )breast cancer. Late age at menarche and a longer duration of breastfeeding were both associated with decreased breast cancer risk, irrespective of receptor status (all p(trend)≤ 0.03). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the number of full-term pregnancies and recent alcohol consumption affect breast cancer risk in younger women predominantly through estrogen and progesterone mediated by their respective receptors. Late age at menarche and breastfeeding may act through different hormonal mechanisms

Factors Influencing the Statistical Power of Complex Data Analysis Protocols for Molecular Signature Development from Microarray Data

Critical to the development of molecular signatures from microarray and other high-throughput data is testing the statistical significance of the produced signature in order to ensure its statistical reproducibility. While current best practices emphasize sufficiently powered univariate tests of differential expression, little is known about the factors that affect the statistical power of complex multivariate analysis protocols for high-dimensional molecular signature development.We show that choices of specific components of the analysis (i.e., error metric, classifier, error estimator and event balancing) have large and compounding effects on statistical power. The effects are demonstrated empirically by an analysis of 7 of the largest microarray cancer outcome prediction datasets and supplementary simulations, and by contrasting them to prior analyses of the same data.THE FINDINGS OF THE PRESENT STUDY HAVE TWO IMPORTANT PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: First, high-throughput studies by avoiding under-powered data analysis protocols, can achieve substantial economies in sample required to demonstrate statistical significance of predictive signal. Factors that affect power are identified and studied. Much less sample than previously thought may be sufficient for exploratory studies as long as these factors are taken into consideration when designing and executing the analysis. Second, previous highly-cited claims that microarray assays may not be able to predict disease outcomes better than chance are shown by our experiments to be due to under-powered data analysis combined with inappropriate statistical tests

Long-term prognosis of breast cancer detected by mammography screening or other methods

Introduction Previous studies on breast cancer have shown that patients whose tumors are detected by mammography screening have a more favorable survival. However, little is known about the long-term prognostic impact of screen-detection. The purpose of the current study was to compare breast cancer-specific long-term survival between patients whose tumors were detected in mammography screening and those detected by other methods. Methods Breast cancer patients diagnosed within five specified geographical areas in Finland in 1991-92 were identified (n=2,936). Detailed clinical, treatment and outcome data as well as tissue samples were collected. Women with in situ carcinoma, distant metastases at the primary diagnosis and women who were not operated were excluded. Main analyses were made with exclusions of patients with other malignancy or contralateral breast cancer followed by to sensitivity analyses with different exclusion criterias. Median follow-up time was 15.4 years. Univariate and multivariate analysis of breast cancer-specific survival were performed. Results Of patients included in the main analyses (n=1,884) 22% (n=408) were screen-detected and 78% (n=1,476) were detected by other methods. Breast cancer-specific 15-year survival was 86% for patients with screen-detected cancer and 66% for patients diagnosed by other methods (p<0.0001, HR=2.91). Similar differences in survival were also observed in women at screening age (50-69 years) as well as in clinically important subgroups, such as patients with small tumors ([less than or equal to]1cm in diameter) and without nodal involvement (N0). Women with breast cancer diagnosed by screening mammography had a more favorable prognosis compared to those diagnosed outside of screening program following adjustments according to patient age, tumor size, axillary lymph node status, histological grade and hormone receptor status. Significant differences in the risk of having future contralateral breast cancer according to method of detection was not observed . Conclusions Breast cancer detection in mammography screening is an independent prognostic factor in breast cancer and is associated with a more favorable survival also in long-term follow-up.BioMed Central open acces

Risk of breast cancer in young women in relation to body size and weight gain in adolescence and early adulthood

Findings have been inconsistent on effects of adolescent body size and adult weight gain on risk of breast cancer in young women. These relations were examined in a population-based case control study of 1590 women less than 45 years of age newly diagnosed with breast cancer during 1990–1992 in three areas of the US and an age-matched control group of 1390 women. Height and weight were measured at interview and participants asked to recall information about earlier body size. Logistic regression was used to estimate the relative risk of breast cancer adjusted for other risk factors. Women who were either much heavier or lighter than average in adolescence or at age 20 were at reduced risk. Weight gain after age 20 resulted in reduced risk, but the effect was confined to early-stage and, more specifically, lower grade breast cancer. Neither the risk reduction nor the variation by breast cancer stage or grade was explained by the method of cancer detection or by prior mammography history. These findings suggest that relations between breast cancer risk in young women and body weight at different ages is complex and that the risk reduction with adult weight gain is confined to less aggressive cancers. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

The role of leadership in salespeople’s price negotiation behavior

Salespeople assume a key role in defending firms’ price levels in price negotiations with customers. The degree to which salespeople defend prices should critically depend upon their leaders’ influence. However, the influence of leadership on salespeople’s price defense behavior is barely understood, conceptually or empirically. Therefore, building on social learning theory, the authors propose that salespeople might adopt their leaders’ price defense behavior given a transformational leadership style. Furthermore, drawing on the contingency leadership perspective, the authors argue that this adoption fundamentally depends on three variables deduced from the motivation–ability–opportunity (MAO) framework, that is, salespeople’s learning motivation, negotiation efficacy, and perceived customer lenience. Results of a multi-level model using data from 92 salespeople and 264 salesperson–customer interactions confirm these predictions. The first to explore contingencies of salespeople’s adoption of their transformational leaders’ price negotiation behaviors, this study extends marketing theory and provides actionable guidance to practitioners

Impact of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) on prescription dug spending for children and adolescents: increasing relevance of health economic evidence

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the last decade, pharmaceutical spending for patients with attention-deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) has been escalating internationally.</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>First, to estimate future trends of ADHD-related drug expenditures from the perspectives of the statutory health insurance (SHI; Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung, GKV) in Germany and the National Health Service (NHS) in England, respectively, for children and adolescents age 6 to 18 years. Second, to evaluate the budgetary impact on individual prescribers (child and adolescent psychiatrists and pediatricians treating patients with ADHD) in Germany.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A model was developed to predict plausible scenarios of future pharmaceutical expenditures for treatment of ADHD. Model inputs were derived from demographic and epidemiological data, a literature review of past spending trends, and an analysis of new pharmaceutical products in development for ADHD. Only products in clinical development phase III or later were considered. Uncertainty was addressed by way of scenario analysis. For each jurisdiction, five scenarios used different assumptions of future diagnosis prevalence, treatment prevalence, rates of adoption and unit costs of novel drugs, and treatment intensity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Annual ADHD pharmacotherapy expenditures for children and adolescents will further increase and may exceed €310 m (D; E: ₤78 m) in 2012 (2002: ~€21.8 m; ~₤7.0 m). During this period, overall drug spending by individual physicians may increase 2.3- to 9.5-fold, resulting from the multiplicative effects of four variables: increased number of diagnosed cases, growing acceptance and intensity of pharmacotherapy, and higher unit costs of novel medications.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Even for an extreme low case scenario, a more than six-fold increase of pharmaceutical spending for children and adolescents is predicted over the decade from 2002 to 2012, from the perspectives of both the NHS in England and the GKV in Germany. This budgetary impact projection represents a partial analysis only because other expenditures are likely to rise as well, for instance those associated with physician services, including diagnosis and psychosocial treatment. Further to this, by definition budgetary impact analyses have little to nothing to say about clinical appropriateness and about value of money.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Providers of care for children and adolescents with ADHD should anticipate serious challenges related to the cost-effectiveness of interventions.</p