Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

Engineering self-organising helium bubble lattices in tungsten

The self-organisation of void and gas bubbles in solids into a superlattices is an intriguing nanoscale phenomenon. Despite the discovery of these lattices 30 years ago, the atomistics behind the ordering mechanisms responsible for the formation of these nanostructures are yet to be fully elucidated. Here we report on the direct observation via transmission electron microscopy of the formation of bubble lattices under He+ ion bombardment. By careful control of the irradiation conditions, it has been possible to engineer the bubble size and spacing of the superlattice leading to important conclusions about the significance of vacancy supply in determining the physical characteristics of the system. Furthermore, no bubble lattice alignment was observed in the directions pointing to a key driving mechanism for the formation of these ordered nanostructures being the two-dimensional diffusion of self-interstitial atoms

Predictors of outcome in infant and toddlers functional or behavioral disorders after a brief parent–infant psychotherapy

The efficacy of parent–child psychotherapies is widely recognized today. There are, however, less data on predictive factors for outcome in infants and toddlers and their parents. The aim of this study was to highlight predictive factors for outcome after a brief psychotherapy in a population of 49 infants and toddlers aged 3–30 months presenting functional or behavioral disorders. Two assessments were performed, the first before treatment and the second a month after the end of the therapy. These assessments included an evaluation of the child’s symptoms, and of depressive or anxiety symptoms in the parents. The assessments after therapy show complete or partial improvement in the child’s symptoms for nearly three quarters, and a decrease in the number of anxious and depressive mothers, and also in the number of depressive fathers. Three independent factors appear as predictive of unfavorable outcome for the child: frequency and intensity of behavioral problems and fears, and the absence of the father at more than two-thirds of consultations. The outcome for the mother is associated solely with her anxiety score at the start of the therapy. This study underlines the particular difficulties involved in the treatment of infants and toddlers presenting behavioral disturbances and emotional difficulties, and the value of involving the father in treatment

Relative Impacts of Adult Movement, Larval Dispersal and Harvester Movement on the Effectiveness of Reserve Networks

Movement of individuals is a critical factor determining the effectiveness of reserve networks. Marine reserves have historically been used for the management of species that are sedentary as adults, and, therefore, larval dispersal has been a major focus of marine-reserve research. The push to use marine reserves for managing pelagic and demersal species poses significant questions regarding their utility for highly-mobile species. Here, a simple conceptual metapopulation model is developed to provide a rigorous comparison of the functioning of reserve networks for populations with different admixtures of larval dispersal and adult movement in a home range. We find that adult movement produces significantly lower persistence than larval dispersal, all other factors being equal. Furthermore, redistribution of harvest effort previously in reserves to remaining fished areas (‘fishery squeeze’) and fishing along reserve borders (‘fishing-the-line’) considerably reduce persistence and harvests for populations mobile as adults, while they only marginally changes results for populations with dispersing larvae. Our results also indicate that adult home-range movement and larval dispersal are not simply additive processes, but rather that populations possessing both modes of movement have lower persistence than equivalent populations having the same amount of ‘total movement’ (sum of larval and adult movement spatial scales) in either larval dispersal or adult movement alone

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into different pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, , and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and ττ) are included in this kind of combination for the first time. A simplified model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confidence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion