Scenario-based requirements elicitation for user-centric explainable AI

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) develops technical explanation methods and enable interpretability for human stakeholders on why Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models provide certain predictions. However, the trust of those stakeholders into AI models and explanations is still an issue, especially domain experts, who are knowledgeable about their domain but not AI inner workings. Social and user-centric XAI research states it is essential to understand the stakeholder’s requirements to provide explanations tailored to their needs, and enhance their trust in working with AI models. Scenario-based design and requirements elicitation can help bridge the gap between social and operational aspects of a stakeholder early before the adoption of information systems and identify its real problem and practices generating user requirements. Nevertheless, it is still rarely explored the adoption of scenarios in XAI, especially in the domain of fraud detection to supporting experts who are about to work with AI models. We demonstrate the usage of scenario-based requirements elicitation for XAI in a fraud detection context, and develop scenarios derived with experts in banking fraud. We discuss how those scenarios can be adopted to identify user or expert requirements for appropriate explanations in his daily operations and to make decisions on reviewing fraudulent cases in banking. The generalizability of the scenarios for further adoption is validated through a systematic literature review in domains of XAI and visual analytics for fraud detection

Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact

Recognizing the imperative to evaluate species recovery and conservation impact, in 2012 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) called for development of a “Green List of Species” (now the IUCN Green Status of Species). A draft Green Status framework for assessing species’ progress toward recovery, published in 2018, proposed 2 separate but interlinked components: a standardized method (i.e., measurement against benchmarks of species’ viability, functionality, and preimpact distribution) to determine current species recovery status (herein species recovery score) and application of that method to estimate past and potential future impacts of conservation based on 4 metrics (conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential). We tested the framework with 181 species representing diverse taxa, life histories, biomes, and IUCN Red List categories (extinction risk). Based on the observed distribution of species’ recovery scores, we propose the following species recovery categories: fully recovered, slightly depleted, moderately depleted, largely depleted, critically depleted, extinct in the wild, and indeterminate. Fifty-nine percent of tested species were considered largely or critically depleted. Although there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, variation was considerable. Some species in lower risk categories were assessed as farther from recovery than those at higher risk. This emphasizes that species recovery is conceptually different from extinction risk and reinforces the utility of the IUCN Green Status of Species to more fully understand species conservation status. Although extinction risk did not predict conservation legacy, conservation dependence, or conservation gain, it was positively correlated with recovery potential. Only 1.7% of tested species were categorized as zero across all 4 of these conservation impact metrics, indicating that conservation has, or will, play a role in improving or maintaining species status for the vast majority of these species. Based on our results, we devised an updated assessment framework that introduces the option of using a dynamic baseline to assess future impacts of conservation over the short term to avoid misleading results which were generated in a small number of cases, and redefines short term as 10 years to better align with conservation planning. These changes are reflected in the IUCN Green Status of Species Standard

Dissecting the Shared Genetic Architecture of Suicide Attempt, Psychiatric Disorders, and Known Risk Factors

BACKGROUND: Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, and nonfatal suicide attempts, which occur far more frequently, are a major source of disability and social and economic burden. Both have substantial genetic etiology, which is partially shared and partially distinct from that of related psychiatric disorders. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 29,782 suicide attempt (SA) cases and 519,961 controls in the International Suicide Genetics Consortium (ISGC). The GWAS of SA was conditioned on psychiatric disorders using GWAS summary statistics via multitrait-based conditional and joint analysis, to remove genetic effects on SA mediated by psychiatric disorders. We investigated the shared and divergent genetic architectures of SA, psychiatric disorders, and other known risk factors. RESULTS: Two loci reached genome-wide significance for SA: the major histocompatibility complex and an intergenic locus on chromosome 7, the latter of which remained associated with SA after conditioning on psychiatric disorders and replicated in an independent cohort from the Million Veteran Program. This locus has been implicated in risk-taking behavior, smoking, and insomnia. SA showed strong genetic correlation with psychiatric disorders, particularly major depression, and also with smoking, pain, risk-taking behavior, sleep disturbances, lower educational attainment, reproductive traits, lower socioeconomic status, and poorer general health. After conditioning on psychiatric disorders, the genetic correlations between SA and psychiatric disorders decreased, whereas those with nonpsychiatric traits remained largely unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Our results identify a risk locus that contributes more strongly to SA than other phenotypes and suggest a shared underlying biology between SA and known risk factors that is not mediated by psychiatric disorders

Evidence of causal effect of major depression on alcohol dependence: findings from the psychiatric genomics consortium

