El Niño, tropical Atlantic warmth, and Atlantic hurricanes over the past 1500 years

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 880-883, doi:10.1038/nature08219.Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.M.E.M. and Z.Z. acknowledge support from the ATM programme of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0542356). J.P.D. acknowledges support from the EAR and OCE programmes of the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-0519118 and OCE-0402746), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences, and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research

A parasite-derived 68-mer peptide ameliorates autoimmune disease in murine models of Type 1 diabetes and multiple sclerosis

© 2016 cThe Author(s). Helminth parasites secrete molecules that potently modulate the immune responses of their hosts and, therefore, have potential for the treatment of immune-mediated human diseases. FhHDM-1, a 68-mer peptide secreted by the helminth parasite Fasciola hepatica, ameliorated disease in two different murine models of autoimmunity, type 1 diabetes and relapsing-remitting immune-mediated demyelination. Unexpectedly, FhHDM-1 treatment did not affect the proliferation of auto-antigen specific T cells or their production of cytokines. However, in both conditions, the reduction in clinical symptoms was associated with the absence of immune cell infiltrates in the target organ (islets and the brain tissue). Furthermore, after parenteral administration, the FhHDM-1 peptide interacted with macrophages and reduced their capacity to secrete pro-inflammatory cytokines, such as TNF and IL-6. We propose this inhibition of innate pro-inflammatory immune responses, which are central to the initiation of autoimmunity in both diseases, prevented the trafficking of autoreactive lymphocytes from the periphery to the site of autoimmunity (as opposed to directly modulating their function per se), and thus prevented tissue destruction. The ability of FhHDM-1 to modulate macrophage function, combined with its efficacy in disease prevention in multiple models, suggests that FhHDM-1 has considerable potential as a treatment for autoimmune diseases

Design of vaccine efficacy trials during public health emergencies

Public Health Emergencies (PHEs) provide a complex and challenging environment for vaccine evaluation. Under the R&D Blueprint Plan of Action, the World Health Organization (WHO) has convened a group of experts to agree on standard procedures to rapidly evaluate experimental vaccines during PHEs while maintaining the highest scientific and ethical standards. The Blueprint priority diseases, selected for their likelihood to cause PHEs and the lack of adequate medical countermeasures,were used to frame our methodological discussions. Here, we outline major vaccine study designs to be used in PHEs and summarize high-level recommendations for their use in this setting. We recognize that the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the Blueprint priority diseasesmay be highly uncertain and that the unique characteristics of the vaccines and outbreak settings may affect our study design. To address these challenges, our group underscores the need for novel, flexible,and responsive trial designs. We conclude that assignment to study groups using randomization is a key principle underlying rigorous study design and should be utilized except in exceptional circumstances. Advance planning for vaccine trial designs is critical for rapid and effective response to a PHE and to advance knowledge to address and mitigate future PHEs

Development of a Digital Lifestyle Modification Intervention for Use after Transient Ischaemic Attack or Minor Stroke: A Person-Based Approach.

This paper describes the development of the 'Brain-Fit' app, a digital secondary prevention intervention designed for use in the early phase after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke. The aim of the study was to explore perceptions on usability and relevance of the app in order to maximise user engagement and sustainability. Using the theory- and evidence-informed person-based approach, initial planning included a scoping review of qualitative evidence to identify barriers and facilitators to use of digital interventions in people with cardiovascular conditions and two focus groups exploring experiences and support needs of people (N = 32) with a history of TIA or minor stroke. The scoping review and focus group data were analysed thematically and findings were used to produce guiding principles, a behavioural analysis and explanatory logic model for the intervention. Optimisation included an additional focus group (N = 12) and individual think-aloud interviews (N = 8) to explore perspectives on content and usability of a prototype app. Overall, thematic analysis highlighted uncertainty about increasing physical activity and concerns that fatigue might limit participation. Realistic goals and progressive increases in activity were seen as important to improving self-confidence and personal control. The app was seen as a useful and flexible resource. Participant feedback from the optimisation phase was used to make modifications to the app to maximise engagement, including simplification of the goal setting and daily data entry sections. Further studies are required to examine efficacy and cost-effectiveness of this novel digital intervention

PhOTO Zebrafish: A Transgenic Resource for In Vivo Lineage Tracing during Development and Regeneration

Background: Elucidating the complex cell dynamics (divisions, movement, morphological changes, etc.) underlying embryonic development and adult tissue regeneration requires an efficient means to track cells with high fidelity in space and time. To satisfy this criterion, we developed a transgenic zebrafish line, called PhOTO, that allows photoconvertible optical tracking of nuclear and membrane dynamics in vivo. Methodology: PhOTO zebrafish ubiquitously express targeted blue fluorescent protein (FP) Cerulean and photoconvertible FP Dendra2 fusions, allowing for instantaneous, precise targeting and tracking of any number of cells using Dendra2 photoconversion while simultaneously monitoring global cell behavior and morphology. Expression persists through adulthood, making the PhOTO zebrafish an excellent tool for studying tissue regeneration: after tail fin amputation and photoconversion of a ~100µm stripe along the cut area, marked differences seen in how cells contribute to the new tissue give detailed insight into the dynamic process of regeneration. Photoconverted cells that contributed to the regenerate were separated into three distinct populations corresponding to the extent of cell division 7 days after amputation, and a subset of cells that divided the least were organized into an evenly spaced, linear orientation along the length of the newly regenerating fin. Conclusions/Significance: PhOTO zebrafish have wide applicability for lineage tracing at the systems-level in the early embryo as well as in the adult, making them ideal candidate tools for future research in development, traumatic injury and regeneration, cancer progression, and stem cell behavior

