International Lessons in New Methods for Grading and Integrating Cost Effectiveness Evidence into Clinical Practice Guidelines

Economic evidence is influential in health technology assessment world-wide. Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPG) can enable economists to include economic information on health care provision. Application of economic evidence in CPGs, and its integration into clinical practice and national decision making is hampered by objections from professions, paucity of economic evidence or lack of policy commitment. The use of state-of-art economic methodologies will improve this. Economic evidence can be graded by 'checklists' to establish the best evidence for decision making given methodological rigor. New economic evaluation checklists, Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA) and other decision criteria enable health economists to impact on decision making world-wide. We analyse the methodologies for integrating economic evidence into CPG agencies globally, including the Agency of Health Research and Quality (AHRQ) in the USA, National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) and Australian political reforms. The Guidelines and Economists Network International (GENI) Board members from Australia, UK, Canada and Denmark presented the findings at the conference of the International Health Economists Association (IHEA) and we report conclusions and developments since. The Consolidated Guidelines for the Reporting of Economic Evaluations (CHEERS) 24 item check list can be used by AHRQ, NHMRC, other CPG and health organisations, in conjunction with the Drummond ten-point check list and a questionnaire that scores that checklist for grading studies, when assessing economic evidence. Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA) thresholds, opportunity cost and willingness-to-pay (WTP) are crucial issues for decision rules in CEA generally, including end-of-life therapies. Limitations of inter-rater reliability in checklists can be addressed by including more than one assessor to reach a consensus, especially when impacting on treatment decisions. We identify priority areas to generate economic evidence for CPGs by NHMRC, AHRQ, and other agencies. The evidence may cover demand for care issues such as involved time, logistics, innovation price, price sensitivity, substitutes and complements, WTP, absenteeism and presentism. Supply issues may include economies of scale, efficiency changes, and return on investment. Involved equity and efficiency measures may include cost-of-illness, disease burden, quality-of-life, budget impact, cost-effective ratios, net benefits and disparities in access and outcomes.. Priority setting remains essential and trade-off decisions between policy criteria can be based on MCDA, both in evidence based clinical medicine and in health planning

Single-valued harmonic polylogarithms and the multi-Regge limit

We argue that the natural functions for describing the multi-Regge limit of six-gluon scattering in planar N=4 super Yang-Mills theory are the single-valued harmonic polylogarithmic functions introduced by Brown. These functions depend on a single complex variable and its conjugate, (w,w*). Using these functions, and formulas due to Fadin, Lipatov and Prygarin, we determine the six-gluon MHV remainder function in the leading-logarithmic approximation (LLA) in this limit through ten loops, and the next-to-LLA (NLLA) terms through nine loops. In separate work, we have determined the symbol of the four-loop remainder function for general kinematics, up to 113 constants. Taking its multi-Regge limit and matching to our four-loop LLA and NLLA results, we fix all but one of the constants that survive in this limit. The multi-Regge limit factorizes in the variables (\nu,n) which are related to (w,w*) by a Fourier-Mellin transform. We can transform the single-valued harmonic polylogarithms to functions of (\nu,n) that incorporate harmonic sums, systematically through transcendental weight six. Combining this information with the four-loop results, we determine the eigenvalues of the BFKL kernel in the adjoint representation to NNLLA accuracy, and the MHV product of impact factors to NNNLLA accuracy, up to constants representing beyond-the-symbol terms and the one symbol-level constant. Remarkably, only derivatives of the polygamma function enter these results. Finally, the LLA approximation to the six-gluon NMHV amplitude is evaluated through ten loops.Comment: 71 pages, 2 figures, plus 10 ancillary files containing analytic expressions in Mathematica format. V2: Typos corrected and references added. V3: Typos corrected; assumption about single-Reggeon exchange made explici