BACKGROUND Despite established clinical associations among major depression (MD), alcohol dependence (AD), and alcohol consumption (AC), the nature of the causal relationship between them is not completely understood. We leveraged genome-wide data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) and UK Biobank to test for the presence of shared genetic mechanisms and causal relationships among MD, AD, and AC. METHODS Linkage disequilibrium score regression and Mendelian randomization (MR) were performed using genome-wide data from the PGC (MD: 135 458 cases and 344 901 controls; AD: 10 206 cases and 28 480 controls) and UK Biobank (AC-frequency: 438 308 individuals; AC-quantity: 307 098 individuals). RESULTS Positive genetic correlation was observed between MD and AD (rgMD−AD = + 0.47, P = 6.6 × 10−10). AC-quantity showed positive genetic correlation with both AD (rgAD−AC quantity = + 0.75, P = 1.8 × 10−14) and MD (rgMD−AC quantity = + 0.14, P = 2.9 × 10−7), while there was negative correlation of AC-frequency with MD (rgMD−AC frequency = −0.17, P = 1.5 × 10−10) and a non-significant result with AD. MR analyses confirmed the presence of pleiotropy among these four traits. However, the MD-AD results reflect a mediated-pleiotropy mechanism (i.e. causal relationship) with an effect of MD on AD (beta = 0.28, P = 1.29 × 10−6). There was no evidence for reverse causation. CONCLUSION This study supports a causal role for genetic liability of MD on AD based on genetic datasets including thousands of individuals. Understanding mechanisms underlying MD-AD comorbidity addresses important public health concerns and has the potential to facilitate prevention and intervention efforts

Persistence and dispersal in a Southern Hemisphere glaciated landscape: the phylogeography of the spotted snow skink (Niveoscincus ocellatus) in Tasmania

BACKGROUND: The aim of this research was to identify the effects of Pleistocene climate change on the distribution of fauna in Tasmania, and contrast this with biotic responses in other temperate regions in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere that experienced glacial activity during this epoch. This was achieved by examining the phylogeographic patterns in a widely distributed Tasmanian endemic reptile, Niveoscincus ocellatus. 204 individuals from 29 populations across the distributional range of N. ocellatus were surveyed for variation at two mitochondrial genes (ND2, ND4), and two nuclear genes (β-globin, RPS8). Phylogenetic relationships were reconstructed using a range of methods (maximum parsimony, Bayesian inference and haplotype networks), and the demographic histories of populations were assessed (AMOVA, Tajima’s D, Fu’s Fs, mismatch distributions, extended Bayesian skyline plots, and relaxed random walk analyses). RESULTS: There was a high degree of mitochondrial haplotype diversity (96 unique haplotypes) and phylogeographic structure, where spatially distinct groups were associated with Tasmania’s Northeast and a large area covering Southeast and Central Tasmania. Phylogeographic structure was also present within each major group, but the degree varied regionally, being highest in the Northeast. Only the Southeastern group had a signature of demographic expansion, occurring during the Pleistocene but post-dating the Last Glacial Maximum. In contrast, nuclear DNA had low levels of variation and a lack of phylogeographic structure, and further loci should be surveyed to corroborate the mitochondrial inferences. CONCLUSIONS: The phylogeographic patterns of N. ocellatus indicate Pleistocene range and demographic expansion in N. ocellatus, particularly in the Southeast and Central areas of Tasmania. Expansion in Central and Southeastern areas appears to have been more recent in both demographic and spatial contexts, than in Northeast Tasmania, which is consistent with inferences for other taxa of greater stability and persistence in Northeast Tasmania during the Last Glacial Maximum. These phylogeographic patterns indicate contrasting demographic histories of populations in close proximity to areas directly affected by glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere during the LGM. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0397-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Genetic variants linked to education predict longevity

Educational attainment is associated with many health outcomes, including longevity. It is also known to be substantially heritable. Here, we used data from three large genetic epidemiology cohort studies (Generation Scotland, n = ∼17,000; UK Biobank, n = ∼115,000; and the Estonian Biobank, n = ∼6,000) to test whether education-linked genetic variants can predict lifespan length. We did so by using cohort members’ polygenic profile score for education to predict their parents’ longevity. Across the three cohorts, meta-analysis showed that a 1 SD higher polygenic education score was associated with ∼2.7% lower mortality risk for both mothers (total ndeaths = 79,702) and ∼2.4% lower risk for fathers (total ndeaths = 97,630). On average, the parents of offspring in the upper third of the polygenic score distribution lived 0.55 y longer compared with those of offspring in the lower third. Overall, these results indicate that the genetic contributions to educational attainment are useful in the prediction of human longevity.</p