Integrated Polygenic Tool Substantially Enhances Coronary Artery Disease Prediction

BACKGROUND: There is considerable interest in whether genetic data can be used to improve standard cardiovascular disease risk calculators, as the latter are routinely used in clinical practice to manage preventative treatment. METHODS: Using the UK Biobank resource, we developed our own polygenic risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD). We used an additional 60 000 UK Biobank individuals to develop an integrated risk tool (IRT) that combined our polygenic risk score with established risk tools (either the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology pooled cohort equations [PCE] or UK QRISK3), and we tested our IRT in an additional, independent set of 186 451 UK Biobank individuals. RESULTS: The novel CAD polygenic risk score shows superior predictive power for CAD events, compared with other published polygenic risk scores, and is largely uncorrelated with PCE and QRISK3. When combined with PCE into an IRT, it has superior predictive accuracy. Overall, 10.4% of incident CAD cases were misclassified as low risk by PCE and correctly classified as high risk by the IRT, compared with 4.4% misclassified by the IRT and correctly classified by PCE. The overall net reclassification improvement for the IRT was 5.9% (95% CI, 4.7–7.0). When individuals were stratified into age-by-sex subgroups, the improvement was larger for all subgroups (range, 8.3%–15.4%), with the best performance in 40- to 54-year-old men (15.4% [95% CI, 11.6–19.3]). Comparable results were found using a different risk tool (QRISK3) and also a broader definition of cardiovascular disease. Use of the IRT is estimated to avoid up to 12 000 deaths in the United States over a 5-year period. CONCLUSIONS: An IRT that includes polygenic risk outperforms current risk stratification tools and offers greater opportunity for early interventions. Given the plummeting costs of genetic tests, future iterations of CAD risk tools would be enhanced with the addition of a person’s polygenic risk

Head CT is of limited diagnostic value in critically ill patients who remain unresponsive after discontinuation of sedation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prolonged sedation is common in mechanically ventilated patients and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We sought to determine the diagnostic value of head computed tomography (CT) in mechanically ventilated patients who remain unresponsive after discontinuation of sedation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A retrospective review of adult (age >18 years of age) patients consecutively admitted to the medical intensive care unit of a tertiary care medical center. Patients requiring mechanical ventilation for management of respiratory failure for longer than 72 hours were included in the study group. A group that did not have difficulty with awakening was included as a control.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median time after sedation was discontinued until a head CT was performed was 2 days (interquartile range 1.375–2 days). Majority (80%) of patients underwent head CT evaluation within the first 48 hours after discontinuation of sedation. Head CT was non-diagnostic in all but one patient who had a small subarachnoid hemorrhage. Twenty-five patients (60%) had a normal head CT. Head CT findings did not alter the management of any of the patients. The control group was similar to the experimental group with respect to demographics, etiology of respiratory failure and type of sedation used. However, while 37% of subjects in the control group had daily interruption of sedation, only 19% in the patient group had daily interruption of sedation (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In patients on mechanical ventilation for at least 72 hours and who remain unresponsive after sedative discontinuation and with a non-focal neurologic examination, head CT is performed early and is of very limited diagnostic utility. Routine use of daily interruption of sedation is used in a minority of patients outside of a clinical trial setting though it may decrease the frequency of unresponsiveness from prolonged sedation and the need for head CT in patients mechanically ventilated for a prolonged period.</p

vCJD risk in the Republic of Ireland

BACKGROUND: The Republic of Ireland has the second highest incidence of BSE worldwide. Only a single case of vCJD has been identified to date. METHODS: We estimate the total future number of clinical cases of vCJD using an established mathematical model, and based on infectivity of bovine tissue calculated from UK data and on the relative exposure to BSE contaminated meat. RESULTS: We estimate 1 future clinical case (95% CI 0 – 15) of vCJD in the Republic of Ireland. Irish exposure is from BSE infected indigenous beef products and from imported UK beef products. Additionally, 2.5% of the Irish population was exposed to UK beef through residing in the UK during the 'at-risk' period. The relative proportion of risk attributable to each of these three exposures individually is 2:2:1 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The low numbers of future vCJD cases estimated in this study is reassuring for the Irish population and for other countries with a similar level of BSE exposure

Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK

BACKGROUND: Past projections of the future course of the vCJD epidemic in the UK have shown considerable uncertainty, with wide confidence bounds. However, recent vCJD case data have indicated a decrease in the annual incidence of deaths over the past two years. METHODS: A detailed survival model is fitted to the 121 vCJD deaths reported by the end of 2002 stratified by age and calendar time to obtain projections of future incidence. The model is additionally fitted to recent results from a survey of appendix tissues. RESULTS: Our results show a substantial decrease in the uncertainty of the future course of the primary epidemic in the susceptible genotype (MM-homozygous at codon 129 of the prion protein gene), with a best estimate of 40 future deaths (95% prediction interval 9–540) based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone. Additional fitting of the appendix data increases these estimates (best estimate 100, 95% prediction interval 10–2,600) but remains lower than previous projections. CONCLUSIONS: The primary vCJD epidemic in the known susceptible genotype in the UK appears to be in decline