Centre selection for clinical trials and the generalisability of results: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: The rationale for centre selection in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is often unclear but may have important implications for the generalisability of trial results. The aims of this study were to evaluate the factors which currently influence centre selection in RCTs and consider how generalisability considerations inform current and optimal practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mixed methods approach consisting of a systematic review and meta-summary of centre selection criteria reported in RCT protocols funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) initiated between January 2005-January 2012; and an online survey on the topic of current and optimal centre selection, distributed to professionals in the 48 UK Clinical Trials Units and 10 NIHR Research Design Services. The survey design was informed by the systematic review and by two focus groups conducted with trialists at the Birmingham Centre for Clinical Trials. 129 trial protocols were included in the systematic review, with a total target sample size in excess of 317,000 participants. The meta-summary identified 53 unique centre selection criteria. 78 protocols (60%) provided at least one criterion for centre selection, but only 31 (24%) protocols explicitly acknowledged generalisability. This is consistent with the survey findings (n = 70), where less than a third of participants reported generalisability as a key driver of centre selection in current practice. This contrasts with trialists' views on optimal practice, where generalisability in terms of clinical practice, population characteristics and economic results were prime considerations for 60% (n = 42), 57% (n = 40) and 46% (n = 32) of respondents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Centres are rarely enrolled in RCTs with an explicit view to external validity, although trialists acknowledge that incorporating generalisability in centre selection should ideally be more prominent. There is a need to operationalize 'generalisability' and incorporate it at the design stage of RCTs so that results are readily transferable to 'real world' practice

No triangles on the moduli space of maximally supersymmetric gauge theory

Maximally supersymmetric gauge theory in four dimensions has a remarkably simple S-matrix at the origin of its moduli space at both tree and loop level. This leads to the question what, if any, of this structure survives at the complement of this one point. Here this question is studied in detail at one loop for the branch of the moduli space parameterized by a vacuum expectation value for one complex scalar. Motivated by the parallel D-brane picture of spontaneous symmetry breaking a simple relation is demonstrated between the Lagrangian of broken super Yang-Mills theory and that of its higher dimensional unbroken cousin. Using this relation it is proven both through an on- as well as an off-shell method there are no so-called triangle coefficients in the natural basis of one-loop functions at any finite point of the moduli space for the theory under study. The off-shell method yields in addition absence of rational terms in a class of theories on the Coulomb branch which includes the special case of maximal supersymmetry. The results in this article provide direct field theory evidence for a recently proposed exact dual conformal symmetry motivated by the AdS/CFT correspondence.Comment: 39 pages, 4 figure

Multifactorial day hospital intervention to reduce falls in high risk older people in primary care: a multi-centre randomised controlled trial [ISRCTN46584556]

Falls in older people are a major public health concern in terms of morbidity, mortality and cost. Previous studies suggest that multifactorial interventions can reduce falls, and many geriatric day hospitals are now offering falls intervention programmes. However, no studies have investigated whether these programmes, based in the day hospital are effective, nor whether they can be successfully applied to high-risk older people screened in primary care. The hypothesis is that a multidisciplinary falls assessment and intervention at Day hospitals can reduce the incidence of falls in older people identified within primary care as being at high risk of falling. This will be tested by a pragmatic parallel-group randomised controlled trial in which the participants, identified as at high risk of falling, will be randomised into either the intervention Day hospital arm or to a control (current practice) arm. Those participants preferring not to enter the full randomised study will be offered the opportunity to complete brief diaries only at monthly intervals. This data will be used to validate the screening questionnaire. Three day hospitals (2 Nottingham, 1 Derby) will provide the interventions, and the University of Nottingham's Departments of Primary Care, the Division of Rehabilitation and Ageing Unit, and the Trent Institute for Health Service Research will provide the methodological and statistical expertise. Four hundred subjects will be randomised into the two arms. The primary outcome measure will be the rate of falls over one year. Secondary outcome measures will include the proportion of people experiencing at least one fall, the proportion of people experiencing recurrent falls (>1), injuries, fear of falling, quality of life, institutionalisation rates, and use of health services. Cost-effectiveness analyses will be performed to inform health commissioners about resource allocation issues. The importance of this trial is that the results may be applicable to any UK day hospital setting. SITES: General practices across Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire. Day hospitals: Derbyshire Royal Infirmary (Southern Derbyshire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust) Sherwood Day Service (Nottingham City Hospital Trust) Leengate Day Hospital (Queen's Medical Centre Nottingham University Hospital NHS Trust

Developing and applying heterogeneous phylogenetic models with XRate

Modeling sequence evolution on phylogenetic trees is a useful technique in computational biology. Especially powerful are models which take account of the heterogeneous nature of sequence evolution according to the "grammar" of the encoded gene features. However, beyond a modest level of model complexity, manual coding of models becomes prohibitively labor-intensive. We demonstrate, via a set of case studies, the new built-in model-prototyping capabilities of XRate (macros and Scheme extensions). These features allow rapid implementation of phylogenetic models which would have previously been far more labor-intensive. XRate's new capabilities for lineage-specific models, ancestral sequence reconstruction, and improved annotation output are also discussed. XRate's flexible model-specification capabilities and computational efficiency make it well-suited to developing and prototyping phylogenetic grammar models. XRate is available as part of the DART software package: http://biowiki.org/DART .Comment: 34 pages, 3 figures, glossary of XRate model terminolog

Eradication of chronic myeloid leukemia stem cells: a novel mathematical model predicts no therapeutic benefit of adding G-CSF to imatinib

Imatinib mesylate induces complete cytogenetic responses in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), yet many patients have detectable BCR-ABL transcripts in peripheral blood even after prolonged therapy. Bone marrow studies have shown that this residual disease resides within the stem cell compartment. Quiescence of leukemic stem cells has been suggested as a mechanism conferring insensitivity to imatinib, and exposure to the Granulocyte-Colony Stimulating Factor (G-CSF), together with imatinib, has led to a significant reduction in leukemic stem cells in vitro. In this paper, we design a novel mathematical model of stem cell quiescence to investigate the treatment response to imatinib and G-CSF. We find that the addition of G-CSF to an imatinib treatment protocol leads to observable effects only if the majority of leukemic stem cells are quiescent; otherwise it does not modulate the leukemic cell burden. The latter scenario is in agreement with clinical findings in a pilot study administering imatinib continuously or intermittently, with or without G-CSF (GIMI trial). Furthermore, our model predicts that the addition of G-CSF leads to a higher risk of resistance since it increases the production of cycling leukemic stem cells. Although the pilot study did not include enough patients to draw any conclusion with statistical significance, there were more cases of progression in the experimental arms as compared to continuous imatinib. Our results suggest that the additional use of G-CSF may be detrimental to patients in the clinic

Localisation of RNAs into the germ plasm of vitellogenic xenopus oocytes

We have studied the localisation of mRNAs in full-grown Xenopus laevis oocytes by injecting fluorescent RNAs, followed by confocal microscopy of the oocyte cortex. Concentrating on RNA encoding the Xenopus Nanos homologue, nanos1 (formerly Xcat2), we find that it consistently localised into aggregated germ plasm ribonucleoprotein (RNP) particles, independently of cytoskeletal integrity. This implies that a diffusion/entrapment-mediated mechanism is active, as previously reported for previtellogenic oocytes. Sometimes this was accompanied by localisation into scattered particles of the “late”, Vg1/VegT pathway; occasionally only late pathway localisation was seen. The Xpat RNA behaved in an identical fashion and for neither RNA was the localisation changed by any culture conditions tested. The identity of the labelled RNP aggregates as definitive germ plasm was confirmed by their inclusion of abundant mitochondria and co-localisation with the germ plasm protein Hermes. Further, the nanos1/Hermes RNP particles are interspersed with those containing the germ plasm protein Xpat. These aggregates may be followed into the germ plasm of unfertilized eggs, but with a notable reduction in its quantity, both in terms of injected molecules and endogenous structures. Our results conflict with previous reports that there is no RNA localisation in large oocytes, and that during mid-oogenesis even germ plasm RNAs localise exclusively by the late pathway. We find that in mid oogenesis nanos1 RNA also localises to germ plasm but also by the late pathway. Late pathway RNAs, Vg1 and VegT, also may localise into germ plasm. Our results support the view that mechanistically the two modes of localisation are extremely similar, and that in an injection experiment RNAs might utilise either pathway, the distinction in fates being very subtle and subject to variation. We discuss these results in relation to their biological significance and the results of others

Cost-effectiveness of HBV and HCV screening strategies:a systematic review of existing modelling techniques

Introduction: Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods: A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results: The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion: When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers

Persistent anthrax as a major driver of wildlife mortality in a tropical rainforest

Anthrax is a globally important animal disease and zoonosis. Despite this, our current knowledge of anthrax ecology is largely limited to arid ecosystems, where outbreaks are most commonly reported. Here we show that the dynamics of an anthrax-causing agent, Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis, in a tropical rainforest have severe consequences for local wildlife communities. Using data and samples collected over three decades, we show that rainforest anthrax is a persistent and widespread cause of death for a broad range of mammalian hosts. We predict that this pathogen will accelerate the decline and possibly result in the extirpation of local chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus) populations. We present the epidemiology of a cryptic pathogen and show that its presence has important implications for conservation